> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://goodoil.news/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # A Year after Myanmar’s Coup, the Military Still Lacks Control and the Country Is Sliding into an Intractable Civil War - URL: https://goodoil.news/a-year-after-myanmars-coup-the-military-still-lacks-control-and-the-country-is-sliding-into-an-intractable-civil-war/ - Published: 2022-02-01T21:30:00.000Z - Updated: 2022-02-01T03:58:15.000Z - Author: Guest Post - Tags: News, Politics, World Politics, #wp, #wp-post, #Import 2024-07-17 01:12 **Nicholas Farrelly** University of Tasmania **Adam Simpson** University of South Australia *Nicholas Farrelly is Professor and Head of Social Sciences at the University of Tasmania.* *Dr Adam Simpson is Senior Lecturer in International Studies in Justice & Society, University of South Australia.* --- In the year since Myanmar’s [coup](https://theconversation.com/myanmars-military-reverts-to-its-old-strong-arm-behaviour-and-the-country-takes-a-major-step-backwards-154368?ref=goodoil.news) on February 1 2021, the country’s prospects have deteriorated sharply, with untold [misery](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1lKXKT%5Faglt1kAnKPOMfLyalog%5Fj2gvZT/view?ref=goodoil.news) for millions: deaths, arrests, detention, sickness, displacement, poverty and trauma. The military’s misjudgement of the popular mood means the coup leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, and his lieutenants still have only a loose grip on power. The regime’s heavy-handed and often callous response to the initially peaceful defiance also means protest groups have been forced underground, where they have linked up with the exiled [National Unity Government](https://www.nugmyanmar.org/en/?ref=goodoil.news). The [ongoing detention](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-10/aung-san-suu-kyi-ousted-myanmar-leader-jail-sentence/100748118?ref=goodoil.news) of the [eternally popular](https://theconversation.com/aung-san-suu-kyi-wins-big-in-myanmars-elections-but-will-it-bring-peace-or-restore-her-reputation-abroad-149619?ref=goodoil.news) State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, President Win Myint, and scores of other senior figures in the National League for Democracy government, including Australian economics advisor [Professor Sean Turnell](https://theconversation.com/fate-of-detained-australian-economist-sean-turnell-may-be-tied-to-aung-sung-suu-kyi-166516?ref=goodoil.news), has required [a new generation of activists and leaders](https://theconversation.com/with-aung-san-suu-kyi-facing-prison-myanmars-opposition-is-leaderless-desperate-and-ready-to-fight-162428?ref=goodoil.news) to step up the resistance both on the ground and online. While many of these activists have successfully evaded arrest, and some have found sanctuary with sympathetic ethnic armed groups in the borderlands, [others have been detained](https://theconversation.com/as-killings-beatings-and-disappearances-escalate-whats-the-end-game-in-myanmar-156752?ref=goodoil.news) and paraded as “terrorists”. They then disappear deep into the regime’s prisons and [torture centres](https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/10/28/new-reports-torture-myanmar?ref=goodoil.news). To confront the military regime takes untold courage. This includes the countless supporters who are not on the front line, but quietly use their networks, resources and skills to undermine the confidence of the dictatorship. #### A New and Torrid Civil War With the regime’s [brutality](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/28/myanmar-massacre-two-save-the-children-staff-among-dead?ref=goodoil.news) on daily display, peaceful protests have been largely abandoned as a tactic. There are now relentless counterattacks by ethnic armies and the new [People’s Defence Force](https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/b170-deadly-stalemate-post-coup-myanmar?ref=goodoil.news), which mean it is a dangerous time to be wearing a Myanmar army or police uniform, or even to be serving in the government in a civilian role. [Assassinations](https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/officials-06172021175951.html?ref=goodoil.news) and other reprisals are now a part of the unpredictable security landscape. The military needs to keep up its fighting strength, although it has [reportedly](https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-military-struggling-to-recruit-new-officers.html?ref=goodoil.news) struggled to recruit fresh cadets for its top training school. However, it has been securing new weapons from [Russia](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/russia-myanmar-cooperating-military-equipment-supplies-ifax-2021-07-21/?ref=goodoil.news) and [China](https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/supplying-02182021091648.html?ref=goodoil.news). Attack planes and helicopters are regularly used against civilian populations. The military has even been accused of [destroying](https://thediplomat.com/2021/12/save-the-children-confirms-two-staff-killed-in-myanmar-massacre/?ref=goodoil.news) unarmed humanitarian convoys. Military commanders at every level must now fear the prospect of being held to account for this violence, whether by their own people or a future international tribunal. Historically, Myanmar military units have acted with impunity in remote ethnic minority regions far from the gaze of journalists and civil society. Much of the fighting in the past year, however, has been well-documented, with special attention to actions that could be deemed war crimes. In [Chin State](https://www.myanmar-now.org/en/news/bodies-of-10-civilians-used-as-human-shields-discovered-in-matupi?ref=goodoil.news) and [Sagaing Region](https://www.myanmar-now.org/en/news/soldiers-kill-and-burn-five-people-in-sagaing-region-village-after-clashes-with-pdf?ref=goodoil.news), both sites of alleged atrocities against civilians, tens of thousands of people have been newly displaced and now hunker down