Today (Tuesday 21 April) we have 5 new cases of COVID-19. We have a total of 13 deaths, all older people with underlying health conditions. This is sad for their families, but in world terms, our numbers are very low. Whether we were never going to be badly affected, or in fact we have dodged a bullet, we will never know. But the fact is, as of yesterday, we still have effectively at least another 3 weeks of lockdown.
Yes, half a million people will go back to work next week, and the prime minister did point out that the extra week in lockdown is only 2 extra ‘business days’. But that is only true if you work a five day week. What about all those workers who are losing their livelihoods, who generally work 6 or 7 days, or who normally work weekends? That is a very narrow view from our prime minister.
What if you were earning $1200 per week and now you are down to the wage subsidy amount of $545? Both figures are before tax and Kiwisaver deductions. Yes, your employer is supposed to pay you 80% of your pre-lockdown salary, but only if they can afford it. Many employers simply cannot afford it.
What if you are a hairdresser whose landlord has very kindly given you a 3 month rent holiday, but you have now realised that you are going to spend at least 2 months in lockdown? Will you be able to pay the rent when it next falls due?
What if you run a cafe or restaurant? You now know your lockdown is going to be at least 7 weeks. It may be longer. We don’t know yet.
I heard that Marcus Lush was chastising callers last night who were complaining about the extra week of lockdown. I do not wish to be uncharitable, but let’s just say it is very easy for a radio host on full pay to sit on his backside and criticise those who are running out of money now. A bit more compassion for those who are doing it tough would have been appreciated, I am sure. Lots of people are already doing it tough.
Simon Bridges has also been heavily criticised for stating that he disagrees with the extension of lockdown. Whether you like him or not, and many on this site do not, Simon is right about this. National is a much bigger friend to business than Labour ever will be, and he is looking at the situation from an economic perspective. And so should we all be, because the economic crisis is going to be catastrophic.
The IMF estimates that the coming recession will be 30 times worse than the GFC. 30 times. I cannot even begin to picture how bad this is going to be. People are being told all over the place that they no longer have a job, but this really is just the start of the meltdown. At 30 times worse than the GFC, we will see failing banks, insurance companies, airlines, large corporations, big franchises. We are already watching media companies going to the wall. Yes, they may deserve it, but they employ people. Lots of people, who may all be out of work soon.
It will be easy for fast food outlets to gear up for Level 3 from next Tuesday, but spare a thought for the independent cafes and restaurants that rely on a dining-in experience. Some will try their best to tap into the contactless takeaway market. Many will never open again because of this.
Jacinda is kidding herself if she thinks that we can eliminate the virus, even though she admits she does not know what ‘eliminate’ means. The Spanish Flu started in 1918, had another wave in 1919 and yet another in 1920. Are we going to be in lockdown for 3 years?
Looking across the ditch, Australia never went into full lockdown but their results have been similar, if not better than ours. Both countries have 3 deaths per million of population, which is a very low number. But New Zealand has 300 cases per million, whereas Australia has only 59. Yet in Australia, schools remain open, takeaway services have been open throughout, [Editors Note: a reader says that from their understanding, this is not correct. They said that they have several friends who are teachers in Australia who informed them that schools in most states (possibly all) went to an online-only system during the lockdown.] most people are at work and personal services such as hairdressers have been operating without a break. Simon Bridges tried to ask why we are not doing the same thing, and was rubbished for it. But now I want to ask the same question. If Australia can avoid lockdown and still have few cases, then why can’t we?
Our biggest earner, tourism, is already on life support, and that will have a devastating effect on the economy on its own. We probably cannot avoid that, at least for a while. But do we really have to damage so many other industries, so many small businesses? I do not wish to make light of a single death from COVID-19, but unless we get the country back to work soon, the pandemic will look like a walk in the park compared to the economic cost. And that, I fear, will never justify the actions that our government feels they are right to be taking now.
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