The BFD | Letter from the North

July 4th, 2024

Election day has arrived in the UK and the weather has been mixed. The general principle is ‘The worse the weather, the lower the turnout’ and that generally lowers the number of Labour supporters turning out to vote. The weather has been patchy, varying throughout the country, with light rain, cloudy skies and moderate temperatures (17ºC). This, combined with the national apathy, points to a low turnout, possibly as low as 60 per cent of voters.

In the 2019 election, the Conservatives got 43.6 per cent of the vote, Labour 32.1 per cent, Liberal Democrats 11.9 per cent, Scottish Nationals 3.9 per cent, Greens 2.6 per cent and sundry parties and oddballs 5.9 per cent. This was on a turnout of 67.3 per cent (2010 65.1%, 2015 66.2% and 2017 68.8%).

If the apathy causes a low turnout, it may prevent the complete annihilation of the Conservatives with polls showing a range of seats for then between 50 and 150 (out of a total of 650). The turnout varied widely between constituencies, with the highest turnout being 80.3 per cent (East Dunbartonshire) and the lowest being 49.3 per cent (Kingston upon Hull East).

With such varying results on a constituency basis, it makes predicting seats on a pure extrapolation of national voting projections extremely difficult, hence the wide range of estimated seats.

Polling stations close at 10pm UK time with the first results being announced at about 11.30pm. The bulk of the results should have been announced by 6am Friday UK time.

Exit polls will be taking place immediately once the stations close with projections available by about 10.30pm.

There are so many variables that the election is now getting interesting – the policies and campaigns were lack-lustre and totally bereft of excitement, passion or leadership. The main talking points will be how many seats Nigel Farage and the Reform Party get, this varies from estimates of one to a maximum of 13 seats on a vote of 18 per cent of turnout. Similarly, the LibDems are forecast to have up to 70 seats benefitting from regional support and the Scottish National Party being massacred in Scotland, with their seats dropping from 48 down to 20 or fewer.

Rishi Sunak’s seat is in danger, even with a current healthy majority in five figures. Still, it is rumoured that he will be off to California and the hedge fund industry if that happens.

Whatever the actual result, the one forecast that all the analysts are holding true to is that it will result in a disaster for the UK, with the only bright light possibly being the rejection of the SNP in Scotland. Just to demonstrate the typical bureaucracy in Scotland under the SNP, one polling station displayed the helpful guide on how to vote. It usefully showed how voters should rank each candidate in order of preference. Unfortunately, this is the system used for electing members to the devolved parliament in Holyrood and NOT a UK general election. This will result in spoiled ballot papers!

I’m off to get the crisps and cold drinks and settle in to watch the action. It’s guaranteed to be more exciting than the English football team.