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# The Week at The Good Oil, 31 Oct to 5 Nov
- URL: https://goodoil.news/the-week-at-the-good-oil-31-oct-to-5-nov/
- Published: 2026-11-06T05:45:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-11-06T05:45:00.000Z
- Description: Overhangs, Luxon, Winston and the final polls. Everything we ran from 31 October to 5 November.
- Author: Cam Slater
- Tags: Newsletters

One day out and the overhang argument is still the whole election. Luxon is defending a list seat, Winston is carrying the right, and two final polls say electorate seats decide it. Here is what we ran from Friday 31 October to Thursday 5 November.

## Cam's columns

- [Two Final Polls Say Overhangs Decide It, and the Left Is Banking on One](https://goodoil.news/the-lefts-road-to-power-runs-through-a-0-4-party/) (Paid). The final Verian and Curia polls both say electorate seats decide it, and the left is counting on a Te Pāti Māori overhang from about one per cent of the party vote.
- [Winston Peters Is Carrying the Right on His Back.](https://goodoil.news/winston-peters-is-carrying-the-right-on-his-back/) (Paid). A Freshwater Strategy deck on the Platform has National down 12 points since 2023\. NZ First is holding the right bloc together, and the numbers check out.
- [Swarbrick Wants the Treasury Keys and Calls It Bullying When You Mention Them](https://goodoil.news/swarbrick-wants-the-treasury-keys-and-calls-it-bullying-when-you-mention-them/) (Paid). Chloe Swarbrick asked for the most powerful job in government. National quoted her. Now she says she is being cyber-bullied.
- [Luxon’s Six Giants and the Seat He Is Really Defending](https://goodoil.news/luxons-six-giants-and-the-seat-he-is-really-defending/) (Paid). National says the split-vote push threatens the country. Look closer and it is one list seat, and Luxon has a funny idea of who counts as a giant.
- [National Would Rather Police Its Donor Than Win the Argument](https://goodoil.news/national-would-rather-police-its-donor-than-win-the-argument/) (Paid). Harry Mowbray spent $35 on a domain telling centre-right voters to split. Someone complained. He assumes it was National.

## Quick Hits

- [Quick Hit: Unemployment Hits 5.7% and Winston Saw It Coming](https://goodoil.news/quick-hit-unemployment-hits-5-7-and-winston-saw-it-coming/) (VIP). Unemployment hit 5.7 per cent, 174,000 out of work, long-term joblessness the highest since 1994\. Winston says he told National and ACT to delay the tax cuts.
- [Quick Hit: Where National’s 2023 Voters Went](https://goodoil.news/quick-hit-where-nationals-2023-voters-went/) (VIP). Only 56.9 per cent of National's 2023 voters still back the party. ACT and NZ First now hold 18.4 per cent of them.
- [Quick Hit: What NZ First Says It Delivered for Superannuitants, Checked](https://goodoil.news/quick-hit-what-nz-first-says-it-delivered-for-superannuitants-checked/) (VIP). Winston read out a superannuitant list in Papakura. Most of it stands up against the official record. Two are shared credit, one we could not find.
- [Quick Hit: What an Overhang Actually Does](https://goodoil.news/quick-hit-what-an-overhang-actually-does/) (VIP). National won 43 electorates last time. The latest Verian poll gives it 34 MPs on party vote. That gap is the whole election argument.
- [Quick Hit: Labour built the blob, and even 9,000 cuts won’t shrink it back](https://goodoil.news/quick-hit-labour-built-the-blob-and-even-9-000-cuts-wont-shrink-it-back/) (VIP). Department bosses must model a 15 per cent staff cut. Even the 55,000 target leaves the public service bigger than the one Labour inherited in 2017.
- [Some Regime](https://goodoil.news/some-regime/) (VIP). Mallard cries voter suppression. Three days into advance voting, 309,876 have voted, up about 32 per cent on 2023, and 93.6 per cent are enrolled.

