Labor in for a Hiding in Qld

An electoral disaster is looming for the incumbent state Labor government in Queensland – and Anthony Albanese has to be watching nervously. The polls are all pointing to a wipeout for the hapless Steven Miles, who took the reins after Annastacia Palaszczuk read the writing on the wall last year. Like ‘Dictator Dan’ Andrews in Victoria, and Mark ‘Sneakers’ McGowan in WA, ‘Pluckachook’ grasped that the electoral boost from Covid had evaporated and got while the getting was good.

It’s conventional wisdom that state polls are their own thing and have nothing to do with federal issues, which is generally true enough. Sometimes, though, the federal implications of a state election are inescapable. The polls are pointing to a near-10 per cent swing against state Labor, in a state also showing a swing against federal Labor – translating to a 20-seat loss.

Queensland isn’t the only state swinging against Labor, either. Labor is losing ground in every state except WA. In Tasmania, once one of the most solidly Labor states, the Liberals squeaked the last election to hang on to power for 18 years. The Country Liberal Party recently regained government in the NT.

You better bet the PM is sweating.

Queensland Labor is confronting a nightmare scenario in which Premier Steven Miles and future leadership contender Shannon Fentiman lose their seats, with massive swings against the third-term government in Brisbane’s outer suburbs.

In a rerun of the 2012 “decapitation” strike by the Liberal Nat­ional Party that ousted a swag of senior Bligh government cabinet ministers, Labor is facing the possibility of opposition after the October 26 election without key members of its leadership.

To be fair, the polls aren’t hinting at anything like the 2012 devastation: that election reduced Labor to just seven seats. But it’s still looking grim – especially if the incumbent premier and his likely successor both get booted from what were safe seats.

A senior ALP source said both Mr Miles and Ms Fentiman could lose their seats. “The statewide swing against Labor is worse in outer suburbia,’’ the source said.

“When they swing out there, they swing big and it is often enough to tip them out, even with the bigger margins they are sitting on. Cost of living and crime are the big issues; where they are being felt the most is in the outer suburbs, the rental and mortgage belts.’’

The signs are clear that Labor know they’re on a hiding to nothing and getting desperate.

Just over a month out from election day and Queensland’s Labor Premier gave an insight into the type of campaign he intends to lead with his attack on the ascendant Liberal National Party over abortion.

Claiming the LNP intends to wind back 2018 laws decriminalising abortion, Miles has even invoked the language of the current US presidential race by alleging his rival, David Crisafulli, “plans to legislate control of women’s bodies”.

And no Labor campaign is complete these days without a good old ‘Mediscare’ boogeyman.

The Queensland Nurses and Midwives' Union has launched a new campaign targeted at the state’s opposition, claiming the LNP is planning to “privatise health services” – although there is no evidence to prove this – urging voters to “put the LNP last”.

The ad claims, “If your budget is stretched, you can’t afford the LNP”, reflecting a similar message to the 2016 federal Labor campaign arguing a Coalition government would privatise Medicare.

Labor first tried this one on in 2016, when it worked in their favour. But it’s been a law of diminishing returns ever since, as voters get increasingly sick of Labor crying wolf. Now, it just makes them look sad and desperate.

As well they should be.

And so should Anthony Albanese.