Key Findings
A leaked document from within the Ministry of Health exposes deep connections between former Health Minister Dr Ayesha Verrall and academics at Otago University’s ASPIRE Aotearoa research centre, raising serious questions about conflicts of interest in tobacco policy.
Verrall, a former senior lecturer at Otago Wellington, fast-tracked world-first legislation mandating very low nicotine content (VLNC) cigarettes, a product that retains all the deadly chemicals in burned tobacco while stripping out nicotine, the non-harmful addictive element. This policy mirrored ASPIRE’s advocacy, funded by millions in taxpayer dollars, and would have handed a near-monopoly to 22nd Century Group, the only major producer of these genetically modified cigarettes.
The leak suggests Verrall’s drive to make New Zealand a global pioneer in banning conventional cigarettes unless they were VLNCs may have been motivated by headline-grabbing ambitions rather than pure public health concerns, especially when safer alternatives like vaping exist. Despite Verrall’s later push for a Tobacco Transparency Bill in 2025 to curb industry influence, her own policies appear to have favoured one Big Tobacco player, prompting scrutiny over why health advocates and allies in media and the ministry championed this approach over harm reduction options.
Timeline of Events
- 2003–2005: New Zealand ratifies the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), binding public entities like universities to protect policies from tobacco industry interference. (WHO FCTC)
- 2015–2018: Otago and Auckland researchers use 22nd Century Group’s VLNC cigarettes in studies, influencing ASPIRE’s push for mandated low nicotine. (VLNC study 2016).
- 2017: ASPIRE 2025 releases action plan advocating VLNC mandates. Verrall is a senior lecturer at Otago Wellington at this time. (ASPIRE plan)
- 2018: Verrall completes PhD at Otago and collaborates with ASPIRE contemporaries like Diana Sarfati. (Verrall profile)
- 2020: Verrall enters parliament as a Labour MP and is appointed associate health minister in November with the tobacco control portfolio. (Verrall background)
- April 2021: Ministry releases Smokefree 2025 Action Plan consultation, echoing ASPIRE’s VLNC proposals. (Action Plan launch)
- December 2021: Verrall announces Smokefree Action Plan, including VLNC mandates. (Plan announcement)
- November 2022: 22nd Century contacts ASPIRE academics via third party, leading to undisclosed meetings. (22nd Century NZ support)
- December 2022: Smokefree Environments and Regulated Products (Smoked Tobacco) Amendment Act passes, setting 0.8mg/g nicotine limit from April 2025. (Act details )
- January–March 2023: ASPIRE academics share research and meet with 22nd Century representatives.
- February 2024: Coalition government repeals VLNC and related measures. (Repeal bill)
- March 2024: ASPIRE’s Janet Hoek criticises government tobacco interactions. (Hoek concerns)
- May 2025: Verrall introduces Tobacco Transparency Bill and Hoek praises it as “long overdue”. (Bill launch)
- July 2024: Stuff/ThreeNews airs stories on ASH vaping links. BSA upholds complaints for breaches in March 2025. (BSA ruling)
- November 2025: New Zealand drops to 53rd in Global Tobacco Interference Index. ASPIRE hosts webinar criticising government. (Index briefing)
Nothing stinks quite like a politician with deep ties to a clique of academics pushing policies that smell of favouritism, especially when it involves Big Tobacco and millions of taxpayer dollars.
This latest leak from inside the Ministry of Health lays bare the uncomfortable connections between former Health Minister Dr Ayesha Verrall and the boffins at Otago University’s ASPIRE Aotearoa research centre. It paints a picture of a fast-tracked agenda that would have locked New Zealand into a world-first ban on conventional cigarettes, forcing smokers onto genetically modified very low nicotine content smokes produced by one American tobacco giant. And for what? To grab international headlines as the plucky little nation leading the charge against smoking or something more self-serving?
Either way, it leaves a bitter taste when you consider the hypocrisy and the sidelining of genuinely safer options.
Let us start with Verrall herself. Before she swapped the white coat for the corridors of power, she was embedded deep in the Otago ecosystem. A graduate of the Dunedin School of Medicine in 2004, she climbed the ranks to become a senior lecturer in infectious diseases at Otago’s Wellington campus, even serving on the Capital and Coast District Health Board. Her PhD in tuberculosis epidemiology, completed in 2018, put her shoulder-to-shoulder with the likes of Diana Sarfati, who later became Director-General of Health. This was no casual affiliation: Verrall was part of the furniture in a division that housed ASPIRE Aotearoa, the self-styled vanguard of tobacco control research. ASPIRE, co-directed by Professors Janet Hoek, Richard Edwards and Andrew Waa, has hoovered up over $15 million in Health Research Council funding since 2016 for studies that conveniently aligned with Verrall’s later policies.
