The water and energy demand of coming AI data centres in New Zealand is presently getting considerable attention.
The supply of cooling water for the centres is actually a distraction because it is just a matter of having suitable locations.
[…] The real issue is about energy.
The already-consented Datagrid AI data centre will by itself amount to more than four per cent of the country’s electricity use.
It will not take many such centres to have a major impact. A recent statement by Datagrid in the Otago Daily Times (July 31) identifies Southland and the South Island as having “huge potential in relation to being a data centre hub attracting international tenants”.
[…] However, those interested in setting up AI data centres will not build large and expensive power projects like major river dams or geothermal plants. Nor would they be willing to wait years before those projects are consented and completed.
This means that most of their power supply will come from new wind and solar farms.
Wind and solar provide intermittent generation. Electricity output flickers over a range of timescales like the proverbial candle in the wind.
So if Claude gets stuck trying to answer your question about whether Darth Vader would beat Superman in a fight, you know why (by the way, Claude says Superman would).
Intermittency can’t be offset by adding more intermittency. Any number of solar panels still generate no power at night. Any number of wind farms still generate minimal power when an anticyclone extends over the country.
[…] This limited flexibility means that firming power is still going to be needed for New Zealand AI data centres. They can’t simply ramp operations up and down in sync with fluctuating power supply.
There are presently only limited sources of green firming power. Grid batteries last only a few hours at full discharge. Geothermal power is baseload and can’t be ramped up when required. There are no pumped storage schemes in New Zealand yet. That leaves just firming from existing hydro generation.
Any hydro firming for AI data centres means that they must extract a component of their power from the existing New Zealand electricity system, regardless of any new wind or solar farms.
That is, AI data centres cannot use their own wind or solar power to isolate themselves from the New Zealand electricity system. Their firming requirements translate to some amount of decline in hydro lake levels.
And no doubt higher electricity prices.
The electricity question for AI data centres is therefore not where their power is coming from, but rather where their firming power is coming from.
[…] The question is whether the overall sum will end up positive or negative.
That is, an energy measure of the value (or lack of value) of AI data centres in New Zealand is whether their net effect is to create higher or lower hydro lake levels. This is particularly relevant for dry winters.
More likely the latter.
[…] Aside from the question of energy gains or losses, there is also the broader issue of the New Zealand environment.
Southland has been here before. The flow of the once-mighty Waiau River along the Fiordland margin has been massively reduced to enable Manapouri power for the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter. Was this environmental loss worth the national economic gain?
Do we really want to make long-term legal commitments to littering the landscape with windfarms and solar panels to maintain AI data centres set up under contracts that have no public scrutiny?
Here’s the kicker. Without sounding like a member of the Green Party, we don’t actually need data centres here. Data centres are commodities. Personally, I don’t care where the data centre for an AI model I’m using is, so long as I’m getting the best value and don’t have to wait too long for an answer. And speaking of which, the average user wouldn’t be able to tell if the data centre is in Auckland or in Perth.
My prediction is that data centres will become obsolete within the next five or ten years, give or take. There’s just too much incentive for them not to replaced with something with far less environmental impact.
