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# More Bad News for National
- URL: https://goodoil.news/more-bad-news-for-national/
- Published: 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-11T20:29:59.000Z
- Description: On this poll, the centre-right loses. National’s two-ticks-for-National strategy is not working. Strategic voting is going to decide the election.
- Author: Reproduced with permission
- Tags: NZ Politics, National, Election 2026, Polling

[**Richard Prebble**](https://richardprebble.substack.com/p/bad-news-and-more-bad-news-for-national)  
*Columnist, former cabinet minister and ACT Party leader.*

The bad news is that the latest TVNZ-Verian poll has the coalition losing.

The more bad news is that applying a five per cent swing based on the poll, National loses nine electorates: Banks Peninsula, Henderson, West Coast-Tasman, Hutt South, Wairarapa, Wigram, East Cape, Kāpiti and Mt Roskill.

That leaves National with 36 electorates.

At 29 per cent of the party vote, National is entitled to 35 MPs. If National wins back Tāmaki, the arithmetic gets even worse.

**Not one National list MP would be elected.**

I must add many qualifications.

Polls measure the party vote, not the electorate vote.

If the two were the same, ACT would not hold two electorates and the Greens three.

I have assumed a uniform five per cent swing from the right to the left.

I have not allocated Opportunity’s support because we do not know where its votes are coming from.

At the last election, nearly 60 per cent of ACT Party voters gave their electorate vote to National. Nearly 44 per cent of Green voters gave their electorate vote to Labour. What will they do this election?

The assumptions are considerable.

But the political lesson is clear.

On this poll, the centre-right loses.

National’s two-ticks-for-National strategy is not working.

Strategic voting is going to decide the election.

Other polling indicates Te Pāti Māori will win electorates and its electorate only strategy could be enough to tip the balance.

Christopher Luxon saying he would rather not be in coalition is like saying his plan is to win lotto.

Luxon needs a cup of tea with Seymour. And perhaps Peters too.

This article was originally published by [I’ve Been Thinking](https://richardprebble.substack.com/p/bad-news-and-more-bad-news-for-national).