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If there is a white flag handy to Chris Hipkins, he should start waving it. To say Winston has put Hipkins between a rock and a hard place would be a gross understatement. When asked if he would work with Labour, Winston’s reply was “We’re never going back there again.” In one sentence, Hipkins saw the one and only hope he had of forming a reliable government disappear. In one sentence the next election was decided. It brought to mind the Johnny Cash song “Flushed from the Bathroom of Your Heart”.
Hipkins shouldn’t be surprised. In fact, he ruled Winston out all by himself. The differences Winston has within the present coalition are minor compared to the major ones he’d have with Labour and the Greens. The coalition offers red meat compared to the vegetables across the House.
This time we should take Winston at his word. He could’ve added another sentence: “I’ve learned my lesson.” Being somewhat Trumpian in personality, an admission of that sort was most unlikely. The chances of getting an apology out of Winston or the Donald are as likely as hitting the jackpot in Lotto: most likely never going to happen. The differences for Winston Peters and Shane Jones between the two blocs are stark. We all remember the Shane Jones’ head in the hands moment when the tyrant announced her oil and gas ban. Once bitten, twice shy.
In the policy areas of energy, foreign affairs, education, housing, infrastructure, agriculture and defence, NZ First is much more aligned with National and ACT than the parties on the left. NZ First can have their disagreements with their partners but the coalition still holds together. This is based on mutual respect. An example is the current spat between Peters and Luxon over the India FTA. The media latch onto this with glee hoping it is the straw that will break the camel’s back. They will be disappointed.
Hipkins has dug his own grave. All that’s needed is the plaque commemorating his demise ‘Christopher Hipkins, leader of the Labour Party, voted from us, thankfully, on November 7th 2026.’ How the left will rise from the ashes of the 2026 election is yet to be determined and they are glued to an ideology that most people don’t identify with.
Labour would like us to believe that their sole stint in government (2020–2023) was a success, that the political tyranny they imposed was necessary and their economic policies of tax and spend were unavoidable. Furthermore, I think Hipkins would like us to believe he had nothing to do with it but we know better. This, along with Winston’s stated position plus the obvious unsuitability of his coalition partners, leaves Hipkins in a situation where winning an election is way beyond him. It is becoming a more and more unachievable goal.
The Greens have spent most of this election cycle divesting themselves of people whose behaviour was questionable in law-abiding terms and another person whose behaviour was completely unacceptable. Just to make sure we understood what a nutty lot they are, they decided to turn up in parliament wearing terrorist tea towels. They think it is preferable to live in the dark and cold rather than risk the life of a frog, a snail or a butterfly. Hipkins apparently goes along with this.
The Māori Party’s mentality of colonial demolition is all about control. Wanting their own parliament, legal system and Māori-run government departments. Think how that nonsense would pan out. They're nothing more than a bunch of activists trying to achieve the unachievable at the taxpayers’ expense. It would fall to Hipkins to control the wants and wishes of these individuals. The real Mad Hatter’s Tea Party come to life!
But this is all Hipkins has to work with. It would be the most unstable coalition in history. Every poll says he needs the activists to govern. His own incompetent lot are bad enough but add in the Greens and Māori Party and you have a recipe for unmitigated disaster. There is no way Hipkins could manage or control that lot. It would be a coalition looking for somewhere to fall apart. The Greens have more in common with the Māori Party than Labour and the two parties would gang up on him. He’d be toast.
Winston was Hipkins’ only hope for stability and now the NZ First leader has firmly laid that possibility to rest. It stands to reason that Shane Jones and the entire NZ First caucus would 100 per cent share that opinion. The gap has well and truly widened between NZ First and the left. They are now polar opposites.
Luxon, Seymour and Peters will bring home the bacon and the left will be left with one electorally fried chippie in the form of Christopher Hipkins. Unless the country is well and truly off its rocker, this election is done and dusted.
