Is It Knives Out for Albo?

When news broke that Australian PM Anthony Albanese has bought a $4.3m luxury beachside mansion, the opposition was quick to label it his upcoming retirement home. Peter Dutton congratulated him, suggesting that Albanese was ‘obviously planning for the next stage of life post-politics’.

Which might come even sooner than expected. If voters don’t get to chuck him out of office some time next year, it may be because his colleagues have already done the job for him. Like Malcolm Turnbull before him, Albanese unwisely put a political noose around his own neck. Turnbull cited losing 30 Newspolls in a row as justification for knifing Tony Abbott – foolishly cocking the trigger for when he duly lost 30 Newspolls in a row.

Albanese did the same when he bragged that he’d never lost a Newspoll. Which is exactly what happened the same week he bought his retirement pad.

In a move that left his own MPs stunned by their leaders’ lack of self awareness and political nous, Albanese has abandoned his “log cabin” public housing upbringing for a new oceanfront persona.

Albanese, who qualifies for the outrageously generous pension scheme after almost 30 years as a career politician, has spooked Labor MPs worried about the government’s standing and about winning their seats.

The coalition’s lead is marginal, to be sure, but given the inexorable trend of the polls over the last year (especially after the humiliating defeat of the Voice referendum), ALP backroom powerbrokers will be getting nervous. Next year’s election is shaping up to be Albanese’s last.

If he’s lucky enough to make it to then.

Still, it’s all just whispers in the shadows, for now.

While it’s unlikely rivals would move to oust him even if Labor remains neck and neck with the Coalition heading towards the election, Albanese’s political capital has rapidly eroded since his failed Indigenous voice referendum.

Kevin Rudd’s leadership rule changes, which exist because of the former prime minister’s bitterness at his own removal by Julia Gillard, make for a less democratic process as future spills will likely involve preordained successors to avoid ugly campaigns.

Albanese’s cabinet room is full of ambitious players who view themselves as next in line.

One obvious name is treasurer Jim Chalmers. Ambitious Labor treasurers have brought down PMs much more popular and electable than Albanese, before.

In contrast to other members of Albanese’s inner circle of power, Chalmers doesn’t have a close relationship with his leader.

He scored a major internal win last summer after Albanese backed down and green-lit the breaking of an election promise in overhauling stage three tax cuts amid plunging support following the referendum and immigration scandals.

Chalmers is also allying himself with the far-left faction of the ALP, and Labor’s bitterest rivals for the left vote, the Greens, on negative gearing. Changes that Albanese has repeatedly ruled out. But, with Albanese going over to the side of the ‘bastard landlord class’, the ALP feral left wing is arcing up – in the shadows, at least for now.

Labor MPs are pushing for negative gearing changes to be put on the table in the wake of revelations Anthony Albanese purchased a $4.3m beachside home, threatening a pre-election schism between the Prime Minister and Jim Chalmers over housing tax policies.

Amid internal debate over the effectiveness of Labor’s housing election policies and growing appetite for a clampdown on property tax concessions, Treasury has modelled a range of tightened rules around negative gearing for the government to consider.

While the Prime Minister has made clear in recent weeks that he is not contemplating adding negative gearing and capital gains tax overhauls to Labor’s housing election manifesto, Dr Chalmers’ ­department is working on options that would help counter the Greens’ housing scare campaign.

Even if it means hurting a great many Labor MPs who are property investors.

Government sources told the Australian negative gearing modelling conducted by Treasury ­examined scenarios focused on the number of homes owned and property values, potentially up to $1.5m. It is understood options ­include capping access to negative gearing at two properties per person and grandfathering existing arrangements.

The real story here is just how terrified Labor is of the Greens. Scared enough that they might consider Albanese’s leadership mere collateral damage.