Two articles in the business section of the Weekend Herald proved to be a good read. Both were basically unrelated in content but it was the cause for optimism that brings the two articles together. Before I delve into this though, I want to (as I do from time to time) comment on the doom and gloom pervading the political discussion on Backchat. A lot of it is in direct contradiction to the facts that are emerging in relation to the economy. As with climate change – the end is not nigh.
This government inherited (as usual) an economic half-empty glass from Labour. It has pretty much stayed that way, but there are signs the economic tap is being turned on and optimism is returning. That half-empty glass from 2025 could be a half-full one being topped up in 2026. There are some encouraging signs: business confidence is at a 30-year high on the basis of improved activity and the expectation of an economic rebound, and ANZ Business Outlook rose to a net 74 per cent.
For this Christopher Luxon, Todd McClay, Winston Peters (probably the best foreign minister ever) on the international stage and Shane Jones on the home front deserve credit. Luxon, I’m the first to agree, has come up short on domestic matters but on the international scene he shines. As a businessman, this is the turf he is most comfortable standing on. He may not be the consummate politician but, like The Donald, he knows and understands the pathway to getting a deal. This brings me to the first of the Herald articles.
Fran O’Sullivan writes that India’s FTA could reshape our exports and our politics. She’s not wrong. Fran opens her article with “Bold ambition and fearless execution – that’s what it has taken to get intense bilateral negotiations between India and New Zealand finalised so a trade deal could be announced just before the country broke for Christmas.” Bold ambition refers to Luxon; fearless execution belongs to McClay.
Fran says what is on the table is significant and it will be a fillip to our exporters over time. She says it’s no secret that it took time and a great deal of patience to get onto Modi’s dance card in the first place. Luxon credits time sitting alongside Modi in international forums as enabling him to build the necessary rapport, which provided an impetus to kick off free trade talks when he finally got to visit New Delhi.
Fran further comments that the deal will eliminate tariffs on 95 per cent of New Zealand’s existing exports to India, providing a competitive edge over Australia. Key sectors benefitting include sheep meat, wool, coal, forestry, seafood and high-value dairy products. The agreement aims to double New Zealand’s exports to India within five years. For setting a big ambition and, as a result of getting this deal done before Christmas, Fran has nominated Luxon and McClay as her joint politicians of the year.
The second article was written by Cecilia Robinson. Growing up in Sweden, she expected to spread her wings but always thought where they landed would be fairly close to home. Yet, over 20 years after arriving here this country, in her words, New Zealand “has quietly become home. I came expecting to stay briefly, before returning to Europe. Instead, life began to take shape around me. Relationships deepened. Work became meaningful. (Cecilia is a founder and co-chief executive of primary care provider Tend Health). Community formed.”
She goes on, “Over time, without any single decisive moment, this became home. It happens through everyday moments: school drop-offs, workmates who become friends, neighbours who look out for one another and the growing sense that this place is invested in you as you are invested in it.”
Cecilia talks about parents coming to visit, as hers did, not to persuade their children back, but to understand the place, to walk the beaches, to sit in the light and to watch how people live. Her parents fell in love with the country and have also moved here. New Zealand, she says, has a way of doing things gently. “I can think of many places I have lived from the United States to the United Kingdom and Australia, and none of them feels quite like this.”
“With open skies, open hearts and a sense of possibility that is difficult to manufacture and even harder to maintain, New Zealand offers space to think, to try, and to imagine a future that is both ambitious and grounded. You learn quickly that status counts for nothing and contribution counts for everything.” In Cecilia’s opinion New Zealand’s identity is deeply rooted, yet generous to grow as others contribute to it. She says that openness is one of the country’s quiet strengths and one that becomes increasingly important in a changing world.
In her words, the year ahead is an opportunity to be deliberate about how we use our strengths and how we build systems that genuinely reflect our values. As the year turns, there is reason for optimism. Not because the path ahead is easy but because the foundations are strong. She says being a Kiwi is, among other things, believing the best days are ahead of us. Of New Zealand, she says, “For me, it is the country that became my home, and one I am deeply grateful to be part of.”
Both these articles give cause for optimism. The first discusses optimism from a political standpoint; the other, from the advantages New Zealand offers for those who chose to live here. Apart from the India FTA, this coalition has put in place activity that will benefit the economy and they will continue to do so. We must never lose sight of the fact that the right, while not perfect, are better economic managers than the left. This is primarily why the current coalition government must be returned to office.
The reform of the RMA, the fast-track legislation and the infrastructure rollout – these are all designed to get the economy moving and create jobs. Nobody knows this better than Shane Jones, who is driving the means to improve the regional economies. The ‘roads of national significance’ are back, house building is being accelerated and farming confidence is back, along with business confidence. These are all good things that hopefully will be more apparent by the time of the election.
I think we should take a leaf out of Cecilia Robinson’s comments and, like her, view this country as one we are grateful to be a part of. As she suggests, we should believe the best days are ahead of us. She is right, there is reason for optimism. The coalition, for all its faults, sees that and is attempting to build on it. The problems they inherited are not a three-year fix, so it is imperative they are re-elected.
Although Cecilia has lived here a little over two decades, the views she expresses in her article still, to a degree, reflect those of someone from the outside looking in. I think this is a distinct advantage when analysing the position a country is currently in.
It allows anther perspective and it is from this that I think she is drawing her optimism. We should share in that and adopt a more positive attitude. There is good reason to.
I wish all the Good Oil contributors, and Lyn, who keeps the Good Oil oiled, a Very Happy New Year and all the best for a successful 2026.
