Daniel Andrews has ruled the state of Victoria (with as iron a fist and as unhinged a cult of personality as Mao) for ten years. But Chairman Dan’s reign may be coming to an end, with a Gang of Four gunning for his head.
The trigger for Andrews’ likely demise is the second millstone that China’s bestowed on Victoria (the first being Andrews’ enthusiastic rush to kowtow to Xi Xinping’s Belt and Road to Serfdom): the Wuhan pandemic. Andrews handling of the outbreak makes Jacinda Ardern look like a paragon of competence. The daily revelations from Victoria’s judicial inquiry into the hotel quarantine fiasco may prove too much even for Australia’s most left-wing state to handle.
Victorian Labor is debating for the first time in 10 years who should replace Daniel Andrews as leader, after the state’s tumultuous battle with the coronavirus pandemic.
Powerbrokers are openly discussing the Victorian Premier’s future, with expectations that he will quit the job well ahead of the next election — due in 2022 — to enable his successor to mount their campaign.
Mr Andrews is now unlikely to be given the opportunity to anoint his successor, as the broad Right and Left factions debate whether to elevate Transport Infrastructure Minister Jacinta Allan to the leadership.
To understand how power works in Australian Labor, especially in Victoria, means understanding the factions. Labor’s factions are quasi-official power blocs within the party, arrayed along ideological, union-affiliated and, increasingly, ethnic lines. There’s the Left, the Socialist Left, Centre Unity and Right factions, just to name a few. Factions determine who gets pre-selected, promoted (and axed) within the party.
Daniel Andrews is from the powerful Socialist Left faction. The Gang of Four lining up to replace him is split between two left-faction MPs, Transport Infrastructure Minister Jacinta Allan and Attorney-General Jill Hennessy, and two from the right, Jobs, Precincts and Regions Minister Matin Pakula and Deputy Premier James Merlino.
A recent decision by key MPs linked to the old National Union of Workers to remain in the Right caucus will be central to any leadership ballot.
Ms Allan will face significant pressure from sections of the Right and within the Socialist Left who are opposed to her being handed the job, opening up the possibility of Labor having to find a compromise candidate in the form of Attorney-General Jill Hennessy.
Both ministers are the frontrunners for the leadership and both are from the Left. The Right does not have an obvious successor to Mr Andrews despite being numerically dominant.
If the Right finally decides to contest the leadership, senior minister Martin Pakula would be a possible candidate.
Whoever takes the job, it looks certain that Andrews is choosing to jump before he’s pushed.
There is now open speculation about Mr Andrews’s future as leader, but senior party sources said there was still an intention to allow the Premier to decide the timing of his exit[…]
Multiple sources have said planning is under way for a potential resignation this year, although the first half of 2021 is considered the more likely scenario.
December 3 is the 10th anniversary of Mr Andrews’s election as Labor leader (he has been Premier for nearly six years), and the final report of the hotel quarantine inquiry is due in November[…]
The next election is due on November 26, 2022, but any new leader would need at least a year to establish their credibility.
Mr Andrews has ruled over the government with an iron fist, adopting an aggressive left social agenda. He has been brutal with his internal critics and has been the central figure in the government’s response to COVID-19.
Rumours are also suggesting that the factions will try and elevate a huggy-bunny Jacinda Ardern clone in order to try and soften the party’s image after a decade of Chairman Dan riding roughshod over everyone from volunteer firefighters to his own police force.
Don’t be surprised if the gluttons-for-punishment south of the Murray buy it, too.
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