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Summarised by Centrist
The IMF says the war in the Middle East has “halted” the global growth momentum that had been building into 2026, warning that disruption to the Strait of Hormuz and damage to key energy facilities raise “the prospect of a major energy crisis” if the conflict continues.
Its reference forecast now puts global growth at 3.1 per cent this year, with headline inflation rising to 4.4 per cent.
The IMF says the damage would come through three main channels. Higher commodity prices are described as a “textbook negative supply shock”, lifting costs and eroding purchasing power. It also warns of possible “wage price spirals” if firms and workers try to recover losses, along with a broader market repricing that could mean “much lower asset valuations, higher risk premia, more capital flight, and dollar appreciation”.
In New Zealand, MBIE’s latest fuel stocks update said this was the second consecutive drop in total fuel stock. It also revealed that one shipment had been delayed in Singapore. Officials said shipping delays were likely to become more common because more vessels are now relying on Singapore as a loading hub, creating “congestion and delays”.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has tried to calm fears, claiming New Zealand has “no risk of disruption to our future fuel supply” and confirmed orders through to the end of May, with planned orders into June. But he also conceded that “the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, so the risk to New Zealand’s fuel security is elevated”.
In-country stocks were sitting at about 25 days of petrol, roughly 21 days of diesel, and about 21 days of jet fuel. Labour leader Chris Hipkins called the diesel figure “most alarming”, saying there was now less than three weeks of supply in the country.
