What an unbelievable Newshub poll. After all the bad news the Government has had, particularly over the past few weeks and before, Tova O’Brien managed to report on a poll that was right up her alley. The only thing she failed to report in her orgasmic presentation was that pigs actually can fly.
This latest poll was not like previous polls because recently both Colmar Brunton (TV One) and Reid Research (Newshub) have changed their methodology.
Colmar Brunton no longer includes landlines. They now use a mix of telephone and online sampling. Fifty per cent of the sample is collected using randomly generated mobile numbers. The remaining fifty per cent they collect online – from New Zealanders who have signed up for market research studies. For mobiles they say the random nature of the calling, together with their strong response rates, gives them a robust sample. For their online sample, they put in place careful interviewing targets to ensure their sample is nationally representative. Weighting is then applied to the entire sample as a final check that their one thousand respondents are representative of eligible voters in New Zealand.
Reid Research contacts seventy per cent of their respondents by landline or mobile phone. The other thirty per cent are people who are sourced from one of several Online Research Company Panels. Quota sampling and weighting are done to ensure representative cross section by age, gender and geography. The sample coverage is national including rural, secondary urban and main urban centres. Weighting is based on Statistics New Zealand population counts.
In this week’s Newshub poll John Key registered 6.7 per cent popularity, higher than Judith Collins. This was commented on by Andrew Dickens on ZB on Monday afternoon. He emailed Reid Research for an answer as to how Key’s name appeared and was referred to Tova O’Brien who did not reply.
Mike Hosking did some digging and found out that Key’s name was given to the thirty per cent from the Panels, but not to the seventy per cent contacted by landline or mobile phone.
The question must be asked – how believable are these polls? Mike Hosking’s view is that they are not believable. He says the most accurate poll result is obtained by asking two simple questions: which party would you vote for and who is your preferred prime minister? Anything else, as Mike says, risks bias and skewing the poll to get the result you want.
This brings up the next question: who decides the content of the poll? Newshub is paying for the poll and so has every right to determine the questions asked. Knowing the predominantly left-wing bias in today’s media, that is where the problem arises.
The clue to who is in charge of the Newshub Poll is in Mrs Reid’s referral of Andrew Dickens’s request re the appearance of Key’s name to Tova O’Brien. This takes us right back to Tova’s orgasmic expostulations on HER latest poll. Had Key not been on the list it’s dollars to doughnuts that 6.7% would have gone to Judith Collins.
Other specific questions could be asked but if the two simple questions stated above were asked on the two main poll issues, the preferred Government and Prime Minister the polls would be much more believable. The chances of bias and skewing would be greatly reduced.
Tova O’Brien, you might have just been busted on a little bit of mischief-making.
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