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Summarised by Centrist
NZ Herald senior political correspondent Audrey Young has outlined two possible National-Labour “grand coalition” scenarios.
She argues the idea may be less unlikely as tensions with smaller coalition partners grow.
Young says a power share could reduce the so-called “tail-wagging-the-dog” problem under MMP and allow the two major parties to trade major compromises.
For instance, National accepts a limited capital gains tax, and Labour accepts a higher superannuation age.
In Young’s first scenario, Christopher Luxon remains Prime Minister and Chris Hipkins becomes Deputy Prime Minister, Foreign Affairs Minister and Defence Minister.
Labour’s Barbara Edmonds would take Finance, with Chris Bishop as associate. Labour would also take Health, Housing, Social Development, Children, Justice and Pay Equity. National would keep Education, Trade, Agriculture, Infrastructure, Transport, Police, Corrections, Energy, Resources and Immigration.
Young writes that five major portfolios would pair a minister from one party with an associate from the other: Finance, Education, Health, Foreign Affairs and Māori-Crown Relations. She says that would create “an incentive for agreement between both parties from the outset”.
In the second scenario, Hipkins becomes Prime Minister and Nicola Willis becomes Deputy Prime Minister, Foreign Affairs Minister and Defence Minister. Young assumes Luxon would resign rather than serve as Hipkins’ deputy. Simeon Brown would become Finance Minister, with Edmonds as Attorney-General, Revenue Minister and associate Finance Minister.
Editor’s note: Centrist explored this possibility several days ago in our article Will National rule out Labour?, published before Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown publicly floated the idea on Q+A with Jack Tame. The article argued that growing “grand coalition” talk may reflect unease within both major parties about the influence of smaller parties, including Winston Peters and NZ First on the centre-right, and raised the question of whether voters should push National to explicitly rule out Labour before the election.
Read more over at The NZ Herald
Image: Mark in New Zealand
