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# Key and Luxon Don’t Get It?
- URL: https://goodoil.news/key-and-luxon-dont-get-it/
- Published: 2026-09-30T20:00:29.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-30T20:00:28.000Z
- Description: Key and Luxon do get it and using words like ‘dumb’ and ‘insane’ bring to mind another word: panic.
- Author: JC
- Tags: NZ Politics, National, Election 2026

At last weekend’s National Party election launch, John Key, in his address to the few who bothered to turn up, said people who were touting tactical voting were “dumb”. Insult! Luxon followed that up by describing the idea as “insane”. Desperation! These two have something of a history together and I’m not prepared to completely ‘knock’ either of them. To do so would be unfair as their contributions, good or bad, were done with what they consider the best of intent. They both harboured a desire to give something back to the country. However, that doesn’t mean they can escape criticism and the opportunity to do so is there aplenty.

These two gentlemen share a certain amount of commonality. They have both had successful business careers and to deny that is nothing more than spite. That doesn’t mean we have to like them as political leaders. Key has had a major influence on Luxon and could be aptly described as his mentor. I think this is where the problem with Luxon starts because his similar traits to Key have become obvious, particularly in the area of race policy. Key allowing the Māori Party to sign the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Agreement has foisted all the current race problems upon us.

Both Key and Luxon tend to follow a more liberal path than a conservative one. Key blended both socially and economically liberal policies, which took National from the right and more to the centre. Luxon is continuing this approach, which now sees the party at below 30 per cent in the polls. Having Willis and Bishop on the same page is driving the party further in this direction. The upshot of that is a divided party, illustrated by two attempted leadership coups and, again, the poll numbers plus a not insignificant number of disgruntled supporters who are now looking elsewhere to find a party that better represents their interests.

Which brings me to the point that Key and Luxon don’t get – tactical voting. My headline is actually a misrepresentation of the fact that I’m sure they do get it. They are simply representing their party when they use the words “dumb” and “insane”. They know full well the damage that tactical voting can do to the party’s list chances at the election. Their aim is for ‘two ticks blue’ so National can become the largest party in parliament. The irony is that what supporters, and voters in general, have witnessed in the first term has largely been a turnoff. They are the authors of their own demise. Their actions have ensured that the plaintive call of ‘two ticks blue’ will not resonate.

Tactical voting serves THREE purposes: ensuring a right leaning government, reducing the power of a liberally inclined National Party and increasing the power of the more fiscally and socially conservative parties ACT and NZ First.

Winston has made no secret of the fact that he is encouraging tactical voting and why wouldn’t he? The party has nothing to lose and everything to gain. My bet is that on election night ACT and NZ First will register higher numbers than those currently showing in the polls. Their polling will determine just how successful or otherwise tactical voting has been. A good number for both those parties is advantageous to the right and is the best way of ensuring a right coalition forms the next government. It is also the best way of making sure the lunatics on the left return to the seats they have occupied for the last three years.

Like everything else in life, nothing in politics is certain but there are ways to assist the aim of certainty. Harry Mowbray has done the maths and told Heather du Plessis-Allan that if enough voters on the right employ this tactic there will never be a government of the left again.

So I think Key and Luxon do get it and using words like *dumb* and *insane* bring to mind another word: *panic*. They know that no list MPs means no Willis and no Bishop, which will likely put a dent in their more liberal agenda. If Key and Luxon don’t wish to change course then voters will use tactical voting as a way to try and do it for them. It’s not rocket science – it’s using a flaw in the MMP system to try and produce a desired outcome. Neither Luxon nor Key can prevent it and they are only too well aware of what sort of outcome a tsunami of tactical votes will produce.