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# Coalition majority hangs on Opportunity falling 0.3 points short of Parliament
- URL: https://goodoil.news/coalition-majority-hangs-on-opportunity-falling-0-3-points-short-of-parliament/
- Published: 2026-07-25T01:06:15.000Z
- Updated: 2026-07-25T07:28:50.000Z
- Description: If Opportunity reached 5%, the coalition would fall to around 60 seats.
- Author: Centrist
- Tags: News

Summarised by [Centrist](https://centrist.nz/?ref=goodoil.news)

**The coalition government would retain power on the latest Talbot Mills poll, but its projected majority depends on Opportunity remaining just below the 5% threshold.**

**Opportunity rose 1.4 points to 4.7%, putting it “close to the 5% threshold” required to enter Parliament without winning an electorate.**

With Opportunity excluded from the seat allocation, National would receive 39 seats, NZ First 15 and Act nine. That would give the coalition 63 seats and “enough seats to form a Government”.

> For the last couple of months the Opportunity Party has been promoting a key aspect of their “smart on Crime” policy: “raise the age of the youth court jurisdiction to 25.”  
>  
> That specific number has now just… disappeared from their website. No statement. No explanation. Nothing.… [pic.twitter.com/rOPVxuD1o5](https://t.co/rOPVxuD1o5?ref=goodoil.news)
> 
> — Suit and tie (@Suitandtie9999) [July 24, 2026](https://x.com/Suitandtie9999/status/2080782691553972482?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=goodoil.news)

However, if Opportunity reached 5%, it would receive roughly six seats and the coalition would fall to around 60, potentially leaving the Qiulae Wong-led party holding the balance of power.

The result is the “third poll in two months” to put Opportunity close to the threshold. A 1News-Verian poll had it on 4.6%, while the recent RNZ-Reid Research poll also put it on 4.7%.

Labour remained the largest party on 33%, down one point. National rose two points to 31%, NZ First held at 12%, Act increased to 7% and Te Pāti Māori remained on 3%. The Greens suffered the largest movement, falling four points to 9%.

The poll was conducted for Talbot Mills’ corporate clients between July 10 and 19 and had a margin of error of 3.1%. Talbot Mills also conducts internal polling for Labour.

[**Read more over at The NZ Herald**](https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/new-poll-predicts-coalition-re-election-while-opportunity-holds-close-to-5/O27VPYYVUVGQXP7OCI7ZJ2ZVKM/?ref=goodoil.news)

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