With the Easter break over, the Australian federal election campaign is set to renew in earnest. But if Anthony Albanese was hoping for a campaign resurrection after the tribulations of last week, he has another thing coming.
As BFD readers may recall, Albanese fell flat on his face out of the starting box last week, when he flubbed a question on key economic indicators. While his handlers have — not entirely without justification — tried to write the gaffe off as a low journalistic tactic, the undeniable outcome is that Albanese was left looking clueless and flat-footed. That didn’t improve when he again stumbled on the question of asylum seekers — always a poisoned chalice for Labor.
But if Albanese thought spending the Easter break in presumably friendly territory at wealthy Green-Left epicentre, Byron Bay, he was quickly given a sharp correction.
Anthony Albanese faced a mixed reception on the main stage at the Byron Bay Bluesfest on Sunday night when the Opposition Leader was met by boos and cheers.
The rowdy crowd made it clear it did not want to think about politics, with sections booing loudly as it was told a federal election was coming and Mr Albanese walked on to a very mixed reception.
The Australian
It was clear that the crowd at the curiously-named “Bluesfest” (with headliners like Midnight Oil, Paul Kelly and Jimmy Barnes, it was just another “APIA Good Times” lineup — actual blues were non-existent) was more interested in hearing some warmed-over 80s has-beens than politics. The boos started in earnest the moment the MC mentioned the election, and didn’t let up during Albanese’s address. The only real cheer he got was when he introduced Jimmy Barnes and scurried off-stage.
But if Albanese lost the Bluesfest crowd the moment he walked onstage, he’s not doing much to keep the media pack on-side. Despite saying, “I’m not Scott Morrison, I don’t run away from press conferences,” Albanese cut short a press conference on the eve of the Easter break. Sky’s Jonathan Lea called out to Albo’s retreating back, “Why aren’t you taking all the questions like you’ve agreed to?”
But last week wasn’t without failures from Scott Morrison. Aside from the campaign comedy of copping a rogue basketball to the face during a presser at a gym, Morrison once again displayed the lack of culture-war conviction which has alienated so many of his conservative base. After a strong opening day where he reaffirmed his support for moves to ban “transgender women” from women’s sports, Morrison hastily backed away later in the week. He walked back his support for candidate Katherine Deves, after activists dug up old social media comments, where she called tranny activists “Nazis”, who were “mutilating and sterilising” children. (Suddenly, we’re not calling all and sundry “Nazis”, any more?)
All of this sounds like the usual circus of an election campaign — except that it’s a circus that may matter a great deal.
While polls supposedly show Labor set to stroll into government, a closer look gives plenty of reason to be more cautious.
Thanks to years of playing small target, Albanese went into the campaign as a more-or-less blank slate. So his first campaign week was crucial: you don’t get a second chance at a first impression, and Albanese’s first impression was very, very bad. The effect on the polls was immediate.
Albanese went into the campaign with a clear lead – and he has now lost that lead. The Labor primary vote has fallen by 4 percentage points while net approval for Albanese has slumped by 9 points and support for him as preferred prime minister has fallen by 7 points.
The Age
As others have pointed out, the media obsession with a nation-wide two-party-preferred poll can be powerfully deceptive. Elections are, after all, decided on a seat-by-seat basis, not a single national vote. More importantly, Labor’s apparent lead is notoriously “soft”: the margin of error (2.6%) is wider than Labor’s two-party-preferred lead (2%).
In the last two elections, Labor has won the opinion polls, but lost the election.
And with nearly a third of voters undecided, the campaign is crucial.
Unless Albanese can show a remarkable turnaround in his campaign skills, things are looking very grim for Labor. The next big test is the first leader’s debate this week. If Albanese fluffs that, it could well be fatal.
