From the beginning of the Australian election, Labor have consistently held the lead but failed to generate momentum. That is, there is no sense of “it’s time”, or indeed, any great enthusiasm for the party. In fact, Anthony Albanese’s campaign so far has been more a masterclass in gaffes, stumbles and screw-ups. Which probably explains why, as Labor doggedly held its lead, Albanese failed to make any ground on Scott Morrison in the preferred PM stakes.
This shouldn’t matter, but it does. Australia’s system is a parliamentary democracy, but election campaigns for the past 15 years (at least) have been increasingly presidential. Labor ran in 2007 with a simple slogan, “Kevin 07”. In 2022, its unspoken slogan is “Not Scott Morrison”.
But finally, this week, Labor are showing signs of a sluggish momentum.
Labor has stretched its lead over the Coalition in the wake of last week’s interest rate rise by the Reserve Bank, with Anthony Albanese closing the gap on Scott Morrison as the preferred prime minister […]
An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows popular support for Labor lifting a point to 39 per cent, with the Coalition falling a point to 35 per cent. This is the largest margin Labor has held over the Coalition since the start of the six-week election campaign.
As I wrote recently, perhaps Albanese should just stay in bed. The rise in his and the party’s fortunes coincided with the week that Albanese was sidelined with Covid. The interest rate rise is piffling enough, especially for voters old enough to remember the crippling rates of the 80s, but Labor capitalised on it anyway.
But Albanese’s return to campaigning has been marked by immediate new stumbles, including not being able to enumerate his own signature policy on the NDIS.
With 14% of voters still uncommitted, these are mistakes the opposition leader can’t afford to keep making.
[The poll] is unlikely to have reflected the full weight of voter reaction to Mr Albanese’s campaign stumble over the NDIS when on Thursday he failed to fully explain Labor’s policy. A third of the Newspoll survey was conducted prior to his latest gaffe.
But there is a dangerous softness in the poll numbers that surely has Labor strategists fretting and wondering whether to send Albo off to bed for another couple of weeks.
Despite the national numbers pointing to a Labor win, campaign strategists report a significant softness in the electorate, indicating the potential for voters to switch their vote, and the Liberal Party is still remaining optimistic about its chances in several key outer metropolitan electorates. It is also hopeful of winning back those Coalition voters who had parked their vote with conservative minor parties, and shoring up preference flows.
Much has been made of the handful of “teal independents” threatening to steal the “doctor’s wives” votes in blue-ribbon Coalition seats. But while these wealthy, mostly female, candidates backed by a shadowy cabal of climate activists grab the attention of the media elite, there’s a minor earthquake rumbling amongst blue-collar voters.
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is at 5 per cent, which is almost two points above its election result in 2019. Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party was also stable at 4 per cent and consistent with the level of support it achieved in 2019.
The Australian
Lost in the media reporting of the recent South Australian state landslide to Labor was the fact that One Nation won its first seat in what is traditionally most “progressive” state in Australia.
With just under a fortnight to go, the 2022 election still has plenty to throw at us.