## Real Good Oil

- [The Great Strategic Voting Experiment of 2026](https://goodoil.news/the-great-strategic-voting-experiment-of-2026/) (Paid). Can the right demonstrate discipline at the ballot box? The leftist system seems very worried about the answer.
- [‘Doing the Maths’, Against Democracy](https://goodoil.news/doing-the-maths-against-democracy/) (Paid). If done properly, the overhang strategy could shut the left out of power forever. Chris Trotter asks what comes next.
- [The Beautiful Lies of “Star Trek”](https://goodoil.news/the-beautiful-lies-of-star-trek/) (Paid). An entertaining enough TV show and an utter philosophical mess. No wonder its fans turned it into a progressive cult.

## The election, the polls and the overhang

- [Poll’s hung Parliament depends on counting Opportunity with the left](https://goodoil.news/polls-hung-parliament-depends-on-counting-opportunity-with-the-left/). Curia's final poll has a 60-60 hung Parliament, but only by parking Opportunity's seven projected MPs with the left.
- [A True MMP Election at Last](https://goodoil.news/a-true-mmp-election-at-last/). Voters splitting on the right are saying they want ACT and NZ First to have a bigger say, not a stronger National Party.
- [Why Does the National Party Continue to Be So Pig-Headed?](https://goodoil.news/why-does-the-national-party-continue-to-be-so-pig-headed/). Five days out and National is still doing its utmost to chance a hard-left socialist coalition into power.
- [Facts Are Facts Mr Luxon](https://goodoil.news/facts-are-facts-mr-luxon/). National has lost the respect of its voter base. For that, everyone on the right could pay a heavy price on Saturday.
- [Still Refusing to Accept the Obvious](https://goodoil.news/still-refusing-to-accept-the-obvious/). Peter Williams asks whether there is a more sinister reason National keeps refusing the only tactic that keeps Luxon PM.
- [Is This Election Already Over?](https://goodoil.news/is-this-election-already-over/). By Friday nearly 600,000 votes were cast, 32 per cent more than at the same stage in 2023\. Prebble wonders if it is already over.
- [‘That is not true’: Hosking confronts Luxon over vote-splitting claim](https://goodoil.news/that-is-not-true-hosking-confronts-luxon-over-vote-splitting-claim/). Hosking told Luxon his vote-splitting warning was not true. The exchange left National's own interest on the table.
- [Police investigate vote-splitting as National's MMP claim escapes watchdog scrutiny](https://goodoil.news/police-investigate-vote-splitting-as-nationals-mmp-claim-escapes-watchdog-scrutiny/). Police are investigating a vote-splitting campaign after an Electoral Commission referral, days before 7 November.
- [The Story Everyone Is Missing](https://goodoil.news/the-story-everyone-is-missing/). Simon O'Connor says Oriini Kaipara's gang-pad visit may say more about the centre-left's future than the latest polls.
- [Interesting Election Races: Chris Bishop](https://goodoil.news/interesting-election-races-chris-bishop/). Prebble reckons Hutt South matters because electing Chris Bishop would give National a better future leader.
- [Who Gets to Run Your Life?](https://goodoil.news/who-gets-to-run-your-life/). Ani O'Brien drops the policy laundry list and asks what political philosophies actually separate the parties.
- [NZ’s Election Is Rigged](https://goodoil.news/nzs-election-is-rigged/). Mallard says the coalition tried to rig the election. John McLean asks the obvious follow-up: by whom?
- [One Law for All, Or Back to Co-Governance?](https://goodoil.news/one-law-for-all-or-back-to-co-governance/). Don Brash's final-week pitch: one law for all, or back to co-governance.
- [Who Really Runs the Country?](https://goodoil.news/who-really-runs-the-country/). Democracy is not just electing governments. It is ensuring they can govern once they get there.
- [Kiwi Borrows Chairs to Explain MMP](https://goodoil.news/kiwi-borrows-chairs-to-explain-mmp/). Dave tried to explain MMP with borrowed chairs. He ended up on the camping stool, off the list.
- [Greens Back Satire, Just Not About Themselves](https://goodoil.news/reproduced-with-permission-template-make-a-copy-copy-4/). The Greens threatened legal action over Sensible Sentencing Trust attack ads while pushing a law to protect parody and satire.
- [The Left Does Not Have a Monopoly](https://goodoil.news/the-left-does-not-have-a-monopoly/). Ani O'Brien on Chloe Swarbrick and selective compassion: compassion for me, contempt for thee.
- [Money Does Not Grow On Trees and nor Does Experience](https://goodoil.news/money-does-not-grow-on-trees-and-nor-does-experience/). Luxon still talks as if he is running a company. Managing cabinet, coalition partners and a public service is a different job.
- [Would You Trust These Politicians?](https://goodoil.news/would-you-trust-these-politicians/). Governing demands fiscal discipline, competent execution and tactical clarity at the ballot box.
- [Special Snowflake Trigger: The Perigo Perspective](https://goodoil.news/special-snowflake-trigger-the-perigo-perspective/). Lindsay Perigo's least evil of the very evil, with Woke Social Justice Warrior snowflakes front of mind.

