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# Your Daily Ten@10 - 2026/204
- URL: https://goodoil.news/your-daily-ten-10-2026-204/
- Published: 2026-11-03T21:00:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-11-03T21:00:09.000Z
- Description: 10 News Stories They Chose Not to Tell You
- Author: Cam Slater
- Tags: Ten@10, NZ Politics, Free Speech, Media, Culture, Economy

**This is edition 2026/204 of the *Ten@10* newsletter.**

Hi all,

This is the Ten@10, where I collate and summarise ten news items you generally won't see in the mainstream media.

Enjoy!

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![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/31/f4/31f4e20a-0315-499e-83ff-139e8eab53bf/content/images/2026/11/01-ten204.jpg)

## 1\. Democracy Briefing: The overhang that could decide the election

*Bryce Edwards - The Democracy Project*

- ⚖️ Edwards says the kingmaker role has passed from Qiulae Wong and Opportunity to the MMP overhang in the campaign's final week.
- 🧮 National holds 44 electorates, but its party vote has fallen from 38% in 2023 to 29% in 1News-Verian and 24.8% in RNZ-Reid Research.
- 📈 The Overhang forecasting site projects an average of eight extra seats for National and three for Te Pāti Māori. That's a Parliament of 131 needing 66 for a majority.
- 🎲 On that forecast the coalition has "a 67% chance of governing without needing Opportunity".
- 📰 He calls it the strangest campaign of the MMP era: ACT and NZ First authorised Don Brash's daily ad telling voters not to party vote National, and National has complained to the Electoral Commission.
- 🍵 Sir John Key, of the 2011 Epsom cup of tea, now urges Epsom voters to back Paul Goldsmith.
- 🔁 He condemns Te Pāti Māori's electorate-vote strategy just as much as the right's, saying an engineered overhang distorts Parliament whichever bloc benefits.
- 🛠️ The Electoral Commission's 2012 review and the 2023 Independent Electoral Review both recommended abolishing overhang seats. Neither was acted on.
- 🔪 Takeaway: Splitting your vote is legal and it's how MMP works. If the left can do it in the Māori seats, the right can do it in the general seats.

[Read More](https://www.democracyproject.org.nz/p/democracy-briefing-the-overhang-that?ref=goodoil.news)

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![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/31/f4/31f4e20a-0315-499e-83ff-139e8eab53bf/content/images/2026/11/02-ten204.jpg)

## 2\. The Left does not have a monopoly on empathy

*Ani O'Brien - Thought Crimes*

- 🪟 O'Brien starts with the man who put a crowbar through a window at Winston Peters' home while his partner and a friend were inside.
- 🎤 Days later Chloe Swarbrick introduced actress Acacia O'Connor at a Greens press conference. O'Connor had livestreamed from the protest outside Peters' home.
- 😢 Now Swarbrick claims National is "effectively cyberbullying her". RNZ counted 37 of National's 94 Instagram posts over six days featuring her or her party.
- 🎯 O'Brien says the ads respond to fears about Swarbrick as Finance Minister. They don't create them.
- 📚 She cites a study of 4,737 people in the UK and US: conservatives consistently expressed more empathy towards liberals than the reverse.
- 🤬 She points to Andrea Vance calling Nicola Willis and other female ministers "c\*\*\*s" with no sanctions, and the abuse Judith Collins copped with no media interest.
- 🏞️ At Albert Park in 2023, she says, a grandmother was punched in the face. Swarbrick called the protest "peaceful".
- 🔪 Takeaway: Empathy that only flows to your own side isn't empathy. Swarbrick can dish it out, so she can take a few attack ads.

[Read More](https://aniobrien.substack.com/p/the-left-does-not-have-a-monopoly-on-empathy)

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![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/31/f4/31f4e20a-0315-499e-83ff-139e8eab53bf/content/images/2026/11/03-ten204.jpg)

## 3\. The Overhang 2.12 - Seated (Part 1)

*rustie - The Overhang*

- 🗺️ The Overhang starts a seat-by-seat guide to the electorate races, based on its modelling as of 26 October.
- 📊 Its nationwide assumption: Labour 28%, National 26%, Greens 15%, NZ First 12%, ACT 10%, Opportunity 6.4%, Te Pāti Māori 1.1%.
- 👀 Banks Peninsula and East Cape are the ones to watch to see whether Labour can make gains that stymie National's overhang.
- 🔴 In Banks Peninsula, Vanessa Weenink brings a 0.85pp majority to the rematch with Tracey McLellan. The model predicts Labour by 6pp.
- 🎲 Christchurch Central is called the hardest general seat in the country to predict, with National's Dale Stephens a real chance to come up the middle.
- 🟢 Dunedin is a near even call between Labour's Rachel Brooking and the Greens' Francisco Hernandez, who are both locks on the list anyway.
- 🧢 Botany: Christopher Luxon will be re-elected with only a slightly decreased margin.
- ✅ Auckland Central, Christchurch East and Coromandel are not in doubt. Swarbrick's position is called safe.
- 🔪 Takeaway: If you're watching the overhang on Saturday night, watch Banks Peninsula and East Cape.

