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# My Prediction Ardern Would INCREASE Child Poverty
- URL: https://goodoil.news/my-prediction-ardern-would-increase-child-poverty/
- Published: 2020-01-05T21:30:00.000Z
- Updated: 2020-01-04T20:58:42.000Z
- Author: Guest Post
- Tags: NZ, NZ Politics, #wp, #wp-post, #Import 2024-07-17 03:49

**Lindsay Mitchell**  
[lindsaymitchell.blogspot.com](https://lindsaymitchell.blogspot.com/2020/01/my-prediction-ardern-would-increase.html?ref=goodoil.news)

New Year seems to be a time when predictions are checked. In September 2017 I [predicted](https://lindsaymitchell.blogspot.com/2017/09/jacinda-ardern-will-increase-poverty.html?ref=goodoil.news) Jacinda Ardern would increase child poverty if she became Prime Minister.

On [7 of 9 measures](https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/child-poverty-statistics-year-ended-june-2018?ref=goodoil.news) introduced under the Child Poverty Reduction Act, to June 2018 poverty had increased. That’s fairly out-dated data now and not a particularly useful measuring stick.

But also now known is that children in benefit dependent households rose between June 2018 and 2019\. From Otago University’s [Child Poverty Monitor](https://ourarchive.otago.ac.nz/bitstream/handle/10523/9827/CPM%5F2019.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y&ref=goodoil.news):

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/31/f4/31f4e20a-0315-499e-83ff-139e8eab53bf/content/images/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/the_bfd-children-on-benefits-to-2019-as-percentage-of-all.png)

Source: [lindsaymitchell.blogspot.com/2020/01/my-prediction-ardern-would-increase.html](https://lindsaymitchell.blogspot.com/2020/01/my-prediction-ardern-would-increase.html?ref=goodoil.news)

It’s not a big rise but it’s the first in 10 years.

I argued, and still do, that despite studying the child poverty problem as Labour spokesperson for six years, Ardern didn’t understand the drivers.

Essentially the more a country chooses to decrease poverty through redistribution, the more joblessness grows. It is well documented now that despite having low unemployment, [numbers](https://www.msd.govt.nz/about-msd-and-our-work/publications-resources/statistics/benefit/latest-quarterly-results/all-main-benefits.html?ref=goodoil.news) on the jobseeker benefit – and more recently the sole parent benefit – have increased. The kind of people who choose not to work when they could aren’t necessarily stupid. But they are quite probably not good money-managers. For instance, they don’t prioritise their children’s needs. There is usually wisdom behind old adages. In this case, ‘Easy come, easy go.’

I don’t know if the Left will ever figure out that state-enforced redistribution to the poor doesn’t solve their problems in a meaningful or sustained way. It won’t under this leader anyway.

But here’s an election year question for you to ponder. If Ardern claims this year that her [Families Package](https://www.msd.govt.nz/about-msd-and-our-work/publications-resources/evaluation/families-package-reports/families-package.html?ref=goodoil.news) has reduced child poverty (BUT more children are in non-working homes) is that a success?

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/31/f4/31f4e20a-0315-499e-83ff-139e8eab53bf/content/images/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/jacinda_child_poverty.jpg)