under the protection of the People’s Defence Forces. They join the [Rohingya](https://theconversation.com/after-the-rohingya-crisis-aung-san-suu-kyi-will-come-to-the-asean-summit-with-her-reputation-tarnished-92823?ref=goodoil.news) and others who have suffered similar fates too often over the years. #### Deteriorating Conditions and Weak Responses While the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has discussed a diplomatic response to the deteriorating situation, there are no indications the military leadership is listening to advice or considering surrendering its power. Instead, the generals talk vaguely of scheduling an election in 2023. With an ailing economy, a [public health care system](https://www.msf.org/responding-covid-19-myanmar-during-political-crisis?ref=goodoil.news) in disarray and a shattered international reputation, Myanmar faces a difficult path back from this crisis. Even if the generals eventually succeed in consolidating their rule – a big “if” – they will remain pariahs for their unflinching attacks on their own people. There is now also [momentum](https://www.sbs.com.au/news/rebel-commanders-call-for-international-intervention-in-myanmar-s-civil-war/70874c49-1f77-4e0f-aed5-5d7d585caa50?ref=goodoil.news) behind the resistance forces and, for the first time in many decades, it is plausible the army could be defeated. However, it is more likely Myanmar’s humanitarian, political and security situation continues to deteriorate in the months ahead, with large-scale battles, tit-for-tat ambushes, and continued military campaigns against civilians. Under these trying and tragic circumstances, the [regional and global diplomatic response](https://theconversation.com/we-know-how-to-cut-off-the-financial-valve-to-myanmars-military-the-world-just-needs-the-resolve-to-act-158220?ref=goodoil.news) is vital. So far, ASEAN has frustratingly vacillated between [important](https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/asean-finds-its-voice-as-a-military-offensive-looms-in-myanmar/?ref=goodoil.news) expressions of [disapproval](https://theconversation.com/asean-rebuffs-myanmars-military-junta-as-aung-san-suu-kyi-faces-long-jail-term-172619?ref=goodoil.news) and its more traditional stance of [non-interference](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/08/cambodian-pm-hun-sens-visit-with-myanmar-military-chief-sparks-protests?ref=goodoil.news) in members’ internal affairs. Russia, meanwhile, has provided the coup leaders with [direct support](https://www.irrawaddy.com/specials/myanmar-and-russias-close-post-coup-relationship.html?ref=goodoil.news), such as arms and firm diplomatic endorsement. China appears to have taken a more watchful posture, but also recently [transferred](https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2021/12/30/china-transfers-secondhand-submarine-to-myanmar/?ref=goodoil.news) a second-hand submarine to the junta. Beijing is no doubt concerned about how an ongoing civil war could imperil its interests, including the gas and oil pipelines running from Myanmar’s coast to China’s Yunnan province. It has the [extra challenge](https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/kio-suspends-military-operations-near-northern-border-at-chinas-request.html?ref=goodoil.news) of dealing with the often unruly borderland populated by some of Myanmar’s most powerful armed groups. #### Where Does It End? For the western democracies, and for the more progressive ASEAN countries, the best medium-term outcome is the military regime being forced from power in a negotiated settlement. This could limit the bloodshed, but many people in Myanmar are now fully committed to defeating the junta on the battlefield. This would require western countries to recognise the National Unity government and offer the People’s Defence Force more humanitarian, and perhaps military, support. Without that type of backing, the NUG is likely to remain isolated and under-resourced against the relative might of the Myanmar military machine. Getting the right balance will be difficult for western governments sympathetic to the anti-coup forces, but mindful that ill-timed moves against the military will only generate more retribution against civilians. And this could spiral into a great power proxy war. On the other hand, this risk could give China and other players reason to proceed more cautiously. China can hardly afford a global flashpoint on its backdoor. It is an immense pity the people of Myanmar now carry such a heavy burden in fighting for the future of their country. International observers can provide material support for the opposition movement or push their governments to act more strongly in response to the crimes against humanity being committed in Myanmar. But the hard reality, at this moment in geopolitics, is Myanmar’s people will be the ultimate authors of their own destiny. [Nicholas Farrelly](https://theconversation.com/profiles/nicholas-farrelly-2830?ref=goodoil.news), Professor and Head of Social Sciences, *[University of Tasmania](https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888?ref=goodoil.news)* and [Adam Simpson](https://theconversation.com/profiles/adam-simpson-202360?ref=goodoil.news), Senior Lecturer, International Studies, *[University of South Australia](https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-south-australia-1180?ref=goodoil.news)* This article is republished from [The Conversation](https://theconversation.com/?ref=goodoil.news) under a Creative Commons license. Read the [original article](https://theconversation.com/a-year-after-myanmars-coup-the-military-still-lacks-control-and-the-country-is-sliding-into-an-intractable-civil-war-174766?ref=goodoil.news). [If you enjoyed this article please share it using the share buttons at the top or bottom of the article.](#) [If you would like to access exclusive Member content or just remove the ads to make your reading experience more enjoyable click here to browse our Membership options.](https://thebfd.co.nz/subscription-plans/?ref=2)