8th April 2021
The Irrawaddy spoke to Scot Marciel, who served as US ambassador to Myanmar from 2016-20, about the unfolding crisis in the country and how the international community and regional powers can help stop the regime’s violence against the Myanmar people.
Intellectuals are leaving, civil servants are being arrested, politicians are being detained, and activists are fleeing the country. Not only that, businesspeople are concerned about the future. How can ASEAN members, or China, Japan, Singapore, or anyone else, hope to do business in the country?
I think it’s very hard trying to do any kind of legitimate long-term business. Myanmar has to look extremely unattractive right now just from a pure business point of view. So there may be money flowing in, but there is a lot of money flowing out of the country. And again, this contributes to the country’s downward spiral; obviously it’s creating great suffering in the country. But [it also creates] great risk for the entire region. And that is why this can’t be just looked at by the international community as business as usual: “Oh, too bad, there was a coup.”
This is much more than a coup, this is a takeover by a military that has no support, no legitimacy and a history of terrible governance. And it is opposed by virtually the entire country. It is important for the policy makers in the country and around the world not to see this as just “Oh this is just another coup.” It is much more than that.
In addition to Myanmar, you served as ambassador to Indonesia. How can Western powers including the US and other powers in the region put pressure on ASEAN, which is not doing anything?
It’s not about putting pressure on ASEAN. I am a big supporter of ASEAN. I think it has played a very important role for many years even though, in a situation like this, it has not been able to do much. I think ASEAN can play a role in two ways.
One—already seen in the effort by the Indonesian foreign minister and others—is trying to establish channels of communication and push for an end to the violence and some kind of dialog that could lead to a way out of this. I think what ASEAN has in its so-called “ASEAN Centrality” is the ability to convene and lead in that sense. It doesn’t have to always lead by dominating or coming up with ideas. But at ASEAN’s upcoming summit, if they want to take the lead, I think certainly the US and many other countries are more than willing and interested in working with and trying to support an initiative to try and improve the situation in Myanmar. But it is really important that it has to be an initiative that takes into account the fact that the overwhelming percentage of Myanmar people will not accept this coup or the military role.
Let’s talk about ASEAN and the US. You cannot speak for the Biden administration, but what can the US do to work with ASEAN? Previously, you tweeted about “not dealing with the Tatmadaw”. Can you elaborate on that? How can the US work with regional partners?
There is an important distinction here. Some of my friends in Southeast Asia/ASEAN have talked about the need to keep open channels of communication, including to the Tatmadaw. That’s reasonable. It is always useful to have channels of communication. I think it is a different thing to deal with them as a legitimate government or to give them legitimacy by dealing with them as an accepted government. So there are ways this can be done, that allow communication without conferring legitimacy.
I believe there are a lot of conversations between people at the State Department and elsewhere in Washington and Southeast Asia about this situation. There is ongoing dialog. And I think it is really important not to see this as a US vs. China issue. I do not think it is. We are not looking at it as, “Oh what about China?” We are looking at it as, “How can we help the people of Myanmar?” So I do not think it has to be part of this big power rivalry.
There is an opportunity for different parties to try to work together in support of the people of Myanmar. And I hope ASEAN can play an important role, just as it did in helping the international community and Myanmar after Cyclone Nargis. ASEAN can create entry points for the international community to try to work together in support of—again, I have to stress “in support of”—the Myanmar people. This is not about coming up with some deal behind the backs of Myanmar people, which would be totally unacceptable.
You have mentioned that this is not US vs. China and not about the US-China rivalry. But we saw a lot of anti-China protests inside the country, making threats against Chinese businesses and the Chinese natural gas pipeline. At the same time, do you think China can work with the US on Myanmar or for the people of Myanmar?
I do not know, I just don’t know. But I think we should have conversations. As I said, I can’t be sure and I can’t speak for the Chinese government, but I can’t imagine that they are happy with the current situation. There may not be a lot of overlapping interests, but there may be some if we all try to work in support of Myanmar people. Not only because we care about them and democracy, but because this is the best way to get to long term peace and stability.
I will just add that I do not want to see anti-Chinese sentiments in Myanmar. There are a lot of ethnic-Chinese people in Myanmar, I do not want to see divisions in the country. Hopefully the people will stay focused on the responsible party for the issue and that is the Tatmadaw. I think it is important not to lose focus on that.
We shouldn’t forget Japan, which is a key player in Myanmar, as one of the largest donors and investors, and generally well received inside the country. When you were ambassador you saw a lot of Japanese investment coming in and observed Tokyo’s influence both with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s government as well as with the military.
Japan is a very important player and I think it has been a very constructive player. It’s taken a pretty firm position since the coup. Again, I may be too optimistic but I think a lot of countries in the region and the US all have an interest in Myanmar getting out of this terrible situation, ending the military violence against its own people, and finding some way to support a process that allows the people to choose their own government. I don’t think there are too many governments who are happy with the current situation.
If governments recognize that the continuation of the junta is going to lead to more violence and more instability, that should allow many of us to find ways to work together. At least I hope so. Certainly Japan has a very important role and I think it can be a very positive role.
Should Japan stop aid and investment in Myanmar?
I can’t tell you what Japan should do. My view in general is that, if governments are able to provide assistance in helping people and communities but not the Tatmadaw/junta, then I would say that should not be stopped. Investment, that’s a really difficult situation. Again investments … that benefit the junta—absolutely not. But private companies that are giving people jobs? It is a really difficult situation to be honest. The bottom line is you are not going to get too much investment right now as long as this continues.
Source the Irrawaddy 8th April 2021
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