> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://goodoil.news/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # A Double Cliffhanger for New Zealand - URL: https://goodoil.news/a-double-cliffhanger-for-new-zealand/ - Published: 2026-10-07T21:30:00.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-07T21:29:59.000Z - Description: NZ voters are in a unique situation. MMP rules and consistent polling indicates we may get a hung parliament or a coalition with the slimmest of margins - but will it be red or blue? - Author: Reproduced with permission - Tags: NZ Politics, Election 2026 [**Penny Marie**](https://pennymarie.substack.com/p/overhangs-and-split-votes-a-double) and Paul Mathews, an independent political analyst. The split vote strategy that’s currently rampaging through NZ media and political commentators is based around this premise… > ***Electorate Vote* for the National Party candidate** > **and** > **A *Party Vote* for NZ First or ACT.** Analysis suggests that this split-vote strategy provides the right-bloc ***two routes to victory.*** ### **Te Pāti Māori led the way** Te Pāti Māori were well out in front on this **‘overhang’** strategy. They have been explicitly telling their supporters to split their vote for months now. They have doubled down this week, saying they **only** want the *Electorate Vote* and their supporters are free to give their *Party Vote* to another party. There now seems to be a push for that diverted *Party Vote* to go to the Greens. It is a smart move. Te Pāti Māori worked out that they would win more electorates than what the *Party Vote* will entitle them to. An aggregate of polls has their *Party Vote* at two per cent. That means there will be an overhang for Te Pāti Māori, assuming they win back the four seats they currently hold (most probable). They will win two seats more than what their popular support, the *Party Vote*, entitles them to. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5MNC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc5e537f5-60bd-4bdf-9871-19c96c896630_1920x1080.png) Accordingly, a *Party Vote* for Te Pāti Māori is a wasted vote. Even another 30,000 *Party Votes* above that two per cent poll number would give them no further seats. Te Pāti Māori are front-footing that. If their supporters split their vote as asked, their *Party Vot*e might dip to one per cent, or even close to zero. That does not matter at all because that “lost” *Party Vote* is not lost at all. It is strategically diverted to *Party Votes* for an aligned left-bloc party. > **This does no damage to Te Pāti Māori at all. In fact, it *increases* its chances of being part of the next government.** ### **Current polls: Who wins?** Unlike Te Pāti Māori, the National Party have not embraced the reality of their dismal poll results and are not encouraging their supporters to split their vote. This appears foolish and risks trading a slightly higher *Party Vote* in a few weeks time for three years in opposition to a four-party left-bloc coalition government. Here is the reality that National is not facing up to. The aggregate polls currently have the left-bloc in position to win at this election: ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qYWe!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe3c237a6-31b8-406c-acba-dbeac4df8267_1920x1080.png) Using Sainte-Laguë modelling and assumes one per cent waste of vote. ###### *Source: election2026.nz* [*NZ Election 2026 Poll Tracker — Seats, Coalitions & Forecast*](https://election2026.nz/?ref=goodoil.news) *(as at 1 October 2026)* ###### **A quick note on the accuracy of polls:* A proportional system is based on nationwide party vote, therefore aggregate polls in New Zealand tend to be more accurate than in other electoral systems (like in the the US or UK), where individual seat dynamics create significant distortion. Historically, aggregate polls like the one above have predicted broad bloc outcomes in MMP elections with a high degree of accuracy.* ### **The overhang to the rescue for the right-bloc** > **What the above table does not acknowledge is that the National Party is also highly likely to have an *overhang* in the coming election.** The table shows that a *Party Vote* of 28.7 per cent for National would entitle them to 35 seats in parliament. The good news for National and the right-bloc is that they are likely to win more seats than this in the electorate races. They currently hold 44 electorate seats in parliament. It appears likely they will win around 38 electorate seats this time round. Commentators seem to be suggesting somewhere between 36 and 40 seats is the most likely outcome. ![National Party Overhang](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aSkC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb686ccce-f1a8-4310-b880-a3073e15f277_1920x1080.png "National Party Overhang") If the 38-seat prediction is correct that means there will be an overhang for National. It would give them, and more importantly, the right-bloc, three more seats than what their popular support, the *Party Vote*, entails them to. > **Good news but not good enough. That would mean 63 seats for the left-bloc and 62 seats for the right-bloc (in a parliament of 125 seats).** ### **Two routes to victory for the right-bloc** ### ROUTE ONE To be successful, National’s insistence on the traditional “two-ticks blue” strategy requires a dramatic upsurge in popular support with a few weeks until election day – early voting starts sooner. This upsurge would need to come from somewhere other than those currently intending to vote for ACT or NZ First because if support comes from those parties it does not increase the right-bloc vote. > **This upsurge is simply NOT going to happen. No credible pollster, analyst or commentator has suggested otherwise.** The vote split strategy, by contrast, provides the National Party ***two routes to victory without any additional voters being converted to the right-bloc.*** Firstly, National can win more than 38 electorate seats. Each additional electorate win is an extra seat for the right-bloc. There are several close electorate races, such as Wigram, where National could add to their seat tally with a greater focus on the electorate vote by National or by savvy NZ First and ACT supporters voting for the National candidate. Win 39 seats and the right-bloc goes to 63 seats (a hung parliament). > ***ROUTE ONE: Win 40 seats – and the right-bloc goes to 64 seats, one ahead of the left-block.*** ### ROUTE TWO > ***ROUTE TWO: Divert Party Votes to NZ First or ACT.*** This is where the savvy National Party supporters vote for NZ First or ACT. Not out of disloyalty, but out of necessity. In doing so the *Party Vote* for the National Party may plummet; however, in this scenario each *Party Vote* counts. If National Party supporters divert two per cent of the *Party Vote*, the National Party still wins the 38/39/40 electorate seats. However, the two per cent of *Party Vote* will count towards additional seats for the right block – sitting with NZ First and/or ACT. As an example if National drops to 26.7 per cent of the vote they still have all their electorate seats. However, if this causes NZ First to lift one per cent to 11.1 per cent and ACT by one per cent to 10.5 per cent that translates to two additional list seats for the right-bloc. That is enough to form a coalition government on the right. No more votes for the right, just the same number of votes distributed more wisely. The beauty of the split-vote strategy is that one route to victory does not impinge on the other. A split vote by a National Party supporter has the effect of boosting both routes simultaneously. The candidate vote obviously helps elect National Party MPs in as many electorates as possible. The diverted *Party Vote* counts towards the right’s overall seat tally as well. - By splitting the two votes, both votes count. - A Party Vote for National is a wasted vote in the overhang scenario that this election is being contested in. - A split vote makes both votes count. This article was originally published by [Penny Marie NZ](https://pennymarie.substack.com/p/overhangs-and-split-votes-a-double).