I’m starting to feel a bit like Phil Connors. No, I’m not waking up to Sonny and Cher every morning, thank god — but I am getting this weird feeling of deja vu. Is it 2010 again? Because we’ve got a gormless Labor PM again, following almost the same trajectory as the last one.
Except, of course, that Kevin Rudd had the sort of ballot-box and poll numbers that Anthony Albanese can only dream of. Rudd sailed into office with a primary vote a whole 10% higher than Albanese’s near-record-low 32%. In office, his approval rating peaked at 74%, to Albo’s 61%.
But the brutal laws of electoral history say that it’s all downhill from there. For decades, PMs have peaked approval in their first 100 days of office. The only uncertainty is whether the following slide is gradual or precipitous.
Rudd-the-most-popular-PM-ever was gone in just over 1,000 days. His Liberal successor, Tony Abbott, lasted just over 700. Will Albo go even faster? He certainly seems to be trying his darnedest. Having just delivered a deeply unpopular budget, Albo is following up with his own version of the Mining Super Tax.
Employers are threatening to run a multimillion-dollar campaign against Labor’s industrial relations changes unless the Albanese government backs down on its plans to expand multi-employer bargaining and give greater powers to the Fair Work Commission.
Which, of course, translates to a massive handover of power to Labor’s union powerbrokers.
“None of the commission members, with perhaps the exception of one, have ever run a business before, and employers just don’t want to outsource that key component of their business to the Fair Work Commission.”
That’s all right — none of the Albanese government have ever had a job outside the public sector, either. If they know one thing, it’s that there’s always plenty of other people’s money to go ‘round.
Australian Resources and Energy Employer Association chief executive Steve Knott said there was “white-hot anger” among mining, oil, and gas companies about the changes and these employers had “significant capacity to fund a substantial campaign”.
“From my discussions, I have no doubt that unless the government slows down their plans to rush their initial bill through parliament before year’s end and makes substantive changes, the broader employer community will be energised to run an anti-IR bill campaign that will dwarf the ACTU’s Your Rights at Work campaign,” Mr Knott said.
He said employers wanted the government at the very least to agree not to apply the multiemployer bargaining provisions across the resources and energy sector.
“We just think it’s barking mad,” he said. “If they carved our sector out then they can go and have a fight with other sectors, but our sector is not going to sit down and just allow this without a fight.
As Kevin Rudd learned the hard way, kicking the most powerful employers in Australia is a risky move. The Mining Resources Rent Tax was the issue more than any other that brought down Rudd. Rumblings that had started over Labor’s economic management turned into an earthquake, with a massive anti-government advertising campaign.
“It would be like the mining tax campaign but on steroids. That campaign cost about $20m.
“The industry has got a history of, when they’ve been poked, they will respond and there are enough corporate gorillas in the mining, oil and gas sector who have come to me and said this is not on.”
At the same time, Albanese is bleeding support from the cross-bench independents. Even, unlikely as it seems, some of the Teals.
“These employers will never agree to changes that put money in the hands of working people,” [ACTU president Michele O’Neil] said.
ACT senator David Pocock, whose vote is critical to getting the bill passed, has expressed “serious concerns” about the government’s bid to get all the changes legislated this year.
While some provisions such as the gender-equity provisions and improvements to the legal test that approves pay deals could be passed by December 1, Senator Pocock suggested more contentious parts of the bill such as the multi-employer bargaining provisions could be carved out and delayed until next year.
Crossbench senator Jacqui Lambie said she doubted “very, very much” that the bill would get passed before Christmas.
“Right now it seems to be suiting all the unions’ side of it,” Senator Lambie told Sky News.
The Australian
With a hugely unpopular budget already denting his popularity, and a growing sense that his government is an economic wrecker, the last thing Albanese would want is a humiliating defeat in the Senate, coupled with a well-funded advertising attack.
