Table of Contents
Peter J. Morgan
Honorary Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Environomics (NZ) Trust
Politicised climate scientists say their models and their case for rapid, dangerous, manmade global warming are based on “sound science”. They are not. In a new learned paper the Argonauts – ten eminent experts – demonstrate irrefutably that climate scientists made a grave error of physics when borrowing feedback method from control theory, a branch of engineering physics outside their field, and misunderstood it. The models on which current climate action is based are thus grossly wrong. There is no “climate emergency”.
In 1984 James Hansen, a NASA climate scientist, published one of the earliest papers to embody the error. In 1988, on the basis of the error, he gave evidence to the US Congress, in which he predicted doom and gloom if mankind did not drastically reduce its emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), a trace greenhouse gas. He had imagined that a small direct warming caused by CO2 would trigger a large additional warming – a feedback response – chiefly by more water vapour, the dominant greenhouse gas, in the warmer air.
Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, who has published many peer-reviewed climate papers, wondered why the real world was warming at only a third of the rapid rate that climate scientists had originally predicted.
He gathered an international team of eminent professors, doctors and practitioners of climatology, physics, control theory and engineering, to hunt down a suspected systemic error. They became the Argonauts.
Sure enough, the Argonauts discovered that back in 1984 Hansen and his team of climate scientists had misunderstood feedback theory. They had applied it incorrectly, as have all other climate scientists since. They make two errors, one small, one large and fundamental. Until now, the control theorists from whom they had borrowed were unaware of how their branch of engineering physics had been misapplied.
Climate scientists’ small error:
They failed to take account of the fact that with no greenhouse gases in the air there would be no clouds to reflect solar radiation harmlessly back to space, like a mirror. The true emission temperature, which would prevail near the surface with no greenhouse gases in the air at the outset, would be about 12 degrees Celsius greater than they had thought. Accordingly, the true natural greenhouse effect was not 32 degrees but just under 20 degrees.
Climate scientists’ large and very significant error:
Astonishingly, they failed to take account of the fact that the Sun is shining and drives its own large feedback response. They had thought that all the 24 degrees’ preindustrial feedback response until 1850 came from feedback response to direct warming by noncondensing greenhouse gases (gases other than water vapour). However, nearly all that 24 degrees’ feedback response was triggered not by greenhouse gases but by the emission temperature from the Sun’s warmth. In effect, they added that large solar feedback response to, and miscounted it as part of, the small feedback response to greenhouse gases, consequently overstating that small feedback response by 3200% (i.e. by a factor of 33).
The Argonauts found that, of the true 19.92 Celsius degrees of natural greenhouse effect, 13.1 Celsius degrees was solar feedback response. They calculated preindustrial feedback response to the 6.1 Celsius degrees of direct warming by greenhouse gases as being 0.72 Celsius degrees. (13.1 + 16.1 + 0.72 = 19.92) Climate scientists’ 24-Celsius-degree feedback response was therefore 24 / 0.72 = 33 times (2 significant figures) what it should have been. That was why they ended up similarly overstating the feedback response to the direct industrial-era warming driven largely by anthropogenic CO2 emissions since 1850.
The effect of climate scientists’ overstatement was severe. The Argonauts, in a 72-page scientific paper now under peer review, found that, due to the error, the currently-predicted rate of manmade global warming is 3.2 times what it actually is. Global warming to 2100 will not be close to 4 Celsius degrees, as climate scientists imagine, but only 1.25 Celsius degrees. Such small, slow warming will be of overall benefit to mankind. Correcting climate scientists’ grave error of physics ends the climate “emergency”.
The Argonauts’ simplified, 12-page explanation of their welcome discovery is below. It is also available at climatescience.org.nz
Climate Error Guide 120520 by Juana Atkins on Scribd
At last, we know why there will be too little global warming to harm us. There is no climate “emergency”. There never was. Trillions of dollars have been wasted on destroying jobs and industries. Now we know that rather than spending many more trillions on futile attempts to reach the unattainable “Net-Zero Carbon”, we can focus on solving the world’s many real problems, such as chemical pollution, and the poverty worsened by global-warming mitigation policies. Happily, global warming is not a problem.