[Read More](https://theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overhang-212-seated-part-1)

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![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/31/f4/31f4e20a-0315-499e-83ff-139e8eab53bf/content/images/2026/11/04-ten204.jpg)

## 4\. RICHARD PREBBLE: Is the election already over?

*Richard Prebble - Brash and Mitchell*

- 🛒 Prebble hadn't meant to vote early, but his eleven-year-old grandson wanted to watch him vote at a huge polling station in the mall.
- 🗳️ By Friday nearly 600,000 votes had been cast, 32 per cent more than at the same stage in 2023.
- 📈 He wouldn't be surprised if the weekend figures take the total close to a million. That's about a third of the expected vote.
- 📜 When he was an MP, advance voting needed a special reason and a declaration. Since 2011 anyone can vote early.
- 🧑‍🎓 He reckons the easy enrolling and voting should help the left, especially parties attracting younger voters.
- 🤐 Early voting makes "a nonsense of the ban on election-day campaigning when we effectively have twelve election days."
- 📉 Minor parties often relied on the final week. TOP risks missing the threshold, but high enrolment and turnout must help it.
- 🔪 Takeaway: A third of the votes are already banked. Any party still saving its big pitch for the last week has left it too late.

[Read More](https://www.brashandmitchell.com/post/richard-prebble-is-the-election-already-over?ref=goodoil.news)

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![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/31/f4/31f4e20a-0315-499e-83ff-139e8eab53bf/content/images/2026/11/9Tzi8ywRz924XE3uHaD6DZ3Ef-IdbOiYlvIROR5vlqUSeZYZbm-SU0zjMnNqDfql8Yk4r-Ht43oxrl86VwI5ID0m56GaDxw9TPAeM08swGTv3lyMLiEpkfzJkSgXYfIxBkgEVA-N1-YIqh2SbwzHm_5GbykhbTHcr5YzQlUK3ZXwRZ6nZP-qMZeb6Q8-aJCXYuj_PYdkFzZRwacy6ZeOKQiJZ5E8LXe9m2m8QfePTMu0y-N.jpeg)

## 5\. Diversity redefined

*Karl du Fresne - Karl du Fresne*

- 🎧 Karl du Fresne looked into a Golden Bay music festival that cancelled an Israeli DJ named Dekel.
- 🇮🇱 It was reportedly because Dekel failed to publicly condemn his country's actions in Gaza.
- 🌐 So du Fresne went to the website of the festival organisers, Twisted Frequency.
- 📜 Under a long statement of high-minded values, he found a section headed Diversity.
- 🌈 It says gender and race diversity "are not just buzzwords" and are essential to music.
- 📣 The organisers say they "strive to amplify the voices of underrepresented artists".
- 🤔 Apparently that doesn't stretch to an Israeli DJ who won't make a political statement on cue.
- 🔪 Du Fresne's verdict: "Hypocrisy is one word that comes to mind. Priggishness, bigotry and intolerance are three others."

[Read More](https://karldufresne.blogspot.com/2026/11/diversity-redefined.html?ref=goodoil.news)

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## 6\. A Sacred Trust Betrayed

*Gary Judd KC - Thoughts from the North*

- ⚖️ Gary Judd KC says the biggest threat to a free and democratic society here may be the judiciary embracing tikanga Māori.
- 🏛️ His charge: judicial independence is "being sacrificed on the altar of the institutionalization of tikanga."
- 📜 He leans on medievalist M T Clanchy's study of how England moved from memory to written record after the Norman Conquest.
- 🧠 Clanchy wrote that remembered truth was flexible, because "no ancient custom could be proved to be older than the memory of the oldest living wise man."
- ✍️ Judd notes no written system existed in New Zealand before Europeans arrived, so tikanga has no written record to test claims against.
- 🧑‍⚖️ In the Ellis case, a Supreme Court majority accepted Sir Hirini Moko Mead and Sir Pou Temara's statement that tikanga is the "first law".
- ❗ He says that rested on nothing but the assertion itself, and has been echoed by law schools and the Law Commission.
- 🔍 He argues judges who defer to extra-judicial authorities aren't deciding cases according to the law and the evidence.
- 🔪 Takeaway: If the content of the law is whatever the experts say it is, the judges aren't independent. Judd calls it "betraying a sacred trust."

[Read More](https://garyjuddkc.substack.com/p/a-sacred-trust-betrayed)

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## 7\. RICHARD PREBBLE- Interesting electorate races: Epsom

*Richard Prebble - Brash and Mitchell*

- 🗣️ Prebble calls John Key the best natural politician of his time in Parliament.
- 💱 But he says the skills that made Key a successful currency trader, reacting to the present, are also his weakness.
- 🗳️ Key is right if you only think about next Saturday. Electing Paul Goldsmith in Epsom might give National another MP.
- 📚 It might also save Goldsmith "from returning to writing vanity biographies for the wealthy."
- 🏠 Prebble's point: without Epsom returning ACT MPs, the party would not have survived the swings of politics.
- 🌍 Elsewhere, conservative parties increasingly depend on illiberal, anti-immigration parties of the populist right.
- 🤝 Epsom has given National something better: a reliable partner committed to individual freedom, personal responsibility and the rule of law.
- 🔪 Takeaway: "Key is thinking about next Saturday. Epsom voters should be thinking about the elections that follow."

