If the National Party want to win big next year, they need look no further than the American midterm elections. There was supposed to be, according to the polls, a red wave with a substantial Republican majority in the House and a workable majority in the Senate. This turned out to be not so, with the exception of two races for governor, featuring Republicans Ron DeSantis of Florida and Greg Abbott of Texas. They ran on very right-wing policies they knew their voters were concerned about. Florida and Texas both suffer from extreme weather events but of the policies of concern –
CLIMATE CHANGE WAS NOT ONE OF THEM.
I have been following both men for some time. They leave you in no doubt as to where they stand on any given issue. They make their views abundantly clear and articulate them in a way that enthuses their voter base. There is no clinging to the centre ground: they are unashamedly what the woke media would like to label as far right. As one commenter on BFD Backchat so aptly put it: if you stand in the middle of the road you get knocked over.
They have both taken on President Biden and won. Migrants coming across the southern border or into Florida have been immediately transported to Democratic strongholds to be dealt with. Governor Abbott, when Biden refused to carry on building Trump’s wall, did so himself, earmarking State funds for the project. For the record Texas, is in the black to the tune of $27 billion despite the pandemic. DeSantis has made Florida such an attractive place to live, 300,000 people have fled there from Democratic-run states such as New York and California.
Two years ago DeSantis won Florida by 10,000 votes. This week his winning margin was 1,500,000. Abbott won a third term with a margin of around 900,000. These two gave a masterclass on how to execute a landslide victory. Not for them standing in the middle of the road trying to appeal to all and sundry. ‘Woke’ is a word that is not to be found in their dictionaries. It could be a French or Italian word as far as they’re concerned. They’re not interested in calling themselves underdogs. They’re winners!!
There are lessons here for National.
- Be brave enough to put forward policies your voter base wants.
- Articulate them strongly and enthusiastically.
- Don’t talk about yourself as the underdog.
- Cut out anything that has the slightest whiff of ‘wokeness’ about it.
- Get off the climate change bandwagon.
- Present National as a party of potential winners.
Next year is the ideal time to implement this type of strategy. A National/ACT coalition is looking more and more likely. At the moment I would say a National win will come off the back of a Labour loss. That is unacceptable. National need to win by producing a set of policies their voter base, both urban and rural, want. These must be articulated in a very direct, no nonsense and enthusiastic manner. Voters should be voting for National because they see the party understands their concerns and has the appropriate policies, not because it’s the best of a bad bunch.
All I hear from National in the upcoming by election is that they’re the underdog. Labour is saying the same, the first remotely honest thing they’ve said in five years. What is this, a race to the bottom? You go into a race to win. I know this is a strategy to try and maximise voter turnout but it is negative in its intent. With the current upswing in the polls there is every reason to have a positive message. ‘Vote National and join the winning team’ or ‘Vote National and ride the blue wave’.
In regard to climate change, I’m not suggesting it be ignored – good heavens, it’s been around since time immemorial – but it should not be presented as a major policy plank. It is not feasible to put forward policies that farmers will support on the one hand while going hell bent for leather on climate change on the other. Farmers must be left in no doubt that climate change policies will not be detrimental to their farming operations.
National already has the intention to repeal Three Waters, the Maori Health Authority and light rail, among others. They will set targets in key areas. They will prioritise roads over cycleways. They will cut wasteful spending. I believe, unlike some BFD commenters, that they will. They’ve made it very public both in the media and with roadside hoardings. Many will vote for them because of it. These are policies their voter base want but on their own are not enough.
Voters want something more besides the policies that will come nearer the election. The ‘something more’ is an energised National that has shaken off any signs of wokeness, a National that is enthusiastically standing on a platform that its voter base WANT to vote for. A party that has lost the ‘Labour lite’ tag.
A PARTY THAT IS UNASHAMEDLY OF THE RIGHT.
This is how DeSantis and Abbott presented themselves. DeSantis in his acceptance speech said, “Never surrender to the woke mob.” He spoke of not allowing indoctrination in schools; he spoke first and foremost of freedom. Throughout the pandemic he kept Florida pretty much open, including the schools. Abbott spoke of taking Biden on over his oil and gas exploration bans. These are things that their voters wanted.
National could do well to adopt similar electioneering strategies. They might find by doing so that a potential electoral landslide becomes a real one.