## Around New Zealand

- [End Bail-Outs to Force Councils to Confront Decisions](https://goodoil.news/end-bail-outs-to-force-councils-to-confront-decisions/). Wellington spent irresponsibly. The bill is due. Eric Crampton says nobody else should cover it.
- [Stay the Course With Maths Reforms](https://goodoil.news/stay-the-course-with-maths-reforms/). The evidence for Stanford's maths reforms is as good as it gets this soon after implementation. Stay the course.
- [Regaining Confidence Despite Rising Costs](https://goodoil.news/regaining-confidence-despite-rising-costs/). Retail NZ found 75.1 per cent of retailers expect to meet or beat sales targets in the final quarter, despite rising costs.
- [Who pays: Parents or taxpayers? Govt draws the line at 20](https://goodoil.news/who-pays-parents-or-taxpayers-govt-draws-the-line-at-20/). Unemployed 18 and 19-year-olds face a parental income test above $67,225\. The government draws the line at 20.
- [Young Kiwis struggle to find work as regions turn to migrant labour](https://goodoil.news/young-kiwis-struggle-to-find-work-as-regions-turn-to-migrant-labour/). Young Kiwis cannot find work. Regions still turn to migrant labour. Stats NZ lays out the paradox.
- [Full-time jobs fall as wages fail to keep pace with prices](https://goodoil.news/full-time-jobs-fall-as-wages-fail-to-keep-pace-with-prices/). New Zealand lost 17,000 full-time jobs in the September quarter. Wage growth fell well behind inflation.
- [More Kiwis raid KiwiSaver for hardship than to buy their first home](https://goodoil.news/more-kiwis-raid-kiwisaver-for-hardship-than-to-buy-their-first-home/). More than 44,000 raided KiwiSaver for hardship in the first nine months of 2026, more than used it for a first home.
- [MBIE boss who misled Parliament chaired group that kept zombie $50m project alive](https://goodoil.news/mbie-boss-who-misled-parliament-chaired-group-that-kept-zombie-50m-project-alive/). MBIE boss Nic Blakeley chaired the group that kept a failed $50m biometric project alive, then said he was not closely involved.
- [First move-on orders target disorder, not rough sleeping](https://goodoil.news/first-move-on-orders-target-disorder-not-rough-sleeping/). Police issued 29 move-on orders in nine days. None was for mere rough sleeping or begging.
- [Labour dominates Ipsos poll, but rival survey raises questions about online-only sampling](https://goodoil.news/labour-dominates-ipsos-poll-but-rival-survey-raises-questions-about-online-only-sampling/). Ipsos has Labour ahead on 16 of 20 issues. An earlier survey with different methods gives National the lead on seven of ten.
- [Labour’s voter suppression claims grow as Mallard invokes Trump](https://goodoil.news/labours-voter-suppression-claims-grow-as-mallard-invokes-trump/). Labour figures warn of voter suppression. Mallard invokes Trump. Sean Plunket has questions.
- [From the pub door to social media: The 18+ card's bigger ambitions](https://goodoil.news/from-the-pub-door-to-social-media-the-18-cards-bigger-ambitions/). Officials eyed the digital Kiwi Access Card for social-media age checks ahead of under-16 restrictions.
- [Digital ID: What could actually go wrong if the privacy safeguards work?](https://goodoil.news/digital-id-what-could-actually-go-wrong-if-the-privacy-safeguards-work/). Govt.nz says digital credentials stay encrypted on your phone. Combined business records are another matter.
- [Ardern calls for unity after COVID-era divisions, but what of her own government's legacy?](https://goodoil.news/ardern-calls-for-unity-after-covid-era-divisions-but-what-of-her-own-governments-legacy/). Ardern urges unity after COVID-era divisions, speaking in Sydney. Her own government's legacy sits quietly offstage.
