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# From Major to Middling
- URL: https://goodoil.news/from-major-to-middling/
- Published: 2026-10-01T21:30:26.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-01T21:30:25.000Z
- Description: Economic credibility is hard to earn. Once lost, it is even harder to regain. Compare the PREFU with what was promised and it is easy to see why 44 per cent of us no longer have confidence in either of the two middling parties.
- Author: Reproduced with permission
- Tags: NZ Politics, Economy, Election 2026

[**Richard Prebble**](https://richardprebble.substack.com/p/from-major-to-middling)  
*Columnist, former cabinet minister and ACT Party leader.*

Nine years ago, 39 days before the 2017 election, Labour and National had between them 81 per cent support.

Thirty-nine days before this election the two middling parties have just 56 per cent.

In 2017, English and Ardern were both on 30 per cent.

Last night Luxon was on 19 per cent and Hipkins 14 per cent.

But is blaming the leaders too simple?

Why did we once have confidence in the major parties?

Could it be because, for around a quarter of a century, both parties in government were fiscally responsible, running surpluses and paying down debt?

For the last seven years, both parties have run deficits and increased debt.

The pre-election update is only good news in that the books are better than forecast in the budget.

The update confirms that the surplus both parties promised last election to deliver in 2026/27 will not happen.

Labour has opposed reducing government spending.

And National has spent and borrowed more than Labour.

Economic credibility is hard to earn. Once lost, it is even harder to regain.

Compare the PREFU with what was promised and it is easy to see why 44 per cent of us no longer have confidence in either of the two middling parties.

This article was originally published by [I’ve Been Thinking](https://richardprebble.substack.com/p/from-major-to-middling).