Fast forward to 2020. Verrall rides the Labour wave into parliament and, just a month later, lands the Associate Health Minister gig with tobacco control in her portfolio. Coincidence? Or the perfect storm of old mates and shared ideologies? Within five months, in April 2021, the Ministry of Health drops a consultation paper that reads like an ASPIRE manifesto. Mandated nicotine reduction in all smoked tobacco products? Check. Drastic cuts to retailers? Check. It was all there, straight from the 2017 ASPIRE action plan that Verrall would have been well aware of during her Otago days. By December 2022, the Smokefree Environments and Regulated Products (Smoked Tobacco) Amendment Act is law, slapping a 0.8mg/g nicotine cap on cigarettes from April 2025. This was no incremental tweak: it was a radical overhaul designed to make regular cigs unsmokeable, pushing users towards quitting or alternatives.
But here is where it gets dodgy. The only company geared up to supply these VLNC cigarettes at scale is 22nd Century Group, a Nasdaq-listed tobacco outfit that manufactures combustibles and has been schmoozing academics for years. Their “Spectrum” VLNCs were used in New Zealand trials as far back as 2015, including ones involving ASPIRE folk. The leak details how, in November 2022, 22nd Century sidestepped official channels to contact Edwards via a third party, leading to email swaps, a pre-print paper share in January 2023 and meetings in December 2022 and March 2023. Discussions even covered distribution, with ASPIRE rejecting “legacy” tobacco companies as partners. Edwards called 22nd Century a “very different” tobacco company, despite FCTC rules classifying it as such. Meanwhile, Verrall’s legislation would have created a dream market for them, as no other firm has the patented tech ready.
Why would a health minister like Verrall hitch her wagon to this? VLNCs keep the tar, carcinogens and combustion toxins that cause cancer and heart disease, but yank out nicotine, which is addictive but not the killer. It is like removing the caffeine from coffee and claiming it is healthier while still serving it scalding hot. And genetically modified tobacco? That adds a whole new layer of irony for purists who rail against Big Tobacco. Safer paths exist: vaping, nicotine patches, gums: all delivering nicotine without burning anything. Studies show vaping has helped millions quit worldwide, yet Verrall and ASPIRE pushed VLNCs hard, with media allies amplifying the message. Remember those July 2024 Stuff and ThreeNews hits on ASH for alleged vaping ties? The Broadcasting Standards Authority hammered them in March 2025 for inaccuracy, imbalance and unfairness, suggesting a coordinated smear to sideline harm reduction advocates.
Verrall’s motivations scream ambition. New Zealand loves a ‘world first’, and this legislation was billed as just that: the pioneer in denicotinisation, smokefree generation bans and retailer caps. Verrall trumpeted it as transformative, inspiring nations globally. But was it about saving lives or scoring political points? The policy’s rapid rollout, mirroring ASPIRE’s playbook, suggests influence from her old Otago network. Hoek praised Verrall’s 2021 plan as “world-leading”, and ASPIRE welcomed her 2025 Tobacco Transparency Bill, which ironically aims to block tobacco lobbying while ignoring their own 22nd Century chats. The bill, launched in May 2025, demands disclosure of industry ties, yet the leak shows ASPIRE’s interactions went undeclared until an OIA request pried them out.
Taxpayers footed the bill for this echo chamber. HRC grants to ASPIRE topped $15 million by 2024, including $4.99 million for endgame research post-repeal and $1.17 million for youth vaping studies. Verrall, as minister, oversaw a system where her former colleagues shaped policy that benefitted a single foreign tobacco player. 22nd Century publicly cheered New Zealand’s moves and positioned themselves as the supplier. The repeal in February 2024 by the coalition government, citing costs and black markets, saved us from this monopoly, but not before lives were potentially put at risk by delaying harm reduction.
This leak demands answers. Did Verrall prioritise headlines over evidence? Why favour a Big Tobacco product over proven safer alternatives? And how deep do these Otago ties run in the ministry? Verrall now pushes transparency, but her record suggests selective blindness. New Zealanders deserve better than policies cooked up in academic silos, especially when they reek of hypocrisy and hidden agendas. Time for a proper probe before more smoke obscures the truth.
