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# Your Daily Ten@10 - 2026/202
- URL: https://goodoil.news/your-daily-ten-10-2026-202/
- Published: 2026-11-01T21:00:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-11-01T20:59:59.000Z
- Description: 10 News Stories They Chose Not to Tell You
- Author: Cam Slater
- Tags: Ten@10, NZ Politics, Free Speech, Media, Culture, Economy

**This is edition 2026/202 of the *Ten@10* newsletter.**

Hi all,

This is the Ten@10, where I collate and summarise ten news items you generally won't see in the mainstream media.

Enjoy!

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![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/31/f4/31f4e20a-0315-499e-83ff-139e8eab53bf/content/images/2026/10/01-ten202.jpg)

## 1\. Democracy Briefing: Who is paying to engineer the election overhang?

*Bryce Edwards - The Democracy Project*

- 📰 The Herald ran a full-page ad written by Don Brash and placed by RCR Media, the company behind Reality Check Radio. It told readers not to party vote National.
- ✍️ Electoral Commission rules need written sign-off from each party an ad promotes. So Edwards says Act and NZ First have almost certainly authorised it.
- 🧾 If they did, the ad's cost counts against their own spending limits and has to show up in their expense returns, even though RCR paid for it.
- 🎙️ Harry Mowbray told Sean Plunket on The Platform he'd put "a little bit of money" into RCR's campaign. He wouldn't say how much.
- 📱 He also confirmed money went to social media commentators Chantelle Baker and Penny Marie to boost posts on strategic voting.
- 🌐 Mowbray says his Split Your Vote website came down after the Electoral Commission told him the $35 domain made it an election ad.
- 🏢 RCR registered as a promoter on 9 October and can spend up to $424,000\. Its directors are Claire Deeks and Alia Bland.
- 🙈 Promoters don't have to name donors, and big spenders' returns aren't due until 9 March 2027\. Voters may never know who paid.
- 🔪 My take? Vote splitting is legal and the left did it first. But advance voting is already open. If you're telling people how to vote, tell them who's paying for it.

[Read More](https://www.democracyproject.org.nz/p/democracy-briefing-who-is-paying?ref=goodoil.news)

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![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/31/f4/31f4e20a-0315-499e-83ff-139e8eab53bf/content/images/2026/10/02-ten202.jpg)

## 2\. NICK MOWBRAY: Split your vote

*Nick Mowbray - Brash and Mitchell*

- 💰 Mowbray opens with it: "I am National's largest donor." But he doesn't agree with them on how you should vote.
- 🎯 His priority is a centre-right government. National, like every party, has its own interests.
- 🗳️ His advice is blunt. Electorate vote: National. Party vote: NZ First or ACT.
- 🧮 He says he wants National's list MPs in too, but voters have to confront the electoral maths.
- ⬅️ He points out the left ran this strategy first, and it's a tight election.
- 🧸 Zuru earns less than 1% of its revenue in New Zealand, he says. His interest is a prosperous country to raise his kids in.
- 🔨 "A country of makers not takers."
- 🔪 My take? Short and sharp. It's a post from his X account, republished. Hard to argue National's biggest donor is a stooge for the other side.

[Read More](https://www.brashandmitchell.com/post/nick-mowbray-split-your-vote?ref=goodoil.news)

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![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/31/f4/31f4e20a-0315-499e-83ff-139e8eab53bf/content/images/2026/10/03-ten202.jpg)

## 3\. A Promise At Eberswalde.

*Chris Trotter - Chris Trotter (Substack)*

- 🏟️ Trotter opens at Eberswalde stadium in July 1932, where Hitler told 40,000 people Germany's 30 parties would disappear.
- 📜 A year later the Law Against the Formation of Parties made the Nazis the only legal party. Promise kept.
- ⚠️ His warning: when enough voters see democracy as the cause of their woes, not the fix, democratic norms are in trouble.
- 📊 He cites a Helen Clark Foundation study. Only 32% are satisfied with their finances, and food insecurity sits at 25%.
- 🦸 And 32% of New Zealanders, 48% of men under 44, liked the idea of a strong leader who doesn't have to bother with parliament or elections.
- 🧩 He blames the economy, a culture of rampant individualism, race and gender politics and a tech revolution. And he says MMP has made it worse.
- 🇩🇪 The allies imposed MMP on West Germany to force compromise. Trotter says in a crisis, too many choices confuse a frightened people.
- ⚖️ His answer is a simple binary, Left or Right, with losers willing to wear defeat rather than rig permanent victory.
- 🔪 My take? Grim reading a week out from polling day. One in three wanting a strongman should worry every party, not just the losers.

