The BFD | Behind the Scenes

7th March 2021

Today I was fortunate enough to contact a couple of my sources in Myanmar who are well placed in the civil service. What I am going to comment on is uncorroborated and probably won’t appear in the MSM.

In the days leading up to the coup the hierarchy of the military were split on whether to proceed or not. It then appears that a misjudgement from Daw Aung San Suu Kyi (The Lady) resulted in General Min Aung Hlaing declaring a coup. She pushed her reforms that she was planning for the new Parliament to implement too hard, and he took her strong attitude as a personal insult to him and the Military and took a hard line.

Her position within the shared administration had been undermined since 2018 when the West, not understanding her position took a strong line against The Lady and openly condemned her. It is possible that the National governments of some Western countries went against the advice and intelligence supplied by their embassies in Yangon. This was a signal to the Military that her International standing had gone. That is slowly being rebuilt as the West realises its errors.

As leader of the Bureau of Special Operations he oversaw operations in north-eastern Myanmar, which in 2009 led to tens of thousands of ethnic minority refugees fleeing the eastern Shan province and the Kokang region, along the Chinese border. This caused problems for China then and as the CDM starts to hurt the economy and the Military become more and more violent and repressive, China is concerned that there will be a major influx of refugees, not just in Shan State, but also Kachin State in the far north. This is causing China to slowly and carefully reflect on its position.

They don’t want thousands of refugees on their borders and they certainly don’t want the disruption this will cause to the black-market supply of gems, jade, teak and narcotics into China. Too many Chinese officials are making fortunes from this trade to let it be damaged. The local EAOs (Ethnic Armed Organisations) may also start to resent Chinese support for the Military and refuse to co-operate in this trade.

The coup leaders hadn’t factored in the possibility of the CDM and the resulting widespread strikes and they are worried about the economy declining at a rate of knots. It is whispered that there are possibilities that the EAOs may take advantage of this situation and whilst the army is distracted by imposing themselves on all the main population centres, restart their military action in the conflict zones. As there has been reduced rebel activity during the Daw San Suu Kyi years they have been building up arms and reserves.

There have been informal communications between the many EAOs and the leadership (such as it is) of the street protests and if the Military start to get even more violent then the EAOs may extend their campaign from the states into the major metropolitan areas as well. This would use the foreign companies and the suppliers of FDIs into Myanmar. Further severe damage to the economy would ensue.

Meanwhile, the Military have intensified the crackdown.

YANGON — Ahead of Monday’s planned general strike, Myanmar’s military regime has intensified its crackdown, detaining political activists during nighttime raids and quelling rallies across the country.

Police and soldiers in large numbers appeared in central Yangon late on Saturday night, forced entry into homes and sometimes firing warning shots.

At least 10 people were detained, including National League for Democracy (NLD) members.

On Sunday in Yangon, the security forces tried to block protesters’ access to rally venues on the main roads after dispersing them with teargas and stun grenades.

Until Saturday, protesters have been retreating into side roads to avoid the security forces, only to return to the major roads when soldiers and police move on.

The security forces tried to clear some protest roadblocks and set fire to debris. Residents’ videos show brutal beatings during the detentions.

Source The Irrawaddy 7^th March 2021.

All to no avail, the demonstrators will be out in force.

Finally, in a move guaranteed to upset the monks and inflame the general population, troops have taken over commanding positions on religious sites, like the one below in Myeik.