[Read More](https://www.brashandmitchell.com/post/richard-prebble-interesting-electorate-races-epsom?ref=goodoil.news)

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![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/31/f4/31f4e20a-0315-499e-83ff-139e8eab53bf/content/images/2026/11/08-ten204.jpg)

## 8\. How American Politics Became a Tower of Babel

*Peter Savodnik - The Free Press*

- 🗽 Ahead of the US midterms, Peter Savodnik goes back to voters to see what they're thinking.
- 💖 He starts with Faith Merrill, 20, who drove 11 hours with her mother to see Candace Owens at a Turning Point USA summit in 2023.
- 📱 Merrill resolved to become an influencer. She's now on her ninth TikTok account after repeated bans, with 65,000 followers.
- ✝️ She was baptised Catholic this year after Owens did the same, and says she will "always support Candace no matter what she says."
- 🌀 Her agenda, she told him, was always shifting.
- 🏷️ Savodnik's argument from 2024 still stands: liberal, conservative, Democrat and Republican have been sapped of their meaning.
- 🧱 He called it "The Great Scramble" and says Americans are still trapped in a Tower of Babel, unable to talk to each other.
- 🔪 Takeaway: The old labels don't tell you much any more. Here, the overhang fight has National and its own coalition partners at each other's throats.

[Read More](https://www.thefp.com/p/how-american-politics-became-a-tower-of-babel-midterms-democrats-republicans?ref=goodoil.news)

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![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/31/f4/31f4e20a-0315-499e-83ff-139e8eab53bf/content/images/2026/11/09-ten204.jpg)

## 9\. King Charles shouldn't apologise for Britain's role in the slave trade

*Hugo Timms - spiked*

- 👑 On his Caribbean tour, Hugo Timms says, it's been hard to tell if King Charles is a visiting monarch or a captured fugitive.
- 💰 Every country on the nine-day tour, the Bahamas, Guyana and Antigua and Barbuda, has a government that supports reparations.
- 🇬🇧 UK prime minister Andy Burnham has expressed his "sorrow and regret" and is reportedly open to indirect reparations.
- 📖 Timms leans on Nigel Biggar and Robert Tombs' new book, Our Islands' Story.
- 🏭 They argue that of all the slave-owning societies, only Britain produced an Industrial Revolution. Its wealth came from science, not slavery.
- 📊 In 1800, British slave owners held less than two per cent of the global enslaved population.
- ⚓ After 1807 Britain spent heavily stamping out the trade. In 1850 nearly 13 per cent of the Royal Navy was off West Africa.
- 🔪 Takeaway: Britain's big role in the slave trade was ending it. Sound familiar? Our own grievance industry works off the same script.

[Read More](https://www.spiked-online.com/2026/11/02/king-charles-shouldnt-apologise-for-britains-role-in-the-slave-trade/?ref=goodoil.news)

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![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/31/f4/31f4e20a-0315-499e-83ff-139e8eab53bf/content/images/2026/11/9Tzi8ywRz924XE3uHaD6DfGZQfjEdZd7oKlsiR53VLHvSZExpMzuRmKdwHbkL9Pkdmy1_lXhevjnQ7wDP3AaLC8KoAAASwKIpeuqpEFeGudK1nzMVT1CfiEXKqYUeHnAseg11Ghqf6yx_qgN59cL4vJy5Fk960ZfhfwVOomo57tZ2FxRHLV0ueH4DubeKn-p.webp)

## 10\. A disappointed libertarian votes

*Liberty Scott - Liberty Scott*

- 🗳️ Liberty Scott calls general elections "the advance auction of stolen goods", and says this one has been particularly woeful.
- 🙅 He says there's no libertarian option on the ballot. ACT isn't one, but is mostly "a party of the conscience of the National Party".
- 🤨 NZ First he calls fundamentally a party of opportunism, though he credits Winston Peters for ending funding of UNRWA.
- ✂️ He rates National's term better than the Key-English years because it actually repealed Labour's laws: Three Waters, the Māori Health Authority, Auckland Light Rail and more.
- 📚 But on education, healthcare and welfare he says it's all tinkering.
- 😬 His biggest disappointment is Luxon himself, "one of the most uselessly uninspiring and awkward Prime Ministers in recent history."
- 🔮 He reckons Luxon won't be Prime Minister at the 2029 election, short of a remarkable turnaround.
- ✅ His call: vote for one of the three coalition parties. He'll be party voting ACT, with many reservations.
- 🔪 Takeaway: A disappointing government is still "much less dangerous" than the alternative.

[Read More](https://libertyscott.blogspot.com/2026/10/a-disappointed-libertarian-votes.html?ref=goodoil.news)

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