July 5th, 2024
Election day has been and gone. As expected, fever pitch was never even approached as we just gently chugged through the results. However, the results are well worth analysing.
The Reform Party achieved four MPs out of a total of 650: this with a total voter turnout of 60 per cent, the lowest since 2001 and the second lowest since 1885. Of that, Reform received a vote share of 14 per cent.
The Conservatives had 24 per cent, Labour 34 per cent (2019 32%) and Lib Dems 12.2 per cent.
The main polling guru in the UK, the respected Professor John Curtis, had a view.
“In many ways, this looks more like an election the Conservatives have lost than one Labour has won,” wrote John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, for the BBC.
This confirms Cam Slater’s long held views that elections are lost, not won. Another similarity with New Zealand is that the Conservatives could have done a pre-election deal with Reform that may have resulted in a hung Parliament or a small Labour majority.
Given that Labour’s vote is close to their 2019 total and if one looks at the 14 per cent that Reform achieved it is apparent where the Conservative’s lost votes went.
In an astonishing result Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrat party, which is left of centre, won 71 seats: a massive 63 more than in 2019, on 12.2 per cent.
And then we have the disaster that is Scotland (only if you are a Scottish National Party supporter). Most other people were cheering as it was comeuppance for the arrogant, supercilious SPD members. In 2019 they had 48 MPs at the Westminster Parliament and had questioning rights at the PM’s question times: two questions were guaranteed, because they were the third largest party. They now have nine seats with another one being the subject of a recount, with the result due by Monday due to the remoteness of the constituency. Their place as the third party and questioning rights now belongs to the Lib Dems.
In late news, there has been a recount in South Basildon and East Thurrock resulting in another seat for Reform. They now have five seats, with the South Basildon recount resulting in a victory margin of 98 votes for Reform.
The end result is:
Labour 412 seats, 34% of turnout
Conservatives 121 seats, 24% of turnout
Lib Dems 71 seats, 12% turnout
SNP 9 seats, 3% of turnout (Scotland only)
Reform 5 seats, 14 % of turnout
Green 4 seats, 7% of turnout
All in all, a most confusing set of results to analyse.
If there is one cause for concern (other than the usual deranged calls for proportional representation), it is the rise of independent single-issue politicians. Five of these people were elected yesterday, resulting in five Labour losses. One of these was shadow minister Jonathan Ashworth, who is well respected locally and has a prominent TV profile. Ashworth was generally thought to be one of the good guys in the Labour Party. He lost out to a single-issue pro-Palestine and Gaza supporter.
Five pro-Palestine independents won seats as Israel’s war on Gaza emerged as a key issue for the UK voters.
Jeremy Corbyn held his Islington North seat as an independent candidate. Shockat Adam in Leicester South, Ayoub Khan in Birmingham Perry Barr, Adnan Hussain in Blackburn and Iqbal Mohamed in Dewsbury and Batley all won seats.
“This is for the people of Gaza,” Adam said after he was announced as the winner.
Other Labour candidates were also run close by other Gaza supporters.
This situation has all the signs of being the nascent development of an Islamic party. If that happens it would raise major concerns over regional stability and further issues of national security.