- [Wealth tax flight risk: Why New Zealand isn't Norway](https://goodoil.news/wealth-tax-flight-risk-why-new-zealand-isnt-norway/). Norway research soft-pedals wealth-tax flight. Terry Baucher warns Australia next door makes NZ different.
- [Transparency push singles out right-wing donors while unions remain in the shadows](https://goodoil.news/transparency-push-singles-out-right-wing-donors-while-unions-remain-in-the-shadows/). Newsroom wants third-party donor disclosure, then aims most of the suspicion at the centre-right while unions stay quiet.
- [RNZ defends Wong coverage, then stops posting about her](https://goodoil.news/rnz-defends-wong-coverage-then-stops-posting-about-her/). RNZ says it is confident balance is being achieved on Wong coverage. Lynch says it stopped posting about her after he asked.
- [Wong marathon questions become test of political and media integrity](https://goodoil.news/wong-marathon-questions-become-test-of-political-and-media-integrity/). Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong finished the Auckland Marathon in a bib registered to another woman. Questions followed.
- [Laws doubles down before apology as Luxon rules him out of Cabinet](https://goodoil.news/laws-doubles-down-before-apology-as-luxon-rules-him-out-of-cabinet/). Luxon ruled Michael Laws out of Cabinet after the NZ First candidate mocked Opportunity, then doubled down before apologising.
- [BNZ profit falls 23% to $1.16b as technology costs and bad debts rise](https://goodoil.news/bnz-profit-falls-23-to-1-16b-as-technology-costs-and-bad-debts-rise/). BNZ profit fell 23 per cent to $1.16b as technology costs and bad debts rose.
- ['Common sense has prevailed': Agriculture will remain a standalone subject at high schools](https://goodoil.news/common-sense-has-prevailed-agriculture-will-remain-a-standalone-subject-at-high-schools/). Agriculture stays a standalone high-school subject after the government reversed course. Common sense prevailed, they say.
- [NZ’s Natural Health Products Regulations](https://goodoil.news/nzs-natural-health-products-regulations/). Natural health product regulation submissions closed at 11:59 pm. Another watchdog night.
- [A Complex Challenge for the Future](https://goodoil.news/a-complex-challenge-for-the-future/). ML Kearney on immigration, superannuation and welfare, and what multiculturalism does to cohesion.
- [That Time I Was a Candidate for the Women’s Rights Party](https://goodoil.news/that-time-i-was-a-candidate-for-the-womens-rights-party/). Yvonne van Dongen on the accidental politician years with the Women's Rights Party.
- [Is This Pork Barrel Politics?](https://goodoil.news/is-this-pork-barrel-politics/). Shane Jones and a pre-election regional energy handout. Pee Kay calls pork barrel politics.
- [It Seems Diversity Is Redefined](https://goodoil.news/it-seems-diversity-is-redefined/). Karl du Fresne on a Golden Bay festival cancelling an Israeli DJ. Diversity, redefined.
- [Who Runs the Country After the Election](https://goodoil.news/who-runs-the-country-after-the-election/). When officials, not ministers, decide what the public gets, they override the voters' choice.
- [Recognise the Value of Every Human Life](https://goodoil.news/recognise-the-value-of-every-human-life/). Alwyn Poole: teach every child for what they can become, not as if their past is a ceiling.
- [The Frauds and Lies](https://goodoil.news/the-frauds-and-lies/). Psychology's greatest hits were wrong, false or fraudulent. Then comes the advice if Labour wins.
- [Google turns off AI for schoolchildren by default](https://goodoil.news/google-turns-off-ai-for-schoolchildren-by-default/). Google turns AI off by default for school accounts. The ed-tech debate writes itself.

