> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://goodoil.news/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Bennett and Mitchell Not Credible Contenders - URL: https://goodoil.news/bennett-and-mitchell-not-credible-contenders/ - Published: 2020-04-25T21:00:00.000Z - Updated: 2024-07-17T17:00:29.000Z - Author: Cam Slater - Tags: NZ, NZ Politics, Politics, #wp, #wp-post, #Import 2024-07-17 03:24 Radio New Zealand reporter Jane Patterson has provided an interesting analysis of potential leaders for National. What is most interesting is who she hasn’t even mentioned. > **MPs spoken to by RNZ** were both **dismayed and alarmed by the tsunami of negative public reaction.** > > That’s catapulted him into a place where once again **his leadership is under threat.** We’ve seen this before though; he’s seen off challenges in the toughest of times and will fight hard to do so again. > > No active challenge yet but if MPs decide to move it could happen quickly – Bridges is helped by the fact MPs are in lockdown around the country rather than being able to congregate at Parliament; the longer the full caucus is unable to return to the capital, the better for him. > > About half of National’s MPs could be back when Parliament resumes next week but it will be some time before they’re all back. > > Given the stakes and proximity to the election a change though could be quick and brutal – a vote or solid demonstration of no confidence and a new leadership team installed. > > The only credible contenders are **Judith Collins** and a combination of **Todd Muller** and **Nikki Kaye.** Interesting turn of phrase. Clearly Jane Patterson doesn’t think **Paula Bennett** and **Mark Mitchell** – Team Mitch and the Bitch, are credible. I bet if she was asked she’d say much worse, that in fact Bennett is seen as toxic by most of caucus. The other key thing is Jane Patterson has spoken to several MPs. That is serious in and of itself. Caucus discipline has evaporated. > Collins has had a tilt before so she’d want to see solid majority numbers before making a move. She’s experienced and popular with the base; a stand out performer against the government but has history with some of the senior and more long serving members of the caucus. **Judith Collins** is never going to give up. If the caucus doesn’t pick her now then she will just wait. She has the party members on side and they will be clamouring for change long and hard. > Muller is low profile but has been working hard away from Parliament as agriculture spokesperson, a key portfolio for heartland National – he’s smart and affable but does he have the stomach for a caucus throwdown? Kaye is a former Cabinet minister, a fierce campaigner (who beat Ardern twice in Auckland Central) with a good public profile, appealing to the more urban and socially liberal National voter. Ask anyoneoutside of politics who **Todd Muller** is and you will get quizzical stares. His close friend Matthew Hooton (they worked together at Parliament), is quietly pushing Muller’s agenda. Kaye’s main claim to fame is that she beat **Jacinda Ardern**. I’m not sure that anyone would claim she could match her now. Well, anyone other than her close confidant **Michelle Boag**. > While this has all reignited grumbles among MPs, there have been ongoing niggles including the view caucus business is controlled by a very tight team around Bridges. MPs say that includes detailed information around internal polling, which even on the party vote hasn’t been made freely available in the last month or so. This is what is killing Bridges softly. The caucus wants to see their own numbers, but they are so dreadful that Bridges and McClay won’t let anyone see them. Again the fact MPs are talking to Red Radio tells you that caucus discipline has broken down. > One school of thought would be to let Bridges contest the election – if National wins all good, if not roll him. And they risk a 2002 disaster and then a very large task to recover enough to contest 2023\. It echoes the scale of climbing back in 2005 after **Bill English** tanked National. Even **Don Brash** couldn’t do it, though he came close. The problem though for a large chunk of the caucus is that it could bring their political careers to an abrupt end if they’re in a marginal seat, or have a low list placing. The other consideration is the imminent arrival of **Chris Luxon** into the caucus, if – as expected – he takes Botany, there may not be a clear run at the leadership for those who fancy their chances now. The Wet Team of Muller and Kaye have the most to lose if Bridges remains, a good chunk of them will cease to be MPs and lose any chance they ever had of a future tilt at the leadership. A big swing would remove Kaye, Bishop, Willis and many others. They need to get smart and go cut a deal. If they do nothing then they are choosing to lose. > The dilemma for MPs is clear. > > Some may be looking back at 2017 when Andrew Little made way for Jacinda Ardern and thinking a repeat on their side might be possible, but the dynamics are different including Bridges himself – he’s a scrapper and won’t go away without a fight. A public view that the party is more focused on itself than the Covid crisis would also not play well. > > But those who fear Bridges’ leadership could end their time as an MP may well think it’s worth the roll of the dice. Right now they are shooting snake eyes. *If you enjoyed this BFD article please consider sharing it with your friends.*