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# The Future of the Centre Right
- URL: https://goodoil.news/the-future-of-the-centre-right/
- Published: 2026-10-14T19:30:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-14T19:29:59.000Z
- Description: The lesson from CPAC Australia is that voters notice when parties drift from the values that originally earned their support. Whether New Zealand’s major parties recognise that lesson before the next election remains to be seen.
- Author: Reproduced with permission
- Tags: AUS Politics, NZ Politics, Elections

[**Simon O’Connor**](https://onpointnz.substack.com/p/cpac-australia-and-the-future-of)  
*Husband, step-father, foster dad, and longtime student of philosophy and history. Also happen to be a former politician, including chairing New Zealand's Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Committee.*

I’ve recently been in Brisbane for CPAC Australia. CPAC stands for Conservative Political Action Conference and originated in the United States. Just like the American conferences, this Australian one is glitzy with huge screens, loud music, bold lighting, smoke generators, and an array of speakers and topics from across the conservative right of politics.

![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lg_K!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F51b56234-fd76-4eaa-a648-6bd1c1379e94_2790x2019.jpeg)

Leader of the Liberals, Angus Taylor

As you would expect, very much an Australian focus but the dynamics between the various centre-right parties there is also very applicable to New Zealand.

While the 1,500 attendees gathered wanted to see unity across the three centre-right political parties, the tension and disunity between them was all too evident to see.

The traditional conservative party is the Liberals, led by relatively new leader Angus Taylor. The ‘Libs’ are the equivalent of National back home here in New Zealand. The Nationals are effectively the Liberal Party for the rural voter and led by Matt Canavan, also a relatively new leader. Together, the Nationals and Liberals are known as ‘the coalition’ for they effectively work together as one while maintaining their separate brands. There is then One Nation, led by Senator Pauline Hanson. She was the clear star of the show, with her party polling higher than all other parties on the right or left of politics. Pauline has long been seen as fringe figure, but after 30 years in politics she is now very much front and centre.

![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rPfX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F10392899-f793-4b4f-9c9d-97d8688c7ec5_2798x2145.jpeg)

Leader of One Nation, Senator Pauline Hanson

There was tension between the Liberals and One Nation, Angus and Pauline. The once dominant Liberal party has significantly faded while One Nation has surged. While Angus Taylor received a warm but notably muted welcome to stage, Pauline was greeted like a rockstar. Strikingly, all three leaders touched on pretty much the same issues – cost of living, energy, ending Net Zero, mining, immigration, and social cohesion. Yet they could not be on stage together, at least not Angus and Pauline. In very telling optics, a panel advertised as including all three leaders ended up just being Matt and Pauline. Angus Taylor clearly refused to join, so was interviewed separately.

I think the reason for this very visible disunity is simple to explain. The Liberals do not want to give any legitimacy to One Nation and are hoping that they can rebuild their vote and diminish One Nation’s before the next election in two years’ time.

How does any of this relate to New Zealand? The first is the issue of centre-right parties departing from their core values and then wondering why their vote drops. This is unfortunately true of the National Party, now consistently polling under 30 per cent. Just like the Liberals in Australia or the Conservatives in the United Kingdom, there is a clear departure from the values that once underpinned the parties and their success.

All three have moved towards the left of politics, although Angus Taylor and Kemi Badendoch are slowly trying to pull their parties back towards the right. Frustratingly, National has drifted to the left in both fiscal and social policies. Not in all or every portfolio of course, but widespread enough for voters to notice. Chris Luxon could not answer if being a billionaire is moral (the answer is yes); has doubled down on rejecting anything pro-life; has ruled out any change to Net Zero or leaving the Paris Agreement; and fiscally, despite the rhetoric, National’s track mirrors that of the previous Labour government on almost every metric.

Instead, and broadly speaking, ACT is appealing to the fiscal conservatives while NZ First appeals to the social conservative. This is exactly what has happened to the Libs in Australia, for as they moved left, their centre-right voters went to One Nation.

Of note, the Liberals under Angus Taylor are returning to the right of politics. Whether reducing immigration, challenging Net Zero, increasing defence spending, or discussing the removal of the nuclear moratorium – he is clearly articulating policies that resonate with many voters on the Australian right. Despite this, these voters are not yet returning in significant numbers.

The reasons are believability and legacy. Liberal voters remember what the party did while in government, such as Scott Morrison signing Australia up to Net Zero. These voters now find it hard to believe the ‘new’ Liberals will scrap it. As for legacy, it’s the wider scepticism borne from seeing so many campaign promises failing to materialise when in government.

This is currently a problem for National as well. What people thought would happen over the last three years, has not. This has led to frustration with voters and while in a coalition government with ACT and NZ First, it is National copping the most flak. It’s unfair to a degree, but it’s also reality.

![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jlts!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7af08269-0e45-4d87-82b5-8824add7ef52_937x617.png)

There have been many polls, with this one being the very latest – 1News’ Verian poll

A final observation is around the leaders of the once small parties. Whether Pauline Hanson or Winston Peters, Nigel Farage or David Seymour – there are things they’ve said or policies they’ve pursued that do not sit well with conservative voters.

Chatting with delegates here at CPAC, many openly said they found lots of things that Pauline has said and done over the years to be offensive, stupid, or not aligned with their values. But they are still going to vote for One Nation. Why? It’s because she calls things how she sees them and not pandering what mainstream media or the commentariat will think. Voters are responding to this ‘honesty’. They may not like what she’s saying at times, but they appreciate she’s straight up. The same is mostly true of the likes of Nigel Farage, Winston Peters, Javier Milei in Argentina, and others.

People are not responding to what is being said, but how it is being said. In turn, they are rejecting politicians they view as speaking in a way that tries to please everyone.

The latter is not just an issue for National but also Labour in New Zealand. When either Luxon or Hipkins are asked a question, one gets the impression they are immediately processing what answer will be best received by mainstream media or those on TikTok.

Voters do not like this and the proof is in the polls.

The lesson from CPAC Australia is that voters notice when parties drift from the values that originally earned their support. Whether New Zealand’s major parties recognise that lesson before the next election remains to be seen.

### In the Media

Warning, this podcast might be confronting for some. I speak with Melinda Tankard Reist of Collective Shout about what happens when standing up for women and girls makes you the target of one of the worst online violence campaigns the world has seen.

And my wife Rachel’s latest Substack is on happiness, and a great read: [Let’s Flourish by Rachel](https://letsflourishnz.substack.com/p/happiness?utm%5Fsource=substack&utm%5Fcampaign=post%5Fembed&utm%5Fmedium=web&embedding%5Fpublication%5Fid=2186958).

This article was originally published by [On Point](https://onpointnz.substack.com/p/cpac-australia-and-the-future-of).