> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://goodoil.news/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Fear and Loathing of the Unvaccinated Gets Another Boost - URL: https://goodoil.news/fear-and-loathing-of-the-unvaccinated-gets-another-boost/ - Published: 2022-04-30T01:30:00.000Z - Updated: 2022-04-30T11:17:15.000Z - Author: Guest Post - Tags: COVID-19, Featured, Politics, #wp, #wp-post, #Import 2024-07-16 23:04 **Bhaskaran Raman** [brownstone.org](https://brownstone.org/articles/fear-and-loathing-of-the-unvaccinated-gets-another-boost/?ref=goodoil.news) *Bhaskaran Raman is a faculty in the Department of Computer Science and Engineering at IIT Bombay. Views expressed here are his personal opinion. He maintains the site: “Understand, Unclog, Unpanic, Unscare, Unlock (U5) India” [https://tinyurl.com/u5india](https://tinyurl.com/u5india?ref=goodoil.news) .* --- A [study](https://www.cmaj.ca/content/194/16/E573?ref=goodoil.news) was published in the *Canadian Medical Association Journal* (CMAJ) titled “Impact of population mixing between vaccinated and unvaccinated subpopulations on infectious disease dynamics: implications for SARS-CoV-2 transmission,” on April 25, 2022\. Set in the context of Covid-19 and based on a simulation model study of various mixes of unjabbed and jabbed populations, the study concluded that the unvaccinated pose a risk to the vaccinated. This immediately made waves in the media in many parts of the world: [WION News](https://www.wionews.com/videos/if-you-are-unvaccinated-for-covid-you-are-a-threat-to-those-whore-jabbed-473834?ref=goodoil.news), [*The Hamilton Spectator*](https://www.thespec.com/news/hamilton-region/2022/04/26/covid-19-hamilton-latest-news.html?ref=goodoil.news), [NDTV (India)](https://swachhindia.ndtv.com/unvaccinated-people-increase-covid-19-risk-for-those-who-are-vaccinated-study-68124/?ref=goodoil.news), [DNA (India)](https://www.dnaindia.com/world/video-new-study-unvaccinated-people-pose-a-threat-to-those-inoculated-against-covid-19-2948488?ref=goodoil.news), [Times Now (India)](https://www.dnaindia.com/world/video-new-study-unvaccinated-people-pose-a-threat-to-those-inoculated-against-covid-19-2948488?ref=goodoil.news), etc. > [](https://twitter.com/BernieSpofforth/status/1519213733268107265?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1519213733268107265%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1%5F&ref%5Furl=https%3A%2F%2Fbrownstone.org%2Farticles%2Ffear-and-loathing-of-the-unvaccinated-gets-another-boost%2F&ref=goodoil.news) The above conclusion of the study goes against the layperson observation that highly jabbed populations have faced repeated surges: e.g. Israel, various countries in Europe, USA, etc., while populations with only a low percentage of people jabbed haven’t had surges: India, various African countries, etc. In fact in many places like Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong, etc. even the first surge happened only after a high percentage of the population was jabbed. \[Data references: [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus?ref=goodoil.news)\]. The publication’s conclusion not only is against layperson observation, but also against other careful statistical studies. As early as Sep 2021, a [study](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00808-7?ref=goodoil.news) titled “Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States” looked at statistical correlation between jab levels and reported Covid-19 cases, and in fact found a slight positive correlation: higher level of jabs was correlated positively with higher Covid-19 cases. Post this statistical study, with the arrival of Omicron, further data from around the world has shown that infection rates are *higher* in vaccinated (even boosted) populations. For instance, the [graph](https://www.walgreens.com/businesssolutions/covid-19-index.jsp?ref=goodoil.news) shows the test positivity rates for various levels of vaccination in the U.S. The unvaccinated have a higher percentage of tests but the lowest percent of positivity. It is clear that the vaccine does nothing to prevent infection after waning; in fact it could increase the chance of testing positive. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/31/f4/31f4e20a-0315-499e-83ff-139e8eab53bf/content/images/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/screen-shot-2022-04-28-at-3.05.14-pm.png) Image Credit: [brownstone.org](https://brownstone.org/articles/fear-and-loathing-of-the-unvaccinated-gets-another-boost/?ref=goodoil.news) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/31/f4/31f4e20a-0315-499e-83ff-139e8eab53bf/content/images/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/screen-shot-2022-04-28-at-3.05.02-pm.png) Image Credit: [brownstone.org](https://brownstone.org/articles/fear-and-loathing-of-the-unvaccinated-gets-another-boost/?ref=goodoil.news) Despite all the above, how did the *CMAJ* study arrive at the conclusion it did? Let us now look at the technical merit of the study. First, we note that it is a *simulation study*, not real-world data. In science, while simulations can be useful in many situations, real-world data has much more merit since no simulation can capture reality perfectly. A closer look at the details of the simulation study reveals deep technical problems, listed below. 1. The study says “We did not model waning immunity.” There is a preponderance of studies as well as real-world data showing waning immunity of the current Covid-19 jabs. The jab efficacy against [symptomatic infection](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01753-y?ref=goodoil.news) as well as [hospitalization](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2821%2902754-9/fulltext?ref=goodoil.news) is known to be waning within 3-6 months. Therefore not modeling waning immunity is a clear mismatch with reality. 2. The simulation has taken jab efficacy as 80% (Table-1 in the [study](https://www.cmaj.ca/content/194/16/E573?ref=goodoil.news)). Now, this too is way far from reality. While a recently case-controlled [study](https://www.nejm.org/do/10.1056/NEJMdo006518/full/?ref=goodoil.news) in England showed jab efficacy as low as -2.7% (minus 2.7%) after six months of double-jab, the above mentioned population-wide data from the U.S. shows a jab efficacy lower than -100% (minus 100%) for the triple-jabbed. 3. The simulation takes the baseline immunity in the unjabbed as 20% (Table-1 in the [study](https://www.cmaj.ca/content/194/16/E573?ref=goodoil.news)). This is yet another parameter quite far from reality in most places in the world now. In India, [sero-surveys](https://tinyurl.com/brvmpres?ref=goodoil.news) have shown that most people are now naturally exposed to the virus. Even in the U.S., the CDC has [said](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/04/26/majority-americans-coronavirus-infections/?ref=goodoil.news) that most Americans have been exposed to the virus. This is significant since various studies have affirmed that immunity after natural exposure is [strong](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.01.21258176v4?ref=goodoil.news), [long-lasting](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z?ref=goodoil.news) and far [superior](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1.full?ref=goodoil.news) to jab-induced immunity. Thus the much publicized *CMAJ* simulation [study](https://www.cmaj.ca/content/194/16/E573?ref=goodoil.news) is based on assumptions which are known to be flawed. The conclusions may be true in an alternate world where immunity from natural exposure is poor, and Covid-19 vaccine have high efficacy which does not wane; but they certainly do not hold in the real world. It is also worthwhile pointing to the statement of “competing interests” declared in the [publication](https://www.cmaj.ca/content/194/16/E573?ref=goodoil.news), which says that one of the authors has served on various advisory boards for Covid-19 vaccines. Whether this indicates competence or bias should be left to the reader to interpret, and responsible media journalists should also indicate such competing interests while reporting on publication results. [If you enjoyed this article please share it using the share buttons at the top or bottom of the article.](#) [If you would like to access exclusive Member content or just remove the ads to make your reading experience more enjoyable click here to browse our Membership options.](https://thebfd.co.nz/subscription-plans/?ref=2)