## Across the Tasman

- [Spare Us the Lectures from Has-Beens](https://goodoil.news/spare-us-the-lectures-from-has-beens/). Ardern lands a professor of practice gig. The lefty lobster-pot is a bottomless gilded cage.
- [Tell Me This Isn’t a Government Operation](https://goodoil.news/tell-me-this-isnt-a-government-operation-3/). Australia Post and a fleet of electric lemons gathering dust. Millions wasted, again.
- [Jeff Knows Hubris When He Sees It](https://goodoil.news/jeff-knows-hubris-when-he-sees-it/). Jeff Kennett warns the Vic Libs not to get carried away with the polls. He learned the hard way.
- [The Only Way Is Down](https://goodoil.news/the-only-way-is-down/). One Nation takes the lead as Labor and the coalition keep slumping. Albanese's only way is down.
- [This Is How the Left ‘Tone It Down’?](https://goodoil.news/this-is-how-the-left-tone-it-down/). A One Nation volunteer bashed with a baseball bat in Victoria. This is how the left tones it down.
- [I’ve Seen Flatworms with Greater Self-Awareness](https://goodoil.news/ive-seen-flatworms-with-greater-self-awareness/). Ardern lectures on public mistrust and binary thinking. Flatworms have shown more self-awareness.
- [ABC Wails as Luvvie Jailed](https://goodoil.news/abc-wails-as-luvvie-jailed/). Children's author Craig Silvey jailed over child exploitation material. The ABC despairs for the bookshelves.
- [So Much for ‘Tone It Down’](https://goodoil.news/so-much-for-tone-it-down/). State-funded media bury news of leftist violence again. Tone it down means bury it.
- [Would They like Valet Parking with That?](https://goodoil.news/would-they-like-valet-parking-with-that/). Inner-city EV owners want dedicated parking on top of the subsidies. Valet next?
- [Australia Dragged Back to GFC Days](https://goodoil.news/australia-dragged-back-to-gfc-days/). Australians are worse off than they were 18 years ago. Back to GFC living standards.

## Britain, Europe and the world

- [The Tommy Robinson Show Trial](https://goodoil.news/the-tommy-robinson-show-trial/). Tommy Robinson convicted 10-2 at Southwark on harassment counts. John Surtees calls it a show trial.
- [Do You Girls Have a Licence for That Tea Party?](https://goodoil.news/do-you-girls-have-a-licence-for-that-tea-party/). A 12-year-old's pretend teddy bear cafe drew a council investigation for illegal trading.
- [Speech in Britain: An Endangered Liberty](https://goodoil.news/speech-in-britain-an-endangered-liberty/). Britain now compels the right speech through DEI protocols and dignity codes, not just bans the wrong speech.
- [He’s Admitting This Is Failing](https://goodoil.news/hes-admitting-this-is-failing/). London's police chief says the city is so lawless its diverse criminals need a matching constabulary. Laurie Wastell hears a confession.
- [Time to Look Back in Anger](https://goodoil.news/time-to-look-back-in-anger/). Paul Birch on the Nowak family and an ITV documentary the Met would rather you did not watch.
- [Letter from the North](https://goodoil.news/letter-from-the-north-52/). Letter from the North is back with a UK budget update from the West Country.
- [Has China Passed the Tipping-Point?](https://goodoil.news/has-china-passed-the-tipping-point/). Geriatrics overtake juniors in the Middle Kingdom. Has China passed the tipping point?
- [North Korea blamed for US$6.3 billion crypto heist pulled off in just 20 minutes](https://goodoil.news/north-korea-blamed-for-us-6-3-billion-crypto-heist-pulled-off-in-just-20-minutes/). North Korean hackers blamed for a US$6.3b Binance heist, most of it gone in 20 minutes.
- [Canada Moves to Expand Euthanasia](https://goodoil.news/canada-moves-to-expand-euthanasia/). Canada moves to expand MAiD. Ethical issues for society's most vulnerable.
- [Climate Change Suffers From Reality](https://goodoil.news/climate-change-suffers-from-reality/). Democrats' climate agenda takes a back seat the moment higher fuel prices meet politics.
- [How ‘Woke 1.0’ Gave Birth to a New Strain of Socialism](https://goodoil.news/how-woke-1-0-gave-birth-to-a-new-strain-of-socialism/). Gain-of-function Marxism escaped the Woke 1.0 lab. Tyler O'Neil says do not spread it.
- [The West’s Free Speech Consensus Is Fracturing](https://goodoil.news/the-wests-free-speech-consensus-is-fracturing/). European crackdowns on citizen speech are provoking Washington. Free expression as a transatlantic fault line.

