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# A True MMP Election at Last
- URL: https://goodoil.news/a-true-mmp-election-at-last/
- Published: 2026-11-03T20:00:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-11-03T20:00:00.000Z
- Description: What voters on the right are saying by splitting their votes is ‘No, we don’t want a strong National Party: we want ACT and NZ First to have a bigger say in post-election negotiations and also over the next term.’
- Author: JC
- Tags: NZ Politics, Election 2026

This election, the entire landscape has changed but some of the thinking surrounding the landscape hasn’t. Under MMP, elections were not supposed to be a two-horse race where National or Labour dominated to see who passed the post first. The initial MMP election was held on 12 October 1996\. This election will be the tenth one under the MMP system. For some people, especially long-term dyed in the wool National supporters, this is hard to get their heads around. 

In reality it isn’t. There is nothing illegal in what the Māori Party is doing to engineer the outcome they want. There is also nothing wrong with what those on the right are doing to ensure they get the outcome they want. Under MMP, the two-vote mechanism was not designed so as one party got both every time – it was designed to give choice, otherwise known as the split vote. Some of us have been taking advantage of this opportunity ever since MMP came into being. This has led to more parties, more ideas and a more diverse parliament. 

One can debate whether MMP is a good or bad thing but it is, for whatever reasons, what the country voted for. There has been no angst expressed because the system has allowed National or Labour to top up their electorate wins with list MPs so as to reflect their overall percentage of their party’s vote. Until now. Shock horror: the way MMP is supposed to work is now the front and centre of this election. The media don’t want to talk about it because it is harmful to the leftist bias they wish to infect the minds of the voters with but Jack Tame reluctantly addressed it briefly while discussing the last 1News poll.

The concept of split voting is certainly paying off on the left, where the party vote for the Māori Party has virtually disappeared. An overhang for the left is definitely in the offing. Voters on the right have a non-negotiable responsibility to cancel out the left’s overhang in order to prevent New Zealand becoming the next Venezuela. Trump has enough on his hands without having to also come and rescue this country. Mind you, if he did, we’d be drilling tomorrow and out of the WHO and the nonsensical Paris Climate Accord. Money saved bigly!

National is kicking up the most noise about tactical voting but they don’t seem to realise a number of things: First, MMP replaced FPP for this very reason. Second, it was to prevent a one-party dominance on either the left or right. This election is absolute proof of that. Third, the irony is National has brought about this situation all by itself; they have underperformed. Not in every area, but most. This is reflected in the polls, in which I have little faith but, in National’s case, they are too consistent to be ignored.

The ‘Two Ticks Blue’ campaign National is running risks courting suicide. The poll numbers tell the story. With a week to go there is absolutely no sign of National getting the number of party votes it needs to see even one list MP enter parliament.

John Key says split voting is the opposite of clever. Sorry, believe me, the opposite is the case – it is the key.

This election shows those in National advocating two ticks blue are living in the past – they believe we need a strong National Party. What voters on the right are saying by splitting their votes is ‘No, we don’t want a strong National Party: we want ACT and NZ First to have a bigger say in post-election negotiations and also over the next term.’ That is precisely what this election will deliver – an MMP result.

So who is likely to benefit? The Māori Party on the left and ACT and NZ First on the right. If the left happen to gain the treasury benches courtesy of the Māori Party’s deliberately constructed overhang (perfectly legal, remember), just stop and think for a moment of the unimaginable situation Hipkins will find himself in. Think of the types of demands and rorts these racists will want to extract. This is a nightmare that must be avoided at all costs and the reality is ‘two ticks blue’ could actually deliver it.

Here’s what everyone needs to understand about this election due to National’s poor party vote performance. The electorate vote should be National, but your party vote should be used in such a way that you get the coalition you want. In other words your party vote is not for an individual party but is more a ‘block’ vote trying to ensure the end result is what you want the coalition to look like. The minor parties are in the ascendancy and have more say at the end of the day.

National Party strategists may have not woken up to it but this is happening everywhere. Even under FPP the minor parties, right-wing populist parties, are very much coming into their own: Reform in the UK, One Nation in Australia, NZ First here and across Europe also. These are all right-leaning parties and the one thing that, more than anything, is sending people to these parties is immigration. Shane Jones’ “butter chicken tsunami” remark may be an exaggeration, but nevertheless it resonates with a large number of voters.

My predictions for the election outcome will be in my next article. Happy vote splitting!