I am in no doubt many will look at the headline and say ‘I don’t think so’. Many are fixated on the National Party and the shortcomings of the prime minister, in particular, and I am not arguing that this is not valid, rather I am putting the case for my headline based on factors that I lay out below.
I know people have short memories, but I don’t think they’re so short enough to change the voting patterns from the last election sufficiently to bring about a change in the outcome. I am also aware that the current polls are pointing to a close run race. Indeed, the latest Roy Morgan poll out last week has the left coalition winning by one seat. The fact is polls are simply a snapshot in the time in which they are taken.
I think the polls currently are reflective of the comments made on The Good Oil. Voters are sending a message to the government that they are dissatisfied with progress on the economy and the lack of progress on other issues they campaigned on. They are doing this knowing that, at this stage of the election cycle, their views will have no bearing on the election outcome. This is a perfectly reasonable approach to take. Just a reminder on the economy – they inherited a complete mess.
For the Roy Morgan poll to hold through to the election, people would have to retain their views and vote accordingly. This would entail a sufficient number of swing voters switching from right to left and I don’t think those numbers will be there. Compared to 2020, there is no Covid bounce for Labour and the rural communities have now learnt their 2020 lesson from voting Labour to keep the Greens out. These two factors were instrumental in Labour getting the landslide win, but they are now gone.
The electorate at the moment is disgruntled at what they perceive as a lacklustre performance by the coalition Government. Applying a broad brush, that is understandable, but there are changes happening in important areas of government – in education, infrastructure, defence, housing, transport, trade and agriculture and energy. These are all components vital to the future success of the country. The changes happening would never be made under a left coalition.
Erica Stanford, one of the better performing ministers, is instituting a ‘back to basics’ in education in terms of the curriculum and the examinations, something that is sorely needed. On infrastructure, roading is once again a priority. On defence, there is more spending – welcome in an increasingly unstable world. On housing, there is intensification around transport hubs, particularly in Auckland.
Auckland Transport, which has been a law unto itself, is being stripped of most of its powers to concentrate solely on public transport services. On trade, Todd McLay, another minister I rate, has been working hard and he has restored confidence to the agriculture sector. There is also a lot of effort going into reforming the energy sector from Shane Jones whom I rate highly.
There has been some talk re Winston going back to Labour to keep the Greens and the Māori Party out. This won’t happen. First, it would have to be a very different election from the last for the numbers to stack up in such a way that would enable him to do that and, after the speech he gave to the party conference this past weekend, he would look a fool going back to Labour.
Second is his deputy, Shane Jones, who also delivered a good speech at the conference. The picture of him holding his head in his hands at the announcement by Ardern of the oil and gas ban tells you all you need to know. He is not putting all his energy into the fast-track legislation (another good thing) to enable him to achieve what he wants as minister of resources, and also provide a boost to the provinces, to have that all thrown away by another left coalition. Think about it.
This doesn’t mean National hasn’t got problems – which are mainly of their own making. They are out of step with the public on issues pertaining to race and the environment, to name but two. The Roy Morgan poll reflects this, showing Labour are more trusted on 14 out the 20 major issues. Allowing for the fact Roy Morgan does tend to bounce around a bit, overall they are a reliable and reputable polling company. However, these results are evidence this poll is not an election one.
This weekend saw another Māori Party member enter parliament courtesy of a low turnout in the Tāmaki Makaurau by-election. Nobody can tell me that the majority of voters are going to vote Labour knowing full well what the consequences of that will mean. I have more faith in my fellow Kiwis than that. The more encompassing result of the unthinkable happening is we would be well on our way to becoming a third-world country. I don’t believe that is a realistic possibility in most voters’ minds.
The upshot is Luxon will be saved, to some degree, by what the alternative is: Labour, Greens and the Māori Party. Labour are in la-la land, the Greens are loopy and the Māori lot are extreme racists. The majority of voters will not vote for that. Barbara (from Accounts) Edmonds will ensure maximum taxes are applied, free speech will be curtailed and Māori will rule the roost.
In other words the foxes will be in the henhouse and the lunatics will be running the asylum. Anyone voting for that scenario deserves to be in there with them. After listening to Winston and Shane I know where my party vote is going.
