You’ve got to hand it to Australia’s taxpayer-funded left-wing propaganda unit the ABC: when they fangirl, they really fangirl. They’re still insisting Dean Winter’s Labor party can claw their way into government.
Even after Tas Labor were belted back to their lowest-ever primary vote, in retaliation for leader Dean Winter’s horribly backfired stunt forced an unwanted early election. Even after Jeremy Rockliff was sworn back in as premier. Even after a former Labor leader threw his support behind the Liberals.
Despite all this, there goes the ABC, cheerleading relentlessly for the on-the-nose Tas Labor party, which has clearly learned nothing from the election.
A motion of no-confidence in Premier Jeremy Rockliff’s Liberal minority government, and confidence in a Labor minority government, will be moved on Tuesday.
This is exactly how we got into this mess. Training-wheels leader Dean Winter thought he was being ever-so-clever in moving a no-confidence motion against Premier Jeremy Rockliff. But it blew up in Winter’s face when Rockliff put the matter to the Tasmanian people at a snap election.
The motion will resolve weeks of uncertainty following a snap state election in which both major parties failed to secure a majority: the Liberals claiming 14 seats, Labor 10, and the Greens five. There are also five independents and a Shooters, Fishers and Farmers MP.
The result was exactly the same as before the election: the same seat counts, the same party backed as government and the same premier. The only thing that changed is that Labor’s primary vote slumped to its lowest ever.
Yet, here goes the ABC, fangirling for all its worth.
For many, Tuesday’s showdown, where Mr Rockliff’s grip on power will be tested on the floor of state parliament, reminds them of the first day of parliament in 1989, when Liberal Premier Robin Gray sought to continue his seven-year reign.
But after a marathon debate that raged until the next morning, he wound up sitting on the opposition benches.
The difference then was that Labor had struck a cosy deal with the Greens, with Bob Brown moving the no-confidence motion in return for a guarantee that the Greens would get a hand in government. But the cosiness quickly evaporated: after little more than a year, the deal collapsed. Less than a year later, at the subsequent election, Labor and the Greens both suffered massive swings and the Libs were back in power. In ’96, Labor offered only a loose ‘agreement’ for minority government, but the wipeout of the Greens at that election made it redundant.
A lasting consequence of the 1989 debacle is that, for the last 20 years, Tas Labor almost perforce have had to rule out governing in conjunction with the Greens again. Something even Dean Winter knows it would be political suicide to renege on.
The falling out is so bitter and ongoing that the Greens have announced that they will oppose a new no-confidence motion.
A big surprise of the election is David O’Byrne displaying some rare principle in politics.
Former Tasmanian Labor-leader-turned-independent MP David O’Byrne has thrown his support behind Premier Jeremy Rockliff in a move that could help the minority Liberal party maintain its hold on power.
It might be a bit of tense Chrissy Day at the O’Byrne house this year, given his sister Michelle is still a high-profile Labor MP.
But, unlike the ABC, O’Byrne has put aside his biases enough to concede that only one party has any meaningful chance of forming government.
“It’s not been an easy decision for me to make, given my long history with the Labor movement,” Mr O’Byrne said on Sunday.
He said he believed the Liberals were the only party capable of forming a workable government, and gaining confidence and supply across the chamber due to the vote count […]
Mr O’Byrne said he could not ignore the vote Tasmanians had returned.
“At the end of the day, my focus has been on who can form a stable majority government,” he said.
Even more surprising – and even more to his credit – O’Byrne isn’t horsetrading for personal promotion.
Mr O'Byrne said during discussions with Mr Rockliff, "roles were floated" but he felt accepting one would be inappropriate.
“I believe in the role of cabinet and caucuses to ensure that there is a level of support for each other in making some tough decisions, and we do have some tough decisions to make.
“I felt that as an independent member, I did not want to be involved in a transaction.”
If only his sister was so self-deprecating and less motivated by self-interest. Michelle O’Byrne, whose casting vote as former Tasmanian speaker precipitated the crisis, has just been handed a plum diplomatic post by Labor comrade Penny Wong.
