It’s increasingly said that we stand at the most dangerous junction of international affairs since WWII. Apparently no one remembers that the Cuban Missile Crisis was a thing.
But WWII was not exactly a single, global war. The Axis powers of Germany and Japan were barely connected, either diplomatically or strategically. While sharing some common enemies (Britain, Russia and, later, the USA), Hitler and Tojo largely ignored each other and rarely co-ordinated strategy. Indeed, Japan invaded Manchuria, then nominally Chinese territory, nearly a decade before Hitler’s invasion of Poland.
Many people have explicitly painted Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a curtain-raiser for a wider war, rather than a continuation of the power-vacuum conflicts following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. If so, though, what other flashpoints might point to a truly global conflict? Some have pointed to China’s increasing aggression toward Taiwan, which it openly aims to acquire, by force if necessary.
Meanwhile, another flashpoint has simmered since the end of WWI: India-Pakistan. After winning independence from a war-exhausted Britain in 1947, India immediately broke into two hostile factions, because Hindus and Muslims simply couldn’t bear sharing the same country. So, Pakistan was partitioned from India, causing millions of deaths – and leaving the status of the Kashmir unresolved. Currently shared among India, Pakistan and China, the region has remained a flashpoint especially between India and Pakistan.
A terror attack in Pahalgam, in India-administered Kashmir, threatens to bring the two nuclear-armed nations into open war.
India on Wednesday shut its airspace to all aircraft registered, operated or leased by Pakistan amid escalating tensions after the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack, India Today reported.
A NOTAM, or a Notice to Airmen, has been issued banning Pakistani aircraft from using the Indian airspace, PTI quoted unidentified officials as saying. A NOTAM is a notification system used in aviation to communicate information about changes or hazards to the National Airspace System.
The closure of the airspace will be in effect from April 30 to May 23, according to India Today.
This comes a week after Pakistan banned Indian carriers from using its airspace on April 24.
In addition, Pakistan’s national carrier on Wednesday cancelled all flights to and from Gilgit, Skardu and other northern areas in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir due to security reasons, PTI quoted local media reports as saying.
Will it be limited to merely diplomatic hostilities? Or is the shooting about to start? Some of the shooting already has. But then, exchanges of gunfire are almost a regular ritual along the Line of Control.
The Pakistan Army on Friday opened small arms fire at some locations along the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir, resulting in the Indian military retaliating, ANI reported.
No casualties were reported in the exchange of fire, The Indian Express reported. Details of the incident were not immediately clear.
A formal ceasefire agreement has been in place since 2021 and has largely held. India has accused Pakistan of sporadic violations between 2022 and 2024.
Some are beginning to worry that India is tooling up for retaliation.
After taking diplomatic stance against Pakistan like closing the Attari border, suspending the Indus Waters Treaty and degrading diplomatic ties, the Indian government seems to be planning something concrete in terms of military action. In an interview with WION, Former General Officer Commanding-in-Chief of Northern Command, Lt General (retd) DS Hooda said India is “contemplating some military action.”
“From the meeting yesterday between Prime Minister Modi and the service chiefs it is apparent they are contemplating some military action. I don’t know what form and shape it will take but the fact that the service chief haves been told to make some plans will get political approval,” said Hooda.
Even more alarmingly, Indian PM Narendra Modi seems to be rattling the sabres himself.
In a meeting attended by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, NSA Ajit Doval, and the chiefs of the Army, Navy and Air Force, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the Indian armed forces have “complete operational freedom” in relation to the Pahalgam attack.
Notably, just after the meeting the National Security Advisory Board (NSAB) was revamped. Former Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) chief Alok Joshi was made the new chairman.
Six more members, including former Western Air Commander Air Marshal PM Sinha, former Southern Army Commander Lt General AK Singh, and Rear Admiral Monty Khanna from the military services have also been inducted into the board. The remaining members are Rajiv Ranjan Verma and Manmohan Singh, both retired IPS officers and former Indian Foreign Service officer B Venkatesh Varma.
What ramifications the rest of us can expect from any putative Indo-Pakistani war are anyone’s guess. But, with years of record mass-migration creating a huge subcontinental diaspora in Australia, the potential for such a conflict to spill into local ethnic hostilities are all-too worrying.