[Read More](https://christrotter418256.substack.com/p/a-promise-at-eberswalde)

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![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/31/f4/31f4e20a-0315-499e-83ff-139e8eab53bf/content/images/2026/10/04-ten202.jpg)

## 4\. The Election Story Everyone Is Missing

*Simon O'Connor - On Point*

- 🔍 O'Connor says commentators hunting for an election-changing moment may have missed one that has already happened.
- 🏚️ It's Te Pati Maori MP Oriini Kaipara's appearance at a gang pad, and what she said afterwards.
- 📉 He argues it shows a deeper problem for the centre-left than the polls suggest.
- 🔪 My take? Paywalled, so that's all I can see. Worth a read if you subscribe.

[Read More](https://onpointnz.substack.com/p/the-election-story-everyone-is-missing)

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![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/31/f4/31f4e20a-0315-499e-83ff-139e8eab53bf/content/images/2026/10/05-ten202.jpg)

## 5\. Who gets to run your life?

*Ani O'Brien - Thought Crimes*

- 🧭 Ani O'Brien says the real choice on 7 November is how much of your life gets decided in Wellington.
- ⚖️ Her rough line: the left wants government further into our lives, the right wants to push it back out.
- 📚 She runs the parties past the philosophers. Rawls asks whether a policy actually helps the least advantaged. Hayek says no central planner knows enough.
- 🏠 Exhibit A is Labour's rent-to-buy policy: $100 a week towards a deposit for eligible working tenants in Kainga Ora and community housing.
- 🏘️ Two similar families in the same suburb. One rents privately and gets nothing. The other could get $5,200 a year, partly paid for by the first.
- 🧓 She reminds Labour that Savage's Social Security Act 1938 required benefit applicants to be willing to work.
- 💸 Budget 2026 forecasts $27 billion on welfare in 2026/27 plus $26.5 billion on Super. "So $53.5 billion for one year of social spending."
- 📈 Marama Davidson guessed we pay 1 to 2% on government debt. O'Brien says the 10 year bond yield is around 4.9%.
- 🔪 My take? "Every new intervention and its inclusions creates a new set of exclusions." Long read, but the clearest left versus right piece of the campaign.

[Read More](https://aniobrien.substack.com/p/who-gets-to-run-your-life)

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![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/31/f4/31f4e20a-0315-499e-83ff-139e8eab53bf/content/images/2026/10/06-ten202.jpg)

## 6\. RODNEY HIDE: The Future

*Rodney Hide - Brash and Mitchell*

- 🚗 Hide starts with a car park business case built on careful traffic data. In fifteen years, he says, it'll be empty.
- 🤖 Driverless Teslas are already carrying paying passengers in six American cities. "We are pouring concrete for a world that is leaving."
- 🧠 The bigger story is superintelligence, and robots that make robots. Then labour, resources and power all get cheap.
- 🔑 What's left scarce? Land, time, trust, and the rules we make ourselves. "In an age of abundance, the scarcest thing left will be permission."
- 📋 His briefing to incoming ministers: new tech is lawful here unless there's proven harm. If a trusted overseas regulator approves it, we do too.
- ⏱️ A regulator who wants to block something gets 60 days to show real harm. Miss the deadline and the answer is yes.
- 🏫 An SI tutor for every child. Data centres and power stations consented in months, not years.
- 💵 Fast-lane tech firms pay a power levy into a Citizen's Fund that pays every citizen a dividend, like Alaska has done with oil since 1982.
- 🔪 My take? Hide admits he won't have it all right. But he's asking the question nobody on the campaign trail is: what's government for when the machines do the work?

[Read More](https://www.brashandmitchell.com/post/rodney-hide-the-future?ref=goodoil.news)

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![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/31/f4/31f4e20a-0315-499e-83ff-139e8eab53bf/content/images/2026/10/07-ten202.jpg)

## 7\. DON BRASH: Want to keep the Left out of government?

*Don Brash - Brash and Mitchell*

- 📰 This is the full text of Brash's advertorial that ran in the Herald on 29 October. "It sounds backwards - but hear me out."
- 🙅 National wants "two ticks blue" and Sir John Key says splitting is "the opposite of clever". Brash says this isn't an ordinary election.
- 🧮 National's electorate strength is well above its party vote. If it wins more electorates than its party vote earns, extra National party votes add no MPs.
- 📐 His example: National wins 40 electorates against an entitlement of 34\. Parliament grows to 126 with a six-seat overhang.
- ⬅️ Te Pati Maori is already urging supporters to party vote Green or Labour to engineer a left overhang, he says.
- 🧑‍🏫 He cites former National minister Maurice Williamson: even if National's party vote rose from 28% to 33%, it may not add one list MP.
- 🗳️ Brash reckons about 25,000 party votes buys each extra NZ First or ACT list MP.
- 🏉 Williamson's line: "It's like a rugby game. It does not matter if the winger, the lock or the kicker scores, so long as the team wins".
- 🔪 My take? Read this with item 1\. Edwards wants to know who paid for it. Brash wants you to read it.

