Table of Contents
Summarised by Centrist
Christopher Luxon’s expected return to Waitangi framed as a cautious recalibration after last year’s absence.
Luxon is “expected to return to Waitangi next week”, with the Iwi Chairs Forum anticipating his attendance in the days leading up to February 6.
That marks a clear change from 2025, when Luxon opted out entirely. At the time, he said he wanted to “go around the country” and visit other Treaty signing locations.
RNZ notes “the heat has gone somewhat out of the Treaty debate following the end of the Treaty Principles Bill”. Politically speaking, this means the risk profile has changed.
Luxon also referenced the “positive reception” he received at Rātana – traditionally seen as a prerunner to Waitangi. Although he ultimately did not attend Rātana this year due to severe weather, the reception he described was later “supported by the opposition and in speeches from the hau kāinga (the local hosts)”.
Some say that support suggests a softer posture from Māori leadership than in past years when prime ministers were heckled, denied speaking rights, or physically jostled.
Helen Clark and John Key both stopped attending Waitangi after “falling out of favour”. Luxon’s decision last year fit that historical pattern. His return this year signals that the calculation has flipped.
A recent RNZ–Reid Research survey found 62 per cent of respondents think it is “very or somewhat important” that the Prime Minister is at Waitangi on the national day. In an election year, absence now carries more political cost than presence.
Ngāi Tahu is taking the “unusual step” of heading to Waitangi this year, removing Luxon’s previous option of marking the day elsewhere.
Image: Dirk Pons
