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# Country First It Must Be
- URL: https://goodoil.news/country-first-it-must-be/
- Published: 2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-11T20:59:59.000Z
- Description: The country must come first. Split voting is now non-negotiable. If the other side gets in we are finished, at least in the short to medium term.
- Author: JC
- Tags: NZ Politics, Election 2026

Last week’s RNZ-Reid Research poll was anything but good news for those on the centre right. National crashed and the Greens surged. Opportunity sits knocking on the door. This is not the time to muse over whether this was a rogue poll. You could make a case for that, bearing in mind it was a RNZ poll and if their bias on air was translated into the poll via the framing of the questions asked...who knows. The fact is there are too many polls now all telling, to various degrees, the same story. National is in deep trouble. We all know why.

The fact is that these polls represent damage: damage to the National Party itself, damage to its brand and damage to what it is supposed to stand for. The alarm bells that have been ringing for some time, on *The Good Oi*l and elsewhere, warning of the situation the party now finds itself in, have been completely ignored. The voters who put National in government have basically been told to ‘bugger off’. This is a classic ‘thanks but no thanks’ scenario. We have been hoodwinked, ignored and given a ‘get lost’ message. This is the opposite to rewarding loyalty. This ‘we know best’ attitude now has the party, at 25.9 per cent. It is a disaster.

National historically has been strongly rooted in conservatism and the majority of those who vote for it largely share that viewpoint. The question must then be asked how the party got to where it is now. The answer has to align with where the blame for the 25.9 per cent figure sits. At the last election National garnered 38.06 per cent of the vote. Since then approximately 13 per cent of people who voted for National have walked away. Those reasons have not been recognised or addressed in any way by the party. It’s the old story: ‘I didn’t leave the party, the party left me.’

There is another adage: ‘The rot starts at the top.’ National’s current misery, in my view, can be sheeted back to one man: the one who addressed the National Party conference a couple of weeks ago and uttered words to the effect that if we wanted a strong National-led Government then it has to be two ticks blue and if we split our votes we are worse than dumb. I think we can reliably lay the start of National’s problems at the door of John Key.

He started a divide in the party that exists to this day: a policy divide between conservative economics and the liberal socialism that Key introduced. Luxon, whom Key has mentored, has continued down this path. The fact there have been two leadership coups this term, within five months of each other, shows that the policy divide has spilled over. This has been a terrible look for the party and why many who voted for it in 2023 no longer want a strong National-led Government.

I suggest most who walked have done so because they do not agree with the party’s stance on various social issues. I’m talking about things like abortion, climate change, euthanasia, the Treaty and other issues pertaining to race. In August 2024 Key, again speaking to a party conference, urged the government to tread carefully on Māori issues.

“The important thing is that we’re all New Zealanders and I think everybody wants to live in a place where we can respect one another, get along well and foster a better New Zealand. So I’d kind of encourage everyone to maybe take the temperature down a wee bit.”

Fine words but tinged with some naivety. The problem is, couched in those terms, those on the indigenous side had no intention of following that rhetoric. The situation was not helped by Key allowing Pita Sharples to sign us up to UNDRIP. There is no way we can have what Key is suggesting when one side is hell bent on going in the opposite direction. National, to this day, persists in pussyfooting around Māori issues, instead of wielding the big stick they talked about on the 2023 campaign trail. So now we have a divided governing party governing over a divided country.

National deserves credit for its handling of the economy in what has been, unarguably, difficult times. Luxon has performed well on the world stage. The economy, by all accounts, is turning a corner and Willis deserves some credit for that. Bishop has overall done a good job in his roles. We would all be in a far worse situation had the other lot been in charge.

This bring us to another divide: generational. People of a conservative mind, largely older voters, do not support the more liberal social approach introduced by Key. These people make up a sizeable percentage of National voters and, to put it mildly, they have been shabbily treated by the political leadership. You might be from a younger generation, but you cannot, and have no right to, foist your views on those who put you into the position of power. You are there to serve them, not give them the middle finger.

This is why National is bleeding support. The party opened a wound with voters on the right that will not be fixed without them making basic changes. First, recognise and respect those who voted for you. Second, act on their wishes – many of which the party actually campaigned on. Third, on the social front, get back to being a true conservative party. The political leadership of the party has, through its determination to fulfil its own agenda, taken the party down and now threatens to take the country down with it. That cannot be allowed to happen.

The country must come first. Split voting is now non-negotiable. If the other side gets in we are finished, at least in the short to medium term. Split voting is the only way to ensure a win on the right. This means losing the likes of Willis and Bishop. I’m sorry but in every war there are casualties. Following the election, win or lose, there must immediately be a change of leader. Luxon has to go. That is also non-negotiable. He must be replaced by a person who holds conservative views, both economically and socially.