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Simon O’Connor
Husband, step-father, and longtime student of philosophy and history. Also happen to be a former politician, including chairing New Zealand's Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Committee.
Well, I am the first to admit I got it wrong. I expected Biden to stay in the race. In saying this I didn’t think he was actually up to the job and have repeatedly, like others, noted his serious cognitive decline. However, that he had the near unilateral backing of thousands of Democratic delegates, a substantial war chest of money (which doesn’t simply transfer to the new candidate), and with so few days left to his Democratic Convention, I thought he would hold on. There was also the reality – that will now play out – that for him to step down leaves major questions to be answered and a party in disarray. Put simply it appeared to be his decision to stay or quit, and he and his team were unambiguous around his intention to stay.
Yet the extraordinary events of the last few hours show us that, in many ways, it was not fully his decision. For me this is illustrated by one very simple reality – there are no photos or videos of him signing his resignation letter. This may seem like a trifling thing but to me it is symbolically very significant in both a presidential and social media world. This is a very historically significant decision. Not since Lyndon B. Johnson has a president stood down from re-election and certainly not so close to an election. Yet for now, there is no visual record nor address to the nation.
What I think we are seeing is a small but influential group within the Democratic Party that have applied pressure on Biden to step aside. We all know what the key influencers within the Democratic Party think – be this senior elected members, the likes of the Clinton family and Obama or celebrity donors like George Clooney. But these are not the ordinary Democratic voters. I don’t think we can escape the fact that up until a few hours ago, the man who held all the cards to become the official Democratic nominee for president (and potentially a second term as president) chose to step aside wholly, or in part, because of the pressure from a few.
Naturally the Democrats will be desperate to form a face of unity. This makes complete sense. The Party hierarchy is likely to rally around Kamala Harris and we are already seeing the work to make this happen. But it is not without its risks including grassroots Democratic voters and donors who are not keen on a manufactured solution to what has been a slow-evolving problem.
It is hard to tell whether the Republicans see this as a victory or a concern. It is probably a mixture of both. That Biden could step down and Harris take over will have been anticipated. We no longer have a battle between two old foes (in both senses of the word!) but a somewhat new face in Kamala Harris. As we have seen here in New Zealand, sometimes a change of leadership leads to disintegration whereas other times it leads to new impetus and energy. Time will tell as too will election day in November!
The heir presumptive, Kamala Harris, comes with significant baggage alongside strengths. Her main claim of competency will be based around identity politics. This will likely solidify – and perhaps galvanise – the existing Democratic base who had begun to despair. It is unlikely to draw in new voters but this may not matter; if she gets Democratic voters out in key swing states, then it could make all the difference.
However, there are several significant weaknesses. The most critical is that she knew full well the situation of Joe Biden’s health and has worked tirelessly to cover it up along with others in the administration and mainstream media. Put another way, she has led the gaslighting and many will not forget this.
There is also the very pertinent question of how President Biden can remove himself from the ticket yet remain as President. While this query now takes on partisan qualities, it is a valid question. It is one that the Democratic Party and its new presidential candidate are now going to have to answer publicly.
There is also the question of what Democratic voters on the ground think and do. As I write, the same power brokers that have encouraged Biden to leave are coalescing around Harris. They are a minority; small in number but powerful. But they are not the tens of thousands of hard workers on the ground who up to a few hours ago were working for Biden. These people are likely to fall into line but there could well be a number who feel, rightly, disenfranchised from a process to select their candidate. Whether Democrat or Republican, those joining political parties believe in the value of democracy and democratic processes. What is unfolding is not.
This article was originally published on the author’s Substack.
