To dumb hammers, all things look like nails. When Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation last weekend, a bunch of dim bulbs on the online right triumphantly announced that it was because of his ‘mass immigration’ policies, which only goes to show how little any of them actually know about Japanese politics.
Sure, there were protests in Osaka recently, against the announcement of a so-called ‘African Hometown Initiative’ plan – but about all these have to do with Ishiba’s resignation is that they happened in Japan just before his resignation announcement.
In fact, apart from the weird, mostly unexplained ‘hometown’ plan announced by bureaucrats at the Japan International Cooperation Agency (Jica), the Ishiba government has been decidedly un-friendly to the increasing number of immigrants in Japan. Just weeks ago, the government created a new office to “crack down on foreigners ‘who do not follow our rules’”, in response to concerns over rising crime linked to immigration.
So, why has Ishiba resigned?
As I’ve been reporting for The Good Oil, Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party has been living on the razor’s edge for nearly a year, mired in corruption allegations and a stagnating economy. Ishiba won the PM’s job after his predecessor Fumio Kishida effectively resigned following shock by-election losses for the LDP. Despite polls showing that the LDP was deeply unpopular, Ishiba called a snap general election. The LDP only just hung on in minority government, its most serious defeat since 2009, when it lost government for the first time since WWII.
From then on, Ishiba’s leadership was hanging on a thread of inter-party shenanigans on the floor of the Diet. Unable to repair the LDP’s damaged reputation, he has chosen to fall on his sword.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced Sunday that he will resign amid growing calls from within the Liberal Democratic Party for him to take responsibility for a pair of poor showings at the polls, putting an end to his 11-month tenure.
At a news conference Sunday evening, Ishiba said he decided to step down because tariff negotiations with the United States, an issue he has described as a “national crisis,” reached a milestone on Friday.
“I’ve always said I will decide what to do at an appropriate timing. With US tariff negotiations reaching a certain phase, I believe now is the appropriate timing,” Ishiba said. “I decided to give way to the next generation.”
The most likely proximate trigger was a vote scheduled for yesterday, where the party would decide whether or not to hold an early party presidential election.
On Saturday evening, Ishiba met with agriculture minister Shinjiro Koizumi and LDP Vice President Yoshihide Suga, a former prime minister. The two reportedly urged him to step down ahead of Monday’s vote.
At Sunday’s news conference, Ishiba refrained from divulging the content of that conversation, only saying Suga had long stressed the importance of party unity – particularly at a time when the LDP’s support rate has dipped to rarely seen lows.
Lawmakers pushing for an early presidential election had been planning to visit LDP headquarters Monday to submit a letter expressing their will.
Ishiba will remain as PM until a new LDP president is picked, but has ruled out contesting the election. Focus now shifts to who his successor will be.
Two former economic security ministers, Sanae Takaichi and Takayuki Kobayashi, have hinted they might throw their hats in the ring again after coming up short a year ago. Some members of Ishiba’s Cabinet, including farm minister Koizumi and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, have long been seen as presidential hopefuls.
Takaichi would be Japan’s first female PM, Kobayashi its youngest – although Koizumi is even younger, at just 44. Koizumi also has an immaculate political pedigree: a fourth-generation politician and son of a former PM, the immensely popular Junichiro Koizumi.
Whoever wins, the only certainty is that they’ve got a lot of hard work ahead of them if they’re to rebuild the LDP’s battered reputation.