[Read More](https://www.brashandmitchell.com/post/don-brash-want-to-keep-the-left-out-of-government?ref=goodoil.news)

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![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/31/f4/31f4e20a-0315-499e-83ff-139e8eab53bf/content/images/2026/10/08-ten202.jpg)

## 8\. The Overhang 2.11 - Lower case “o”

*rustie - The Overhang*

- 📊 The Overhang's forecaster is sticking with a 40-seat, eight-seat overhang call for National. The Herald/Motu, Stuff and NZElectionPredictor show overhangs too.
- 🗺️ The structural reason: Labour's vote is packed into the Maori seats and South Auckland. National's is spread across suburban and small-town seats.
- 🤝 Labour voters are historically more willing to back a National candidate than the reverse. That's worth about 3% to National.
- ✂️ There are six fewer list seats than when MMP started, because electorates keep growing inside a fixed 120.
- 🎖️ National is fielding 17 established candidates plus 21 one-term incumbents. Labour has just 14.
- 🚫 ACT is missing from 10 competitive seats this year, including Hutt South, which helps National candidates there.
- 🗑️ The wasted vote is usually about 6%. Parties outside Parliament are polling under 0.4%, so there are fewer spare list seats.
- 🎲 The headline: the overhang roughly doubles the coalition's chances, from 32% to 65%.
- 🔪 My take? The model is the author's, not a poll, and they say so. But the maths explains why everyone is suddenly talking about this.

[Read More](https://theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overhang-211-the-lower-case-o)

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![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/31/f4/31f4e20a-0315-499e-83ff-139e8eab53bf/content/images/2026/10/luxon--1--1.jpg)

## 9\. National still refusing to accept the obvious

*Peter Allan Williams - Peter’s Substack*

- 🗳️ Williams says National is as staunch as ever against tactical vote splitting, the one tactic he says keeps Luxon as PM.
- 📰 The Herald reports Luxon called it "disappointing", and National says the RCR ads "trying to confuse" voters.
- 🙄 He calls that patronising. Te Pati Maori voters worked it out ages ago.
- ✂️ He's split his own vote at least twice, including in 2023\. Most people do, he reckons.
- 📉 National polls in the high 20s, with RNZ-Reid Research at 24.8\. Act and NZ First together sit around 20%.
- 🏛️ He expects the largest Parliament in our history, possibly up to 130 seats.
- 🤔 He takes on a Substack by Zoran Rakovic suggesting National might prefer to lose office and rebuild.
- 🧭 His reply: National is flailing because it forgot its own principles, and a Labour-Greens-Opportunity-Te Pati Maori government means asset taxes.
- 🔪 My take? "Voters are not stupid." National's leaders know two ticks blue won't work. They just can't say so.

[Read More](https://peterallanwilliams.substack.com/p/national-still-refusing-to-accept)

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![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/31/f4/31f4e20a-0315-499e-83ff-139e8eab53bf/content/images/2026/10/10-ten202.jpg)

## 10\. RICHARD PREBBLE - Interesting election races: Chris Bishop

*Richard Prebble - Brash and Mitchell*

- 🏛️ Prebble says some electorate races matter because electing a good candidate makes a better Parliament.
- 🗑️ "Frankly, many MPs are third raters whom you would not employ to take out the rubbish."
- 🤝 "It is not often I agree with Winston Peters, but Chris Bishop is a remarkable MP."
- 🏗️ He credits Bishop as the driving force behind cross-party agreement on a long-term infrastructure plan.
- 📜 Parliament has known the RMA was flawed for 30 years. Successive governments failed to replace it. "Bishop succeeded."
- 🔁 Labour opposed parts of the new law but isn't campaigning to repeal it.
- 📋 His opponent Ginny Andersen is 12th on Labour's list, so she'll be back in Parliament regardless.
- ✅ He asks Labour voters in Hutt South to back Bishop and keep their party vote for Labour.
- 🔪 My take? A former ACT leader and Peters both backing a National MP in one week. Bishop must be doing something right.

[Read More](https://www.brashandmitchell.com/post/richard-prebble-interesting-election-races-chris-bishop?ref=goodoil.news)

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