Afghanistan is not called “the graveyard of empires” for nothing. From the Persians and Greeks, to the British, Soviets and Americans, great powers have attempted to invade Afghanistan at their peril. At the very least, they’re sent packing with their tails between their legs. At worst, Afghan adventurism becomes just one more straw in the great Kerplunk! game of the Fall of Empires.
Still, there’s always one more hubristic emperor foolish enough to give it another go.
Take a number, Xi Xinping.
At least Dubya waited 20 years after the Soviets fled Afghanistan, before giving it the old college try. Xi is racing in before the dust of Biden’s panicked rout has even settled.
China is seeking a grand bargain from the Taliban: eliminate the groups Beijing says are stirring up trouble among its Muslim Uighurs in exchange for massive aid to rebuild Afghanistan.
But the reality was that Beijing mostly benefited while the US provided a buffer shielding China from direct exposure to Afghanistan. Now that Xi has jumped into the power vacuum, he is going to have to deal directly with the Taliban. Have fun with that.
Especially when the Taliban are increasingly under internal attack from even more radical Islamic groups, notably “ISIS-K”. The local offshoot of the Islamic State is determined to take advantage of the chaotic situation, to do its bit to establish the global caliphate.
China’s biggest fear is a spillover of radicalism into Xinjiang, which shares a narrow border with Afghanistan. The repression of the Uighur people has been labeled as genocide by the United States and many other western powers. Beijing wants the Taliban to cut ties with the East Turkistan Liberation Movement, which Beijing blames for attacks in Xinjiang (which the Uighurs call East Turkistan).
Many Uighurs, including some militants, have sought refuge in Afghanistan. But most independent observers believe their number and influence is exaggerated by Beijing, which uses a very wide definition of terrorism to justify its clampdown. The repression of the Uighurs is by any measure the most egregious assault on Muslims in the world today.
Spectator Australia
The Taliban might — might — be willing to overlook the fact that they are dealing with the globe’s worst persecutor of Muslims, while the cash flows in. But ISIS-K sure won’t.
China has already tried to get a BRI foothold in Afghanistan: for instance, buying a contract to develop the world’s second-largest copper mine, just south-east of Kabul. But the contract has stalled, because of “security concerns”. (Read: Islamic insurgents.) Even in largely stable neighbour Pakistan, nine Chinese engineers working on a dam project were killed in a bus explosion.
China has already deployed “private security contractors” to protect its BRI projects in Pakistan. There is, of course, little to no distinction between private and state in China, where every company with over 100 staff by law must have a CCP representative installed.
When — not if — Islamic radical attacks on any Chinese projects in Afghanistan begin, Beijing will almost certainly send “security contractors” in. And so, another imperial power will be sucked into the graveyard of empires.
The Chinese empire is already living on borrowed time: rapidly ageing, with a stark gender imbalance, and a population set for a catastrophic decline. Getting involved in Afghanistan will almost certainly merely hasten its demise.
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