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Remember when Brexit was going to be the end of Britain’s export trade? Of course, that was alongside the end of the entire British economy, Britain going to war with Europe, the deaths of 12,000 Britons and a hail of fire and brimstone raining down from Dundee to Lands End.
Possibly some of you have noticed that none of the dire predictions of the Remainers have come to pass. Britain is still intact and fire-and-brimstone free.
As for the most common Remainer prediction, the end of British trade with the EU, it turns out that Britain is easily the winner, even there. While Britain suffered a brief and minor drop in exports to Europe, it’s stopped importing EU goods in a very big way.
The first year of the UK’s post-Brexit trade agreement with the European Union saw a “major shock” with imports falling by 25% relative to those from elsewhere, research by academics has found.
But exports to the bloc avoided a sustained decline, with a smaller and only temporary drop relative to the rest of the world, the analysis found.
So, the EU really did need Britain far more than the other way ‘round.
The research centre says it found trade between the UK and EU held stable after the 2016 Brexit referendum until the end of 2020, and there was no evidence that uncertainty and anticipation effects led to a significant decline in relative trade in that period.
But a “substantial reorientation” occurred after the introduction of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) at the start of 2021, it said.
“Although it is surprising that imports were hit harder than exports during the first year of the TCA, it would be a mistake to conclude that exporters were unaffected.
“The number of export relationships with the EU fell sharply in 2021,” Rebecca Freeman, co-author of the report and associate of the CEP’s trade programme, said.
Analysis of changes in trade patterns for 1,200 products found a “sharp drop” in the number of trade relationships between UK exporters and EU importers, with “lower value relationships” hit particularly hard, according to the researchers.
Basically, Britain ceased to be a dumping ground for Europe’s over-priced tat.
“We estimate that the new TCA trade relationship led to a sudden and persistent 25% fall in relative UK imports from the EU,” the paper says.
It adds: “In contrast, we find a smaller and only temporary decline in relative UK exports to the EU, but nevertheless a large and sustained drop in the extensive margin of exports, driven by the exit of low-value relationships.”
Meanwhile, Britain is freed from the chains of Brussels’ suffocating regulations and, contrary to the witterings of then-president Barack Obama, very far from the back of the queue when it comes to striking new trade deals.
A Government spokesman said: “Through our Export Support Service, expanded export academies and a landmark export strategy, we are ensuring that businesses of all sizes have the support they need to trade effectively with Europe and seize new opportunities as we strike trade deals around the world.
Independent
Of the EU countries, only France has significantly outperformed Britain in GDP growth during the pandemic. Germany in particular has been hit hard. The EU zone as a whole only slightly nudged ahead of the UK. But the IMF’s latest forecasts suggest that Britain will surge ahead of France, as well as the rest of the Eurozone.
It looks like Britons made the right choice. No wonder the globalist elite were so terrified of Brexit.
