Frankly
Anyone experienced in project management and risk management disciplines will be thinking the same as me. They will be stunned at Biden’s massive leadership failures in Afghanistan which are shaking the world. No wonder his poll rating has crashed so dramatically.
Anyone who knows anything about project and risk management can see that Biden does not. Assuming he had good strategic advice, he has cluelessly and arrogantly gone against it.
The first rule of project planning is to do it. The second is to get all stakeholders in the room and involved from the start. A simple example: Architects and builders do not build a house without the owners being involved: in the loop and in agreement.
Risk management is an essential component of project planning.
The first rule of risk management is to do it. This involves the identification and assessment of hazards and potential risks.
A simple example: Access to airport blocked off. What actions are needed to mitigate the risks and consequences.
Taken together, project planning and risk management are all about getting the right strategic outcomes. Looking at how Biden dealt with Afghanistan, there is no evidence of this whatsoever.
What makes this so perplexing, is that military leaders are well trained in strategy. It is too early to tell where the military was in all this, but seemingly Biden ignored or overrode their advice. Apparently, he overrode CIA advice. We hear stories that the military wanted to take some sort of affirmative action, but Biden won’t agree to it.
Why did Biden and his cohorts fail so miserably on both counts?
To put it mildly, there is no evidence of any useful thinking by Biden or, it would seem, by his political cohorts.
His failure to properly plan the evacuation project has created a catastrophe beyond belief not just for US citizens, but for thousands of Afghan families likely to be left behind to an ugly fate.
What of the many allies who have been ditched? Not to overlook the seriously damaged credibility and reputation of the US with its allies and on the world scene. It is nothing short of a monumental disaster that will reverberate through history.
It would be hard to conjure up such a mess; this withdrawal and evacuation might be the worst planned project in history. We don’t know all the ins and outs yet but some components stick out so clearly they cannot be missed.
No leader in his right mind would ship out the military and evacuate troops before shipping out all vulnerable people; his countrymen, friends and allies of his country, and compromised Afghans. No thinking person would move troops out before civilians.
No right-minded person would evacuate the critical cornerstone Bagram Air Base before the evacuation plan had been completed.
No right-minded person would simply evacuate the embassy leaving incriminating records.
No right-minded person would leave billions of dollars of equipment on the ground for the Taliban to simply say, ‘Thank you’ with a huge smile, and take over for unwelcome purposes.
No one in his right mind would go counter to the advice of his advisors and strategists.
No one in his right mind would advertise what he was planning to do.
In planning the project, any clued-up person would have worked through the five W’s and an H. Starting with What? & Why? Then following up with When? Where? Who? & How?
Any project risk management plan would start with these questions, or be very similar.
Just a few obvious questions will show how abysmally the project has been conceived: What is the plan? Seemingly, there wasn’t one. Certainly not one of any use. Or was it simply ignored!
- What are the logistics? All back to front.
- What could go wrong? Everything. And more!
- What will happen to people left behind? Persecution and carnage.
- How can we ensure safety and prevent carnage? No idea.
- How fast could the Taliban move? Very fast if they wanted to. A massive miscalculation.
- When might the Taliban aim to take over? Immediately. That is the whole reason for their existence.
- Who and what nations might benefit from the Taliban taking over? China, Pakistan, Iran, Russia (several ways, including access to rare earth metals).
Now to an ‘Is’ question: Is Biden’s action a case of treason?
If treason can be described as the offence of attempting by overt acts to overthrow the government of the state to which one owes allegiance, then do Biden’s acts at least border on treason? (Not to overlook those of his cohorts in manufacturing this massive disaster.) Is this all Biden’s doing, or who else is involved as an advisor or stakeholder?
Certainly not members of the G7. (UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, US.) They are furious. Not only that. Some G7 members are demanding Biden extend the evacuation date beyond 31 August and he is so far refusing.
While on the topic of treason, this isn’t Biden’s only act against the interests of his country. Think of ‘Biden’s border chaos’ and of his energy decisions that have made the country import-dependent, helping to increase petrol prices by nearly 50% in the few months since he came to office.
What does this tell us about Biden and his administration?
Seemingly that Biden is clueless. Allowing for his growing list of screw-ups, he is clueless. Or maybe he is simply the mouthpiece for several insiders with crazy agendas – it’s hard to tell.
Maybe he hates Trump so much that he will reverse anything Trump ever did irrespective of its value – as he already has! The answer seems to be obvious. ‘Yes!’
Hating people leads to mistakes. Like Trump or hate him, he was renowned for caution in bringing people back safely, as evidenced by his record.
Biden’s career has been a long record of being on the wrong side of good decisions on foreign affairs. In the current situation this lack of nous has been supplemented by a massive dose of arrogance.
And where is Kamala Harris in all this? She either hides from the limelight or is kept hidden to avoid embarrassment. Handed the Mexico border crisis to look after, she has certainly kept her distance from it and done nothing.
Biden’s communication performance on this debacle has been appalling. He has fronted up to speak only when he has no option but to do so. Then he bolts as fast as he can, like a rabbit on the run, refusing to take questions. Holding out that he has made all the right decisions and it is all a good thing. Masking the truth with false information. Making excuses and blaming others. And always starting his addresses by beginning with some other topic first, like infrastructure or Covid, to create a diversion.
Some commentators believe Biden will be removed. Next in line would be Harris, then Pelosi. All part of the same team. And while all this is happening, Pelosi has been more intent on taking advantage of the scene to bulldoze through a contentious $3.5 trillion bill.
Meanwhile, a former commander of British forces in Afghanistan said Biden should not be impeached but instead “should face a court-martial for surrendering…”, which makes sense.
Without something dramatic like a series of miracles, this will go down in history as one of the greatest debacles ever. It already has. It’s a huge embarrassment to the US and its many stunned citizens. And a massive insult to US allies.
Seemingly Biden had visions of boasting a big achievement on the 20th anniversary of 9/11. Pride and arrogance have failed him. But he might well still make a play of it anyway (if he hasn’t been stood down or court-martialed by then!).
What is the first lesson out of this debacle?
Politicians should never, or at least very rarely, manage projects unless they have a previous non-political career history of successfully doing so. As politicians, their experience is based on adversarial thinking and debating, political and ad hoc decisions, and on looking for opportunities to grandstand.
Project managers on the other hand need to think in terms of efficient and cost-effective straight-line problem-solving, with proper up-front planning and risk management.
Is this the only case of clueless people managing projects? Can you think of some closer to home?
Please share so others can discover The BFD.
