British politics is a brutal business at times. In this respect it differs somewhat from New Zealand where most politicians are amateurish and ‘small potatoes’. Attempts by NZ politicians to appear ‘big time’ are simply embarrassing. Examples include Bill Rowling’s regular falsetto declarations of “I’m in charge”, or Lange poncing about giving boring speeches, Key trying to shake hands with Ritchie McCaw, or Ardern on low rating late-night US television shows.
In the UK, by contrast, every government has a number of heavyweight figures who have their own power bases which cause Prime Ministers to spend a lot of time keeping everyone in ‘balance’. When things get out of kilter it’s simply a matter of time before it’s the PM who goes.
The most bizarre – and illogical – example of this was Harold Wilson. He used to be regularly criticised by the media, by experts, and often openly by members of his own cabinet. In response, Wilson seemed to pride himself on managing to outwit his opponents time and again (lasting until March 1976 was his sole achievement).
However, if you stand back and think about it for a moment, what Wilson was doing was wrong; everyone was saying so; history proved it (beyond any doubt). Only he disagreed which – logically – means Britain was being misgoverned for a very long time.
Yesterday two senior members of Boris Johnson’s cabinet resigned. As how what is known as the “Night Of The Long Knives” finished Harold Macmillan, or Lawson and Howe resigning finished Thatcher, or (arguably) Boris himself quitting finished Theresa May, this has a certain inevitability about it.
I was discussing Boris Johnson’s future with a friend back in December; saddened that two years after a stunning election victory the game (even then) appeared to be up and suggesting Boris ought to quit in the New Year (i.e. six months ago) rather than put himself through what is currently occurring.
My reasoning then, and now, is that he could trump everyone by choosing his successor if he walked away quietly.
There is nothing (constitutionally) to stop Boris from meeting with the Queen, resigning, and suggesting Dominic Raab be invited to take over. In response, she would not immediately make Raab Prime Minister but seek reassurance he could win a vote of confidence in the House of Commons. The Tory party being the Tory party it’s unlikely any other ‘ambitious’ politician would embarrass the Queen (and look foolish) by dissenting.
In short, it wouldn’t be a case of asking “Do you support Dominic Raab?” but rather “Would you oppose Dominic Raab if the Queen invited him to form a government?” (a subtle difference). Once that is confirmed Raab becomes PM.
On the other hand, if Boris remains in office, death by a thousand cuts and all that, he loses the ability to choose a successor and there’s the possibility someone (ahem) ‘unsuitable‘ could emerge as the next Prime Minister. But the chances of him surviving until Christmas – as anyone who has followed British political history will tell you – are zero.
I place the seeds of the current difficulties at the feet of the spineless fools who, a couple of decades ago, believed what their opponents said about them (much like our own National party), started handwringing, and started selecting candidates who would have been unthinkable in the days of Churchill – or even Thatcher. Completely oik-ish types with working class accents and no ‘values’. So Boris should get to work on a successor, quietly leave the stage, go make his fortune and watch his son grow up.