The Argonauts’ discovery of climatology’s errors exposes the crisis that never was. Correction of climatology’s errors ought to strip climate science of its vastly overrated importance and cut it down to size. Mankind has much more significant issues to be concerned about than slightly warmer weather worldwide, which will improve crop yields whilst continuing to shrink our planet’s deserts.
Nor can the increase in atmospheric CO2 acidify the oceans. The CO2 naturally occurring in the alkaline oceans is 50-70 times what is in the air. Consequently, there is no “ocean acidification crisis”.
Apart from all of the above, the warming effect of CO2 is logarithmic: that is, each new molecule that we return to the air from which it once came has less warming effect than each molecule already in the air.
I acknowledge with thanks the invaluable contribution of Christopher Monckton of Brenchley to the writing of this Open Letter. He gave freely of his valuable time to help to make it so readily understandable.
Government Ministers and officials in New Zealand and worldwide now face two choices: either to refute scientifically the carefully-verified science summarized here and in the 12-page ordinary person’s guide to the Argonauts’ research results or to accept that politicized climatologists’ dire over-predictions have been based on an elementary error of physics all along, appreciate that there is no “climate emergency”, and agree that current emissions abatement policies are scientifically, economically, and morally unjustifiable.
If Ministers and their climate scientists are unable to conclude that the Argonauts’ research is unsound and show why, they are duty-bound immediately to withdraw New Zealand from all climate agreements and all organisations – including the UN – promoting such agreements, rescind all legislation and taxes pertaining to climate change, remove all subsidies for renewable electricity and electric cars, cease to switch government vehicles to all-electric and halt the eradication of coal-burning for both electricity generation and process heat, and encourage industry to do likewise.
They are also duty-bound to reinstate the normal operations of the oil, gas and coal industries. They should not compound the economic damage from the pandemic with still further damage from extremely costly but futile CO2 emissions abatement. Also, they should immediately disband the office of Minister for Climate Change, and disband the Climate Change Commission.
Finally, clicking on this hyperlink: clintel.org/world-climate-declaration should give you cause to ponder why no climate scientist has ever been able to produce any verifiable physical evidence that mankind’s emissions of CO2 have caused an increase in the global mean temperature. If that didn’t give you pause to ponder, then this one should: cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-years-of-failed-eco-pocalyptic-predictions
Computer models whose output don’t match observed reality should be discredited forthwith!
The immortal words of Mark Twain have never been truer: “It’s not what you don’t know that gets you into trouble, it’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so!”
Sincerely
Peter J. Morgan
Honorary Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Environomics (NZ) Trust
The Argonauts
Christopher Monckton of Brenchley (monckton@mail.com) is a former adviser to Margaret Thatcher on science and policy at 10 Downing Street. He discovered climate scientists’ error and gathered the Argonauts to investigate it.
Dr Dietrich Jeschke is Professor of Control Theory at the Flensburg University of Applied Sciences. Dr Willie Soon is an award-winning astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.
Dr David Legates is Executive Director of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, Professor of Climatology at the University of Delaware and a former State Climatologist.
Dipl.-Ing. Michael Limburg is a control engineer and climate specialist at the Europäisches Institut für Klima und Energie. Alex Henney advises governments worldwide on the global electricity market and grid development. He conceived the idea for this plain man’s guide and wrote the first draft.
John Whitfield is a control engineer. He designed and built the test apparatus on which this research was verified. His work was later confirmed by a similar test apparatus at a government physical laboratory.
James Morrison is an environmental consultant who once sold wind turbines to Napa Valley wineries. Dr Tom Sheahen is a physicist and alumnus of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
William Rostron is an award-winning control engineer who designed and programmed the world-leading integrated control system at the Oconee Nuclear Facility, Seneca, South Carolina.
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