The increased political divide in America that has escalated with the overturning of Roe vs Wade and with the gun control debate has had people asking: could America descend into another civil war?
There do appear to be some signs to indicate this as a possibility. A number of scenarios have been proposed. One is that America will find itself in the same situation as Colombia, with the divide between rural conservatives and urban liberals escalating to the point that both groups realise they cannot co-exist, especially when they begin to disagree over who is and isn’t a legitimate government. This will lead to both groups declaring independence from the state and then a territorial war ensuing between the two factions, with the suburbs becoming buffer zones. The ensuing chaos and collapse of law and order will allow criminals to take power and in some areas be the only ones to keep the peace.
There is another possibility: one that has already happened. That is the north-south divide that we saw in the American Civil War. Most people believe slavery to be the cause of that war, but it’s a little more complicated than that. If it were just about that, then there wouldn’t have been African-Americans fighting on the Confederate side. The reason many Southerners were concerned was what they perceived to be federal government overreach and the violation of the state sovereignty they were entitled to by the Constitution. The Founding Fathers were very particular when it came to separation between state and federal government. This was because the Thirteen Colonies and the other states joined the Union on the understanding that each state would have some degree of autonomy to practice their own ideas without interference from an overarching authority. In fact, the Founding Fathers knew that a functioning democracy could only work if the minorities had protections from majority rule. Even if Abraham Lincoln’s Republicans had a noble cause to stop slavery, the way to abolish it nationally would mean overriding state government, which was a violation of constitutional civil liberties and democratic rights, hence why the Southern States seceded from the Union.
It is also important to note that there was also a rural/urban divide between the north and south. The north had become mostly industrialised, which meant their economy mostly relied on manufacturing, mining and railways. The south was still agricultural, predominantly relying on crops including wheat, corn and, yes, cotton.
However, the difference in issues is more than just slavery. The Republicans and the Democrats are now diametrically opposed on just about every issue. Guns, abortion, environment, economy, crime and justice, immigration and transgenderism are just a few of those issues. And again we see a divide between the rural south and the urban north. However, the Republicans are also increasingly attracting workers from the Rust Belt who feel abandoned by the Democrats, along with Latinos and Asians whose values seem to align more with Republicans. Facing them will be the coastal elites in California and New York, the bankers and Wall Street and the Washington establishment.
A third possibility is something akin to the Syrian war. Both political parties are also facing internal divisions. Within the Democrats, the cultural liberals and moderates face an increasingly vocal woke brigade who no longer trust the Democrats to push for equality. In the Republicans, the military industrial complex is being edged out by the America First patriots. Therefore, it could turn into a multi-side war of different factions, each claiming to the legitimate defenders and representatives of the Constitution and legacy of the Founding Fathers. It might begin as another civil war between the left and right, but both groups would divide into factions as differences within the groups become apparent. I would envision new territories with factions centred on geography and demographics. It would turn into a territorial war and a resource war with the factions fighting for dominance of the country.
All this shows is the possible future that America faces if the political divide increases. America will still exist, but the States will just not be United.
