As we count down to the big day in American – not to say global – politics, what are the polls saying? In signs that have clearly got Democrat strategists in a flap, Donald Trump is edging ahead of Kamala Harris in nearly every poll. Worse for Harris, in key battleground states, including the absolute must-win, is Pennsylvania. The margin, though, is still razor-thin. Still, 2016 polls had Hillary Clinton the clear favourite: the ‘shy Tory’ was in full effect.
Here’s the latest polling:
With barely a week to go until the 2024 presidential election, new poll averages from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill reveal former President Donald Trump holding a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in every key battleground state. The data, which includes averages from dozens of recent polls, shows Trump gaining ground in states critical to securing an Electoral College victory.
More particularly, the momentum in the last month or two has all been Trump’s way. Harris’ chances peaked when she was parachuted into the Democrat nomination – and then she opened her mouth and it all started to go downhill.
In Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Michigan and Pennsylvania, Trump is ahead by more or less narrow margins, from less than one per cent to nearly seven per cent. That Trump is edging ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan is remarkable in itself, but it’s Pennsylvania that’s the big story.
Pennsylvania Democratic Sen John Fetterman opened up about the state of the presidential race in his key battleground state and called former President Trump’s support there “astonishing” while predicting that Elon Musk’s endorsement is “going to really matter.”
For all the scorn heaped on him in his own election campaign, Fetterman has emerged as a surprisingly intelligent and moderate voice in the modern Democrat party. Fetterman is the closest the Dems have to a traditionally ‘Democrat’ politician. He’s seeing the signs. Literally.
“There’s a difference between not understanding, but also acknowledging that it exists,” Fetterman told the New York Times in an interview published Saturday morning when asked about enthusiasm for Trump in Pennsylvania. “And anybody who spends time driving around, and you can see the intensity. It’s astonishing.”
Fetterman continued, “I was doing an event in Indiana County. Very, very red. And there was a superstore of Trump stuff, and it was a hundred feet long. [There were] dozens of T-shirts and hats and bumper stickers and all kinds of, I mean, it’s like, Where does this all come from? It’s the kind of thing that has taken on its own life. And it’s like something very special exists there. And that doesn’t mean that I admire it. It’s just – it’s real.”
Friends in the US reported something similar in 2016. The polls had Hillary a dead cert, they said, but you never saw any Hillary signs on lawns, while Trump signs were everywhere.
“And now [Elon] Musk is joining him,” Fetterman said. “I mean, to a lot of people, that’s Tony Stark. That’s the world’s richest guy. And he’s obviously, and undeniably, a brilliant guy, and he’s saying, Hey, that’s my guy for president. That’s going to really matter […] Endorsements, they’re really not meaningful often, but this one is, I think,” Fetterman said. “That has me concerned.”
Pennsylvania is absolutely vital to Harris’ chances. As is Wisconsin.
Wisconsin is more critical to Harris’s pathway to victory than it is for Trump. If she forfeits Wisconsin, she needs to sweep Pennsylvania and Michigan while also picking off one of either Arizona, Georgia, or North Carolina to break the 270 threshold.
And if he loses Wisconsin, he still has several pathways, including the easiest, which entails winning Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, which would put him precisely at 270. In the scenario where Trump loses Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, he still has a very viable pathway by carrying Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and either Arizona or Nevada.
No wonder the Democrats’ shadow rulers are in an obvious panic.
A “frustrated” Michelle Obama attacked Donald Trump during her first campaign trail appearance for Kamala Harris, worrying that the US “will blow this opportunity to finally turn the page on the ugliness” by re-electing the former president.
What she really means, of course, is that her husband won’t get to rule from the shadows for another four years.
Other Dems seem to have accepted what’s coming.
New York Mayor Eric Adams defended Donald Trump Saturday against recent bombshell allegations by a former White House aide that the former president is a “fascist” who said positive things about Adolf Hitler and his Nazi generals.
Well might Adams try to patch things with the Trump campaign. In, of all places, ultra-blue New York, people camped overnight for his jam-packed Madison Square Garden rally.
Adams, to his credit, is finally saying what everyone but the mainstream media knows: cool it down.
“I have had those terms hurled at me,” Adams said at a press conference at police headquarters in Manhattan on security efforts for Trump’s Sunday rally at Madison Square Garden.
“I know what Hitler has done and I know what a fascist regime looks like. Trump has nothing to do with either,” he said, referring to reports former Trump Chief of Staff John Kelly said the former president told him “Hitler did some good things” and expressed admiration for the loyalty of his Nazi generals.
Earlier in the press conference, Adams had implored New Yorkers to “to take down the temperature.” Rather than causing “problems” in the city, he urged New Yorkers to participate in the democratic process by voting.
Perhaps reading the writing on the wall, Adams is preparing for the almost-certain violence from the left, if Trump wins.
The city, Adams vowed, has taken precautions to ensure the safety of everyone.
“No police department is better prepared, equipped and trained to handle these events than the NYPD,” Interim Police Commissioner Thomas Donlon said. Preparations have been in the works since September.
There will be drone teams, counterterrorism units, heavy weapons teams and a transit footprint, to name a few, with many working in tandem with federal officials at a joint operations center, Chief John Chell said.
If Trump wins, especially in New York, they’re gonna need it all, and more.