## Culture wars

- [It’s Not the ‘Manosphere’ Wot Dun It](https://goodoil.news/its-not-the-manosphere-wot-dun-it/). Cancel culture looks a lot like girls' clique behaviour turbocharged by smartphones.
- [Young Men Care About Consent Very Much](https://goodoil.news/young-men-care-about-consent-very-much/). Young men care about consent because a jilted date could send them to prison.
- [The Gender Bias of AI Is Stark](https://goodoil.news/the-gender-bias-of-ai-is-stark/). AI's gender bias is stark, and it is not the bias feminists want you to see.
- [The Bearded Lady of Oxford](https://goodoil.news/the-bearded-lady-of-oxford/). Oxford's bearded lady gets to monster unwilling women at work. Britain used to keep freakshows in Whitechapel.
- [How One Man Wrote a Modern Myth](https://goodoil.news/how-one-man-wrote-a-modern-myth/). A single Wikipedia editor fabricated the Islamic Golden Age. The Ministry of Truth would be proud.
- [Politics may depend more on how macho you feel than whether you are a man](https://goodoil.news/politics-may-depend-more-on-how-macho-you-feel-than-whether-you-are-a-man/). How masculine or feminine you feel may predict politics better than biological sex, in a US study of 3,000 adults.

## Science, history and the odd bit of fun

- [The ‘Good Old Days’ Weren’t](https://goodoil.news/the-good-old-days-werent-2/). Pre-industrial life was miserable, dirty and all too short. H G Wells had the toothache test ready.
- [Did They Read the Stories at All?](https://goodoil.news/did-they-read-the-stories-at-all/). Whackadoodle occultists tried to summon Lovecraft's Elder Gods. Did they even read the stories?
- [A cracking discovery? Egg nutrient linked to higher IQ scores](https://goodoil.news/a-cracking-discovery-egg-nutrient-linked-to-higher-iq-scores/). Maternal high-dose choline linked to nearly eight IQ points higher at age four in an American study.
- [They Knew Microplastics Were a Threat, In 1974](https://goodoil.news/they-knew-microplastics-were-a-threat-in-1974/). Scientists flagged microplastics in 1974\. Is it time to go back to glass bottles?
- [The Earth Abides Without End](https://goodoil.news/the-earth-abides-without-end/). The world has been about to end since forever. Yet here it still is.
- [The Consequences of Gen Z’s Risk Aversion](https://goodoil.news/the-consequences-of-gen-zs-risk-aversion/). People more willing to take risks intend to have more kids. Gen Z's risk aversion has a baby problem.
- [To Save the Environment We Need to Bring Back Plastic Straws](https://goodoil.news/to-save-the-environment-we-need-to-bring-back-plastic-straws/). A Korean study found plastic straws beat paper and others on 10 of 16 environmental measures.
- [Make Room for the Telegraph Diaspora](https://goodoil.news/make-room-for-the-telegraph-diaspora/). Telegraph readers are washing up on Substack. Laura Dodsworth says budge up and put the kettle on.

## Ten@10 and the cartoons

- Ten@10, the stories they chose not to tell you: [2026/202](https://goodoil.news/your-daily-ten-10-2026-202/), [2026/203](https://goodoil.news/your-daily-ten-10-2026-203/), [2026/204](https://goodoil.news/your-daily-ten-10-2026-204/), [2026/205](https://goodoil.news/your-daily-ten-10-2026-205/).
- Cartoons of the day (Paid): [Decline of the West](https://goodoil.news/decline-of-the-west/), [Running for Cover](https://goodoil.news/running-for-cover/), [Dog Tucker](https://goodoil.news/dog-tucker/).

The columns and Real Good Oil are paid, and the Quick Hits are VIP. That's where the numbers live. [Upgrade and read the lot](https://goodoil.news/#/portal/upgrade).