> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://goodoil.news/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Williamson on the Seats That Could Decide - URL: https://goodoil.news/williamson-on-the-seats-that-could-decide/ - Published: 2026-10-25T21:00:00.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-25T20:59:59.000Z - Description: Williamson also goes through the marginal electorates where he says the candidate vote will decide the result. - Author: Press Releases - Tags: NZ Politics, National Party, Election 2026 **Penny Marie** *People in Politics podcast* Former National Party MP of 30 years Maurice Williamson has returned to the People in Politics podcast, hosted by independent journalist Penny Marie and co-host Paul Mathews. In the episode he explains why two-tick National voters could cost the coalition the 2026 election. National currently holds 44 electorates. Williamson calculates that even an “impossible” 20 per cent rise on National’s current support of around 28 per cent would take its party vote only to about 33.6 per cent. That is far short of what it needs to match its electorate seats. National’s list intake has already fallen from 19 MPs in 2014 to five in 2023\. Below zero is overhang territory, where a National party vote adds nothing. “National can’t get its party vote anywhere near matching the big block of electorates that it’s currently going to hold or win,” Williamson says. In the episode, the , an MMP simulator is used to demonstrate what Maurice is saying. At 30.2 per cent, the NZ Herald Poll of Polls figure for National at the end of September, the result is a hung parliament. As National’s party vote is moved to ACT andNZ First, the centre-right majority grows to eight seats. Williamson calls it “almost alchemy”. Williamson also goes through the marginal electorates where he says the candidate vote will decide the result: ● Nelson: Labour won by just 26 votes in 2023. ● Mt Albert: National’s Melissa Lee lost by 18 votes. ● Wigram, Hutt South, Wairarapa and West Coast-Tasman are also on his list. **His advice in a nutshell**: In marginal seats, give your candidate vote to the National candidate. In every seat, give your party vote to ACT or NZ First. Epsom and Tāmaki are the exceptions, because those are the seats where he predicts ACT may win the candidate vote. Watch the full episode: [https://youtu.be/93o\_WC9P74g](https://youtu.be/93o%5FWC9P74g?ref=goodoil.news) Read the full article: Try the interactive simulator: Voting opens on 26 October and election day is Saturday 7 November.