13th March 2021
We have just completed 50 days from the start of the coup and what have we learned?
The resistance has been more widespread and stronger than the Military, especially Min Aung Hlaing ever considered possible. They were expecting it to peter out after a couple of weeks.
They have had to resort to the age-old policy (for Burma) of slash, burn, intimidate and kill – literally. This was expected to bully and cow the population into submission. So far, this hasn’t worked.
The military are dealing with a different society from the ones they beat into submission in the 60s and the 80s. During the brief sojourn to democracy the young have become more highly educated and experienced freedom their parents never had. The middle class has doubled in size as the economy was expanding at 7% per annum and this was trickling down to the poorer elements of society. People became relatively richer and don’t want to lose this. Most layers of society were exposed to the concept of justice, democracy, and fairness, often supported by NGOs and their civil society programs and soft diplomacy from western embassies. Even New Zealand was engaged in this, offering an increasing number of scholarships to Burmese students, especially from the regions.
The young are exposed to the internet and mobile phones in ways that their parents could only dream about, and they have developed strong domestic and international communication skills. They don’t want to give this up.
On the other hand, the Generals don’t want to give up their wealth and privileges that have been extracted from the Myanmar economy.
What is also happening is that the soldiers (especially the notorious 77th and 99th LIDs) are pictured taking great delight in shooting, maiming, and killing people. It is a source of great pleasure for them when they slaughter the protesters. They picture themselves on TikTok and other social media threatening all sorts of action against the protestors.
The economy is tanking, the CDM is working, even violence against workers is not persuading them to return to work. The economy is rapidly approaching meltdown as fuel reserves are dropping to close to a month’s supply, with only 10% of the normal number of tankers unloading in Myanmar.
The Military are hardening their stand, the protesters are holding firm, and the economic decline is hurting everyone. Outside influence is not having any effect – yet and China is getting nervous as it seems to have overplayed its hand. It can’t be seen to be supporting a democracy because that would have implications domestically. They are in danger of getting overspill from the EAOs resuming activities on the borders with China, causing cross border actions and interrupting the illicit trade in Gems, Teak, Jade, and women.
There is a glimmer of hope that this impasse can be breached, but somehow, both sides have to talk to each other. This is currently impossible at the very top of the Military and the NLD because of entrenched positions, personality clashes and fear of losing little parts of power.
What is happening though is connections are being made at a lower level on an informal basis, nothing serious, but just testing the water.
This glimmer of hope extends to Thailand’s view of the situation.
For Thailand, the stake is too high to allow the current crisis in Myanmar to escalate.
Thailand and Myanmar share a common border stretching over 2,400 kilometers. Dozens of armed ethnic groups on the Myanmar side of the border have always been a security concern for Thailand while there is always a strong potential of a major influx of Myanmar people into Thailand in the event of full-blown violent conflicts.
Comparatively speaking, Thailand might have appeared more restrained in its formal reaction to the unfolding crisis in its immediate neighbor. In one of his few comments on the violent crackdowns on pro-democracy protests in Myanmar last week, Don stressed the importance of “peace, stability and security in the region.” He also expressed “Thailand’s readiness, as a close neighbor and a fellow ASEAN member, to assist Myanmar in the pursuance of peaceful resolution for the benefit and interest of Myanmar people.”
“In doing so, trust is of vital importance,” he said.
And the Thai foreign minister has good reason to believe that Thailand has gained enough trust with Myanmar to play a mediating role in resolving the crisis. But don’t expect a repeat of the kind of Retno’s (Indonesia’s Foreign Minister) shuttle diplomacy that we have witnessed.
Thai officials would love to point out that fact that Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing wrote to Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha to seek advice on democratic transition and the Thai leader’s subsequent personal meeting with Wunna Maung Lwin are a good indication of the level of trust between the two leaders.
And they believe that trust between the two countries didn’t just come overnight. Thailand and Myanmar have been engaged in years of dialogue and negotiations over border affairs. Of course, there were tense moments and contentious issues between them but throughout all those years both sides were always seen as being sincere toward each other. And what should not be ignored is that there has been a good rapport between Foreign Minister Don and his Myanmar counterpart dating back to their days as ambassadors.
In their meeting in Bangkok and subsequent conversations, Don reportedly impressed upon his Myanmar counterpart the need for an immediate end to the violent suppression of the pro-democracy protests. Continued violence would only lead to more casualties, worsen the economy, and isolate the country – not to mention the potential of the crisis escalating into an all-out civil war with ethnic groups joining the fray.
What Thailand has in mind is an atmosphere that is conducive to a mediation that would pave the way for Tatmadaw and the National League for Democracy to have a dialogue. But that means the Myanmar military will first have to hold its fire and come up with some kind of a goodwill gesture.
“Someone needs to break the ice,” a senior official of the Thai Foreign Ministry said.
And Thailand believes that getting Min Aung Hlaing and his comrades in arms to take a step back requires not more pressure but more friendly persuasion.
That explains why Thailand – unlike some of its more vocal ASEAN colleagues — is taking a more cautious approach in dealing with the situation in Myanmar, avoiding rhetoric that would alienate the regime in Naypyidaw. Prime Minister Prayut has made known his desire to see peace and democracy return to Myanmar and for Thailand to engage with the new regime to help with the process.
“It’s important that the Myanmar military must not be made to look weak or that it has to give in under pressure,” said a senior official familiar with Thai communication with Naypyidaw.
Source: the Irrawaddy 13th March 2021.
And that is probably the key. Thailand’s help will be essential if the economy is to resume its previous growth path.
Just so that we don’t forget what is happening, here is today’s death list.
- 1 Pregnant woman died due to a gunshot wound in Sein Pan, Mandalay just for letting 20 protesters hide in her home.
- 19 died in Mandalay.
- 1 died in Pyay.
- 1 died in Chout, Magway.
Total 21 Today (13.3.2021).
Every casualty is increasing the resistance to the coup. Despite the fact that there is an 8 pm curfew people gathered at Hledan, Yangon in remembrance of all the casualties.
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