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The BFD warned, two months ago, of the voodoo economics behind the Climate Commission’s rosy analysis of economic damage to our community in pursuit of their utopian low-carbon dreams. It’s not that we’re economic geniuses here at The BFD, it’s just that the damned numbers don’t add up, and never have. We pointed out at the time the Climate Commission, using their own peculiar model, reduced all the input costs, but kept our economic output exactly the same as projected without their restrictive measures. That’s just not possible folks, without a huge boost in productivity: our little country’s Achilles heel.
The Climate Commission’s estimate of sustainable livestock numbers alone is enough to cause concern, a drop of 15%, let alone the obliteration of both steel and aluminium exports and the gas and oil industries among others, and the individual businesses calling it a day because they are not able to economically justify the conversion of their factories from fossil fuels to renewables.
One month ago we warned again, that time of the arrogance of the Climate Commission in refusing scrutiny of their ridiculous numbers, on very shaky pretences. Numerous industry bodies were calling for an independent analysis before the close of public submissions on the Climate Commission’s recommendations. They refused, and are still refusing. This is bloody nonsense: our whole economic future is based on Climate Commission modelling at (huge) variance to Treasury’s models, and those of the ‘Synthesis report’ produced by the Ministry of Environment.
The mainstream media are finally catching up, wakey-wakey, and are starting to ask hard questions, only to find the Climate Commission doubling down on arrogant: refusing to contemplate scrutiny of their numbers until, at the earliest, July! Three months after public submissions closed and a month after the Commission has passed its Final Budget and Advice to the government.
Their actions are beyond the pale and are indefensible. We are being led down the garden path by a blind zealot (literally). It’s unconscionable that government doesn’t call a halt to this entire process until the Climate Commission’s fairy-tale numbers are analysed, in full, and the ramifications sheeted home to New Zealanders.
Coming out to fight the Commission’s corner, is, as you would expect, another zealot, equally arrogant:
“Now a climate activist in his retirement, [Jim] Salinger worries the debate about models could derail public confidence in the process, right when cutting carbon is critical.”
You’re damned right, Jim. It will “derail public confidence” because that’s what happens when the public discovers a con job. Even more arrogant, if that’s possible, the famously sacked Salinger sledges the Climate Commission’s detractors:
“this [a simple request to shine light on the Climate Commission’s methodology] is a smokescreen – the last resort of those who oppose climate action, but can’t openly say so. Climate scientist Jim Salinger calls it “doubt-mongering”.
This is the left in full cry, no transparency, no accountability, ideological utopian thinking and disparagement of critics.
Climate Commissioner Rod Carr famously sloganized his ‘1% of GDP’ growth as the small price to pay for his Commission’s wonky world-view. Let’s put that in perspective: for the 30-years 1990-2020 New Zealand’s GDP growth has been below Carr’s ‘1%’ growth impediment, well below, averaging just 0.61% per annum increase in GDP over that three-decade period. Carr’s handbrake on the economy means negative growth (recession) for many years leading up to 2050, especially in the not-far-off mid-2030s when, under the Commission’s scenario, we could be contracting GDP by 3-4%. That is a serious reversal, not “doubt-mongering”.
It’s time the zealots were told to hold their place; they are but one single part of the equation, not the sum, and especially not when they won’t reveal what’s in the arithmetic soup they expect us to swallow.
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